<div dir="ltr"><div>The Vision2020 police are on my case... Four posts in one day!</div><div><br></div><div>I know nothing about the views of the person named "Art Douglas" in the Spokesman Review article on Inland Northwest climate, beyond what is in the article, nor is the issue of anthropogenic global warming in discussion in the article, or my critical responses. Maybe the journalist misquoted him, for all I know.</div><div><br></div><div>"BS" as slang does not necessarily mean "deceit." It can merely mean "nonsense" according to <a href="http://www.dictionary.com/browse/bullshit">http://www.dictionary.com/browse/bullshit</a></div><div><span class="gmail-dbox-pg"><span><span class="gmail-oneClick-link gmail-oneClick-available">noun</span> </span></span><span class="gmail-def-number"><span><span class="gmail-oneClick-link">1.</span> </span></span><span><span class="gmail-oneClick-link gmail-oneClick-available">nonsense,</span> <span class="gmail-oneClick-link gmail-oneClick-available">lies,</span> <span class="gmail-oneClick-link">or</span> <span class="gmail-oneClick-link gmail-oneClick-available">exaggeration.</span> </span></div><div><span><br></span></div><div><span>ENSO is a coupled ocean atmospheric circulation model, quite natural. Discussion of this powerful global climate/weather pattern often occurs with no reference to human induced global warming., </span></div><div><span><br></span></div><div><span>You are correct to imply, it seems, that only referencing one source on weather or climate is not the best approach to reaching the likely truth, though why it is "worship" to reference the US Climate Prediction Center requires explanation. I also have no clue as to what "conspiracy" is involved.</span></div><div><span><br></span></div><div><span>Anyway, here is another source: As you can read at the <strong>Japan Meteorological Agency </strong>website below, they roughly agree with the US Climate Prediction Center, that <strong>ENSO neutral conditions (NOT an El Nino) </strong>are likely to persist till "boreal spring," as they phrased it. The chart below shows SST prediction range through April 2017 with ocean SST not increasing to an El Nino event level.</span></div><div><span><br></span></div><div><span>If I am interpreting incorrectly, one of Vision2020's academic geniuses please offer correction.</span></div><div><span><br></span></div><div><span>By the way, the JMA is often overlooked in discussion of long term global instrumental temperature record data, oddly, given their record is credible </span></div><div><span><br></span></div><div><span>Their website indicates Feb. 10 they will update their predictions, so this could change.</span></div><div><span><font size="4"><a href="http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html">http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html</a></font></span></div><div><br></div><span><div><li><font size="4">"It is likely that La Niña conditions will decay, and then ENSO neutral conditions will persist until boreal spring (70%)". </font></li><li><font size="4">-----------------------------------------</font></li></div><div><font size="4"><a href="http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/elmonout.html#fig1">http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/elmonout.html#fig1</a><br></font></div><div><font size="4"><h2>El Niño Outlook</h2><hr><a name="fig1"></a> <p></p><center><img src="http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/gif/c_movave.gif"> </center><p><b>Fig.1</b> Five-month running mean of the SST deviation for NINO.3 predicted by <a href="http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/cps2_description.html"><font color="#000080">JMA's El Niño prediction model (JMA/MRI-CGCM2)</font></a>. </p><p>Red dots indicate observed values, and boxes indicate predictions. Each box denotes the range where the value will be included with the probability of 70%. </p></font></div><div><font size="4">---------------------------------------</font></div><div><font size="4">But given you mentioned AGW, there are scientific predictions that anthropogenic global warming will impact ENSO. sometimes called "ENSO intensification." El Nino could become more powerful, given the incontrovertible fact that anthropogenic global warming is increasing ocean temperatures, and that El Nino involves the impacts of a warm eastern Pacific on climate.</font></div><div><font size="4"><br></font></div><div><font size="4">ENSO tipping point discussed below, from the "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:"</font></div><div><font size="4">---------------------------------------</font></div><div><font size="4">Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett</font></div><div><font size="4"><br></font></div><div><font size="4"><a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full">http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full</a></font></div><div><font size="4"><br></font></div><div><font size="4">Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO<sub><font size="6">2</font></sub> emissions </font><font size="4"><br></font></div><div><font size="4"><p id="gmail-p-7">There are large uncertainties associated with tipping points, which are often considered as examples of “surprises.” Ramanathan and Feng (<a class="gmail-xref-bibr" id="gmail-xref-ref-9-1" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full#ref-9"><font