[Vision2020] ObamaCare Premiums will increase 5-6% for 2015

Gier, Nicholas (ngier@uidaho.edu) ngier at uidaho.edu
Thu Feb 5 13:35:49 PST 2015

Hi Gary,

The figures I gave were projections for 2015.  You are citing 2014 figures.  The rate of increase, just as in Mass., are going down steadily.  The people who lost their plans last year will most likely see the same 5-6% over premiums that were going up and up before the ACA.


From: vision2020-bounces at moscow.com <vision2020-bounces at moscow.com> on behalf of Gary Crabtree <moscowlocksmith at gmail.com>
Sent: Thursday, February 5, 2015 11:16 AM
To: Nicholas Gier
Cc: vision2020
Subject: Re: [Vision2020] ObamaCare Premiums will increase 5-6% for 2015

"With regard to Gary Crabtree's claim that the millions who lost their health plans received new plans with higher premiums, all that I could find is what is appended below."​

"Without exact data, I can speculate with some confidence that those who lost their plans are in better and more comprehensive plans at perhaps slightly higher premiums.

I suppose that I should accept any admission that I was right as a miracle and call it good but, leaving well enough alone is just not in my nature. You admit the higher part of my contention, let's look at the "slightly."

Since CNBC is a source you seem to like, this from their web site:

"In analysis published this week<http://www.healthpocket.com/healthcare-research/infostat/obamacare-2014-premiums-higher-than-pre-reform-market?_ga_variation=1&utm_expid=60784014-14.Zlx56I0SQAqKSdO9tJpZVg.1&utm_referrer=http://www.healthpocket.com/#.VFPMO_nF-bM>, the website HealthPocket.com<http://www.healthpocket.com/> compared the average premiums people paid in 2013, before Obamacare plans went on sale, to 2014 plan prices. HealthPocket looked at premiums paid by non-smoking men and women, ages 23, 30 and 63, in all 50 states and Washington, D.C.

"HealthPocket found that the average health insurance premium increased by double digits for each group examined, though some groups saw a much steeper increase than others," the report said.

For 23-year-old non-smoking men, the average premium for all plans jumped 78 percent in 2014, the report said. Women of the same age saw a 45-percent hike.

For 30-year-olds, the increases were 73 percent for men and 35 percent for women. Only the 63-year-old age group saw bigger price hikes for women, with females paying 37.5 percent more for insurance on average in 2014, and men paying an average of nearly 23 percent more."

Perhaps your definition of slight and mine are slightly different?


On Wed, Feb 4, 2015 at 6:17 PM, Nicholas Gier <ngier006 at gmail.com<mailto:ngier006 at gmail.com>> wrote:

With regard to Gary Crabtree's claim that the millions who lost their health plans received new plans with higher premiums, all that I could find is what is appended below.  As was the case in RomneyCare, Massachusetts led the nation in declining health care premiums, and now ObamaCare is effecting that trend nation-wide. If we had done Medicare for All, premiums would be even lower. For years health care premiums were increasing at double-digit rates and administrative costs for pre-ACA plans were in the 20-30 percent range with Medicare admini. costs below 10 percent.

Without exact data, I can speculate with some confidence that those who lost their plans are in better and more comprehensive plans at perhaps slightly higher premiums.


On average, consumers can expect modest increases of about 5.6 percent from last year according to PriceWaterhouseCooper<http://www.pwc.com/us/en/health-industries/health-research-institute/aca-state-exchanges.jhtml>, which analyzed data from 43 states and Washington D.C.

To be sure, health premiums increase each year and have long before Obamacare. Now, health experts say that because of several provisions in the law, premium price growth is actually slowing.

The average proposed premium was about $381. Of course, the price of premiums varies widely from region to region. In Colorado, for example, rates range from a 22 percent decrease to a 35 percent increase, according to the study.

A separate analysis by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation<http://www.rwjf.org/content/dam/farm/reports/issue_briefs/2014/rwjf416395> found that premiums would increase an average of less than 5 percent from last year.

Sticker shock? Not. Obamacare's proposed 2015 rates
Dan Mangan<http://www.cnbc.com/id/100731877>
Friday, 3 Oct 2014 | 12:53 PM ETCNBC.com

Dire warnings by Obamacare opponents of dramatically higher insurance premium prices in 2015 are not being borne out nationally, according to new data<http://www.pwc.com/us/en/health-industries/health-research-institute/aca-state-exchanges.jhtml> showing proposed prices are rising moderately, on average, nationally.

While the single-digit average price increases, coupled with a rise in the number of insurers selling Obamacare plans for next year, suggest enrollment could remain fairly strong in the new form of insurance in the short term, questions remain about relative price stability over the long term.

Six states and the District of Columbia already issued approved rates for individual insurance plans in 2015, and the average premium is rising just 2.5 percent, PricewaterhouseCoopers found in its updated report<http://www.pwc.com/us/en/health-industries/health-research-institute/aca-state-exchanges.jhtml>. These plans go on sale Nov. 15.

The average premium in those states—across different price tiers and ages—would be $327 per month. But that average doesn't reflect the effect of federal subsidies that about 85 percent of Obamacare enrollees receive. Those subsidies, which are based on income, can substantially cut actual payments.

And in the 38 states and D.C. that have finalized rates or released proposed rates for such plans, the average premium would rise 6 percent, PwC said. The average premium would be $382 per month, before subsidies are factored in.

Just one state so far, Louisiana, has reported that rates are proposed to rise more than 10 percent. Cajun State residents are faced with an average proposed premium hike of 15.3 percent for individual plans. At the other end of the spectrum are Oregon's finalized rates, which are 2.5 percent lower than that state's 2014 premiums.

"I think it's probably coming as a relief to many that we're not seeing double-digit rate increases," said Ceci Connolly, managing director of PwC's Health Research Institute. "I think that the worries about excessively high costs and prices have not materialized."

Connolly said the 6 percent average tracks "very closely what the average [premium increase] is in in the employer-based market," which is where most Americans get health coverage. And that average is 2.2 percentage points lower than what PwC found when it first began tracking proposed rate hike disclosures in states in mid-summer, she said.

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