[Vision2020] NOAA: "New report: human-caused climate change increased severity of extreme events in 2014"

Ted Moffett starbliss at gmail.com
Mon Nov 23 14:02:19 PST 2015

It's a hoax!

Don't be deceived by the socialist climate scientists propaganda designed
to scare the public into big government UN regulation of the capitalist
free market via global warming hysteria!

*New report finds human-caused climate change increased the severity of
many extreme events in 2014 *

*November 5, 2015*

Human activities, such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use, influenced
specific extreme weather and climate events in 2014, including tropical
cyclones in the central Pacific, heavy rainfall in Europe, drought in East
Africa, and stifling heat waves in Australia, Asia, and South America,
according to a new report released today. The report, “Explaining Extreme
Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective
<http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/explaining-extreme-events-2014>” published
by the *Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society*, addresses the
natural and human causes of individual extreme events from around the world
in 2014, including Antarctica. NOAA scientists served as three of the five
lead editors on the report.

"For each of the past four years, this report has demonstrated that
individual events, like temperature extremes, have often been shown to be
linked to additional atmospheric greenhouse gases caused by human
activities, while other extremes, such as those that are precipitation
related, are less likely to be convincingly linked to human activities,”
said Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D., director of NOAA’s National Centers for
Environmental Information <https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/>. “As the science of
event attribution continues to advance, so too will our ability to detect
and distinguish the effects of long-term climate change and natural
variability on individual extreme events. Until this is fully realized,
communities would be well-served to look beyond the range of past extreme
events to guide future resiliency efforts."

n this year’s report, 32 groups of scientists from around the world
investigate 28 individual extreme events in 2014 and break out various
factors that led to the extreme events, including the degree to which
natural variability and human-induced climate change played a role. When
human influence for an event cannot be conclusively identified with the
scientific tools available today, this means that if there is a human
contribution, it cannot be distinguished from natural climate variability.

The report this year added analysis on new types of events including
wildfires and Antarctic sea ice extent, and in one case looked at how land
use patterns may influence the impacts and severity from precipitation.

Key findings for each of the assessed events include:

*North America:*

   - Overall probability of California wildfires has increased due to
   human-induced climate change, however, no specific link could be made for
   the 2014 fire event.

   - Though cold winters still occur in the upper Midwest, they are less
   likely due to climate change.

   - Cold temperatures along the eastern U.S. were not influenced by
   climate change, and eastern U.S. winter temperatures are becoming less

   - Tropical cyclones that hit Hawaii were substantially more likely
   because of human-induced climate change.

   - Extreme 2013-14 winter storm season over much of North America was
   driven mainly by natural variability and not human caused climate change.

   - Human-induced climate change and land-use both played a role in the
   flooding that occurred in the southeastern Canadian Prairies.

*Around the World:*

*South America*

   - The Argentinean heat wave of December 2013 was made five times more
   likely because of human-induced climate change.

   - Water shortages in Southeast Brazil were not found to be largely
   influenced by climate change, but increasing population and water
   consumption raised vulnerability.

*Europe *

   - All-time record number of storms over the British Isles in winter
   2013-14 cannot be linked directly to human-induced warming of the tropical
   west Pacific.

   - Extreme rainfall in the United Kingdom during the winter of 2013-2014
   was not linked to human-caused climate change.

   - Hurricane Gonzolo was within historical range of strength for
   hurricanes transitioning to extratropical storms over Europe.

   - Extreme rainfall in the Cévennes Mountains in southern France was
   three times more likely than in 1950 due to climate change.

   - Human influence increased the probability of record annual mean warmth
   over Europe, NE Pacific, and NW Atlantic.

*Middle East and Africa*

   - Two studies showed that the drought in East Africa was made more
   severe because of climate change.

   - The role of climate change in the Middle East drought of 2014 remains
   unclear. One study showed a role in the southern Levant region of Syria,
   while another study, which looked more broadly at the Middle East, did not
   find a climate change influence.


   - Extreme heat events in Korea and China were linked to human-caused
   climate change.

   - Drought in northeastern Asia, China and Singapore could not
   conclusively be linked to climate change.

   - The high west Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 2014 was largely
   driven by natural variability.

   - Devastating 2014 floods in Jakarta are becoming more likely due to
   climate change and other human influences.

   - Meteorological drivers that led to the extreme Himalayan snowstorm of
   2014 have increased in likelihood due to climate change.

   - Human influence increased the probability of regional high sea surface
   temperature extremes over the western tropical and northeast Pacific Ocean
   during 2014.

*Australia *

   - Four independent studies all pointed toward human influence causing a
   substantial increase in the likelihood and severity of heat waves across
   Australia in 2014.

   - It is likely that human influences on climate increased the odds of
   the extreme high pressure anomalies south of Australia in August 2014 that
   were associated with frosts, lowland snowfalls and reduced rainfall.

   - The risk of an extreme five-day July rainfall event over Northland,
   New Zealand, such as was observed in early July 2014, has likely increased
   due to human influences on climate.

*Antarctica *

   - All-time maximum of Antarctic sea ice in 2014 resulted chiefly from
   anomalous winds that transported cold air masses away from the Antarctic
   continent, enhancing thermodynamic sea ice production far offshore. This
   type of event is becoming less likely because of climate change.

“Understanding our influence on specific extreme weather events is
ground-breaking science that will help us adapt to climate change,” said
Stephanie C. Herring, Ph.D., lead editor for the report at NOAA’s National
Centers for Environmental Information. “As the field of climate attribution
science grows, resource managers, the insurance industry, and many others
can use the information more effectively for improved decision making and
to help communities better prepare for future extreme events.”

The report was edited by Herring, along with Martin P. Hoerling, NOAA’s
Earth System Research Laboratory; James Kossin, NOAA’s National Centers for
Environmental Information; Thomas Peterson, World Meteorological
Organization’s Commission for Climatology and formerly with NOAA's National
Centers for Environmental Information; and Peter A. Stott, UK Met Office
Hadley Centre. The report includes a global authorship from 21 countries.
View the full report online

"AMS is pleased to collaborate with NOAA on providing the public with an
accessible, peer-reviewed basis for understanding our changing world," said
AMS Executive Director Keith Seitter. "Between the State of the Climate
report earlier this year and now this annual Explaining Extremes
collection, an ever clearer picture emerges of our advancing scientific
capabilities to identify how climate change is affecting us."

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's
environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to
conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook
, Twitter
our other social media channels <http://www.noaa.gov/socialmedia/>.


Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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