color="#000080">9</font></a>) estimate the likelihood of reaching the predicted critical temperature threshold that triggers various tipping elements by considering the probability distribution for the temperature increase associated with the “committed” level of warming, which these authors report to be 2.4 °C (1.4–4.3 °C). This is the estimated average surface temperature increase above preindustrial values that would take place if the concentrations of GHGs were held constant at their 2005 values, but without aerosol forcing, land surface albedo changes, or any other anthropogenic forcing; that is, the 2.4 °C value is based on past emissions and is comprised of 0.76 °C observed surface warming plus 1.6 °C additional warming lagged in the oceans and “masked” by cooling aerosols (<a class="gmail-xref-bibr" id="gmail-xref-ref-9-2" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full#ref-9"><font color="#000080">9</font></a>). <a class="gmail-xref-fig" id="gmail-xref-fig-1-1" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full#F1"><font color="#000080">Fig. 1</font></a> presents their results for various policy-relevant tipping elements (<a class="gmail-xref-bibr" id="gmail-xref-ref-9-3" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full#ref-9"><font color="#000080">9</font></a>), most of which Lenton et al. (<a class="gmail-xref-bibr" id="gmail-xref-ref-8-3" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full#ref-8"><font color="#000080">8</font></a>) include in their analysis; for elimination of Arctic summer sea ice and melting of the Himalayan-Tibetan glaciers and the Greenland Ice Sheet, the probability that the committed warming exceeds the tipping point temperature is estimated to be larger than 50%, and it is estimated to be >10% for dieback of the Amazon Rainforest, <font size="6">more persistent and higher amplitude El Niño conditions,</font> reorganization of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, and melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The transition time scales estimated for these tipping elements vary from as little as 10 years for loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic to 50 years for Amazon and other forest die-off, to 300 years, at the low end, for melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and 300 years as the worst-case scenario for the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (<a class="gmail-xref-bibr" id="gmail-xref-ref-8-4" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full#ref-8"><font color="#000080">8</font></a>, <a class="gmail-xref-bibr" id="gmail-xref-ref-9-4" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full#ref-9"><font color="#000080">9</font></a>). Even if the actual warming is less severe than estimated by Ramanathan and Feng (<a class="gmail-xref-bibr" id="gmail-xref-ref-9-5" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full#ref-9"><font color="#000080">9</font></a>), the probability that threshold temperatures will be reached for several of the identified tipping points is very significant if emission of GHGs continues along the current path. </p><div class="gmail-fig gmail-pos-float gmail-odd" id="gmail-F1"><div class="gmail-fig-inline"><a class="gmail-fig-inline-link" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616/F1.expansion.html"><img alt="Fig. 1." src="http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616/F1.medium.gif"></a><div class="gmail-callout"><span>View larger version:</span><ul class="gmail-callout-links"> <li><a class="gmail-fig-inline-link" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616/F1.expansion.html"><font color="#000080">In this page</font></a></li> <li><a class="gmail-in-nw-vis" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616/F1.expansion.html" target="_blank"><font color="#000080">In a new window</font></a></li> </ul> <ul class="gmail-fig-services"><li class="gmail-ppt-link"><a href="http://www.pnas.org/powerpoint/106/49/20616/F1"><font color="#000080">Download PPT</font></a></li> </ul> </div> </div><div class="gmail-fig-caption"><span class="gmail-fig-label">Fig. 1.</span> <p class="gmail-first-child" id="gmail-p-8">“Probability distribution for the committed warming by GHGs between 1750 and 2005. … Shown are the tipping elements [large-scale components of the Earth's system] and the temperature threshold range that initiates the tipping.…” Reproduced from Ramanathan and Feng (2008) (<a class="gmail-xref-bibr" id="gmail-xref-ref-9-6" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20616.full#ref-9"><font color="#000080">9</font></a>). </p></div></div></font></div><div><font size="2"><span><br></span></font></div><div><br></div></span><div>----------------------------------------------</div><div><br></div><div class="gmail_extra"><div class="gmail_quote">On Thu, Feb 9, 2017 at 8:33 PM, g crabtree <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:direoutcome@gmail.com" target="_blank">direoutcome@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:</div><div class="gmail_quote"><br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;padding-left:1ex;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid"><div dir="ltr">You do not refer to the remarks Mr. Douglas made at the Spokane Ag Expo as somewhat different from your own current understanding. Instead you use the term BS which suggests deceit. The question that leaps to mind has got to be to be to what end? How does predicting to a group of pacific northwest farmers "warmer and drier weather starting in March" further the anti anthropomorphic global warming crusade? Or, are you simply speaking up in defense of the all knowing and all powerful NOAA, blessed be it's name. The first suggests conspiracy and the second hints at worship. Your previous posts considered, either or both seem plausible. Am I overlooking a third?<span class="gmail-HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"><div><br></div><div>g</div></font></span></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote"><span>On Thu, Feb 9, 2017 at 6:34 PM, Ted Moffett <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com" target="_blank">starbliss@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br></span><div><div class="gmail-h5"><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;padding-left:1ex;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid"><div dir="ltr"><div><span class="gmail-m_-989981219528202883m_9119701328152159647gmail-gI"><span class="gmail-m_-989981219528202883m_9119701328152159647gmail-gD" name="Tom Hansen">Tom Hansen</span> <span class="gmail-m_-989981219528202883m_9119701328152159647gmail-go"><span><</span><a href="mailto:thansen@moscow.com" target="_blank">thansen@moscow.com</a><span>></span></span> quoted:<br></span><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)"><br>Courtesy of today's (February 8, 2017) Spokesman-Review.<br><br>"An El Nino warming in
the tropics is emerging along the coast of Peru and is expected to
cause drier and warmer weather starting in March, Douglas said."<br>------------------------------<wbr>-----------<br></span></div><div><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">Oh really? <br><br>I just checked ENSO diagostic from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, dated 2-6-17, and they do not currently predict what the quote above indicates regarding El Nino. <br></span></div><div><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)"><br>Someone correct me if I am wrong!<br><br></span></div><div><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">Only a 35% percent chance of El Nino developing is predicted, and not until August through October, as you can read below.<br></span></div><div><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)"><br>I suppose it is possible that in a mere two days some dramatic shift happened in the eastern Pacific ocean, but I doubt it.<br><br></span>Why not go to the most credible source on ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscilation) for current status and predictions of US Northwest weather?<br><br></div><div>At the website below the following prediction is given, pasted in below, which can be read by scanning way down the pdf:<br></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf" target="_blank">http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/p<wbr>roducts/analysis_monitoring/la<wbr>nina/enso_evolution-status-fcs<wbr>ts-web.pdf</a><br><br><div style="font-family:sans-serif"><font size="4">ENSO: Recent Evolution, </font></div><div style="font-family:sans-serif"><font size="4">Current Status and Predictions</font></div><div style="font-family:sans-serif"><font size="4">Update prepared by:</font></div><div style="font-family:sans-serif"><font size="4">Climate Prediction Center / NCEP </font></div><div style="font-family:sans-serif"><font size="4">6 February 2017<br><br></font></div><div style="font-family:sans-serif"><font size="4">"ENSO -neutral is favored through mid-2017, with smaller chances of El Nino (35%) and La Nina (15%) <br></font></div><div style="font-family:sans-serif"><font size="4">by August- September-October (ASO) 2017."<br>------------------------------<wbr>---------<br></font></div><div style="font-family:sans-serif"><font size="4">Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett<br></font></div><div style="font-family:sans-serif"><font size="4"><br></font></div><div class="gmail_quote">On Wed, Feb 8, 2017 at 4:31 AM, Tom Hansen <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:thansen@moscow.com" target="_blank">thansen@moscow.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;padding-left:1ex;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid"><div dir="auto"><div><span></span></div><div><div>Courtesy of today's (February 8, 2017) Spokesman-Review.</div><div id="gmail-m_-989981219528202883m_9119701328152159647m_2660034944310595817AppleMailSignature"><br></div><div id="gmail-m_-989981219528202883m_9119701328152159647m_2660034944310595817AppleMailSignature">------------------------------<wbr>---</div><div id="gmail-m_-989981219528202883m_9119701328152159647m_2660034944310595817AppleMailSignature"><h1 class="gmail-m_-989981219528202883m_9119701328152159647m_2660034944310595817f2 gmail-m_-989981219528202883m_9119701328152159647m_2660034944310595817f1-l gmail-m_-989981219528202883m_9119701328152159647m_2660034944310595817chronicle gmail-m_-989981219528202883m_9119701328152159647m_2660034944310595817lh-solid gmail-m_-989981219528202883m_9119701328152159647m_2660034944310595817mb2" style="margin:22px 0px 0.5rem;color:rgb(51,51,51);line-height:1;font-family:"chronicle display a","chronicle display b",serif;font-size:3rem;box-sizing:border-box;font-feature-settings:"liga" 1,"dlig" 1">Weather expert predicts hot, dry summer due to El Niño</h1><div><br></div></div><div id="gmail-m_-989981219528202883m_9119701328152159647m_2660034944310595817AppleMailSignature"><p style="margin:0px 0px 17.6px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">A weather expert who has handed down predictions at the Spokane Ag Expo for three decades says the Inland Northwest can expect a summer that’s hotter and drier than normal.</span></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 17.6px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">An emerging El Nino will warm things up and dry them out in coming months, a meteorology expert told farmers Tuesday in Spokane.</span></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 17.6px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">Art Douglas, an emeritus professor of meteorology at Creighton University, was the keynote speaker at the opening session of the 40th annual Spokane Ag Expo at the Convention Center. The expo, in conjunction with the annual Pacific Northwest Farm Forum, runs through Thursday.</span></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 17.6px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">Douglas told farmers and agriculture industry workers that when temperatures warm, then cool and now warm again in the tropical Pacific, it has a strong effect on current weather and the weather expected when spring arrives and turns to summer harvest.</span></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 17.6px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">“Storms are going to have a much harder time getting into the Northwest,” said Douglas, who taught weather at Creighton University and now is a consultant.</span></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 17.6px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">An El Nino warming in the tropics is emerging along the coast of Peru and is expected to cause drier and warmer weather starting in March, Douglas said.</span></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 17.6px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">An El Nino warming of the tropics from 2014 to early 2016 led to a major drought along the West Coast in 2015 and 2016. It also sent warmer water into the eastern Pacific as far north as Alaska, which has been an ingredient in storm formation since October.</span></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 17.6px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">The La Nina cooling of the tropics that began last fall energized the storm track over California, Oregon, Nevada, Idaho and Washington since October. Those storms were fueled in part by the large area of warmer water off the coast that was the remnant of the previous El Nino, Douglas said.</span></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 17.6px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">El Nino takes its name from the development of warmer water along the coast of Peru around Christmas and the celebration of “the little boy.”</span></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 17.6px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">As for crop production, Douglas said Pacific Northwest grain crops should be in good shape with ample soil moisture available and some spring storms to help keep the ground moist.</span></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 17.6px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">A hot and dry summer is good for harvesting mature grain crops but also could cause more difficult growing conditions looking ahead to planting winter wheat next fall.</span></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 17.6px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">In contrast, the grain belt of the central U.S. should see lots of spring rain and probably violent storms, Douglas said. Crops there should be bountiful as the coming storms make up for a moisture deficit, he said.</span></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 17.6px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">Elsewhere around the world, Australia and the Black Sea growing areas have been dry and crops may suffer. China and northern India stand good chances for bountiful crops, he said, adding that he sees a mixed bag for South America.</span></p></div><div id="gmail-m_-989981219528202883m_9119701328152159647m_2660034944310595817AppleMailSignature">------------------------------<wbr>---<br><br><div><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">Seeya 'round town, Moscow, because . . .</span></div><div><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)"><br></span></div><div><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">"Moscow Cares" (the most fun you can have with your pants on)</span></div><div><a style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)" href="http://www.moscowcares.com/" target="_blank"><font color="#000000">http://www.MoscowCares.com</font></a></div><span class="gmail-m_-989981219528202883m_9119701328152159647HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"><div><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)"> </span></div><div><div><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">Tom Hansen</span></div><div><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">Moscow, Idaho</span></div></div><div> </div></font></span></div></div></div><br></blockquote></div></div></div></blockquote></div></div></div><br></div>
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