[Vision2020] yay! we passed $18 trillion!

Thu Dec 11 11:02:48 PST 2014

Thank you for the information.  I will have to do some research when I have
more time.

Paul

On Thu, Dec 11, 2014 at 9:00 AM, Ron Force <rforce2003 at yahoo.com> wrote:

> The question of debt on economic growth was a hot topic a year or two ago.
> Reinhart & Rogoff (Harvard) produced a study showing that debt greater than
> 90% of GDP adversely affected economic growth. Unfortunately, a grad
> student asked them for their data, and found a number of errors in their
> spreadsheet. When these were corrected, the effect disappeared. Most other
> studies haven't found a relationship.
>  Certainly debt to GDP ratios have been higher than the US's current 70%.
> It was 134% at the end of WW2, prior to a period of unprecedented growth.
> In Japan, the ratio is 200%, and the government can still sell long-term
> bonds at 1% interest.
>
> Most progressive economists hold that as long as the economy grows faster
> than the debt, and the country borrows in its own currency, there's little
> chance of a debt crisis. Much of the hoo-rah about US government debt has
> been fueled by Pete Peterson, the multi-billionaire investment banker, who
> endowed the Peterson Institute with a billion dollars to push the idea that
> the solution to the debt problem is reducing or eliminating Social
> Security, Medicare & Medicaid. The debt panic seems to have subsided with
> the deficit, but some economists say that the consequences of the rapid
> reduction has been the slow economic recovery.
>
> The problem with paying down the debt is that historically when that's
> been tried a recession or depression follows soon after, since if you
> shrink the debt, you also shrink the money supply. Sorry I don't have any
> links for you as usual, I'm busy with other stuff and can't take the time
> to do extensive research. The above stuff is from my reading over the last
> several years and following the economists Paul Krugman, Brad DeLong, Dean
> Baker and Mark Thoma.
>
> Ron Force
> Moscow Idaho USA
>
>
>   On Wednesday, December 10, 2014 11:14 AM, Paul Rumelhart <
> paul.rumelhart at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
> That's basically my question.  My common sense tells me that having debts
> larger than what we can even make in a year is a bad idea.  Weren't we all
> rabidly complaining about this under Bush II?  What if they start selling
> oil in euros?  What if the dollar takes a nosedive for some other reason?
> Hell, a quick Google shows that there are 117,538,000 households in the
> US.  Why not spend another 1.17538 trillion and give us all a check for
> $10,000?  Or spend $11.7538 trillion and give us all $100,000?  Why not cut
> the fat in our budget just as a matter of principle?
>
> Paul
>
> On Wed, Dec 10, 2014 at 11:03 AM, Sunil <sunilramalingam at hotmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> Paul,
>
> What economic theories are used to analyze those questions? What are the
> competing viewpoints? On what basis should we decide whether we should
> sleep at night?
>
> Sunil
>
> ------------------------------
> Date: Wed, 10 Dec 2014 10:54:04 -0800
> From: paul.rumelhart at gmail.com
> To: ngier at uidaho.edu
> CC: vision2020 at moscow.com
>
> Subject: Re: [Vision2020] yay! we passed $18 trillion!
>
> Is there a number past which we should be worried when it comes to our
> national debt?  Estimates put the GDP for the US at $17.416 trillion (
> http://www.statista.com/statistics/263591/gross-domestic-product-gdp-of-the-united-states/).
> Is it smart to have our national debt be larger than our gross domestic
> product?  Is there a line past which we shouldn't sleep so soundly at
> night?  The national debt has gone up $2 billion since I looked at it two
> days ago.  When do we hit the number beyond which it is dangerous to have
> that much debt as a nation?  Whatever the number is when the Republicans
> take control?
>
> Paul
>
> On Tue, Dec 9, 2014 at 10:23 PM, Gier, Nicholas (ngier at uidaho.edu) <
> ngier at uidaho.edu> wrote:
>
>  Hi Ron,
>
>
> Thanks for the correction.  I'll sleep easier tonight.
>
>
> nfg  (guess what one of my mean teenage bosses made the "f" into)
>
>  ------------------------------
> *From:* Ron Force <rforce2003 at yahoo.com>
> *Sent:* Tuesday, December 9, 2014 10:02 PM
> *To:* Gier, Nicholas (ngier at uidaho.edu); Paul Rumelhart
>
> *Cc:* Moscow Vision 2020
> *Subject:* Re: [Vision2020] yay! we passed $18 trillion!
>
>   Only a third of US debt is owned by foreign countries--China and Japan
> each have 7%. 65% is held domestically: Social Security (16%), other
> government entities (13%) and the Federal Reserve (12%).
> Who Owns The Most U.S. Debt?
> <http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2014/10/28/who-owns-the-most-u-s-debt/>
>
>
>  [image: image]
> <http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2014/10/28/who-owns-the-most-u-s-debt/>
>
>
>
>
>
>   Who Owns The Most U.S. Debt?
> <http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2014/10/28/who-owns-the-most-u-s-debt/>
> The U.S. debt continues to climb. Who owns the majority of it? How much is
> owned by foreign nations? The answers might surprise you.
>    View on www.forbes.com
> <http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2014/10/28/who-owns-the-most-u-s-debt/>
>  Preview by Yahoo
>
>
>
> Ron Force
> Moscow Idaho USA
>
>
>   On Tuesday, December 9, 2014 9:51 PM, "Gier, Nicholas (ngier at uidaho.edu)"
> <ngier at uidaho.edu> wrote:
>
>
>   Hi Don and Others,
>
>  The debt tripled under Reagan, and his advisers were wise to convince
> him to raise taxes in 7 years of his 8-year term.  I posted all of the data
> here on the Vision.  See all of my columns on Reagan at
> http://www.NickGier.com/ReagamPage.htm. <http://www.nickgier.com/>  For
> debt for each president see
> http://www.NickGier.com/DebtGOPObamaTables.pdf.
> <http://www.nickgier.com/DebtGOPObamaTables.pdf>  As I wrote in a recent
> column, Reagan and Bush II borrowed money to wage one unnecessary cold war
> and two hot wars, and Obama borrowed money at near zero interest rates to
> save the economy and gave 8 million plus people health insurance.  By 2021,
> the two largest items on the national debt will be Iraq and Afghan wars and
> the loss of revenue due to the Great Recession.
>
>  Japan's debt is 200% of GDP, but they owe it all to themselves.  The
> problem with our debt is that the Chinese and other sovereign wealth funds
> (e.g., Norway and Saudi Arabia) own a great deal of it.
>
>  nfg
>   ------------------------------
> *From:* vision2020-bounces at moscow.com <vision2020-bounces at moscow.com> on
> behalf of Paul Rumelhart <paul.rumelhart at gmail.com>
> *Sent:* Tuesday, December 9, 2014 7:18 PM
> *To:* Ron Force
> *Cc:* Moscow Vision 2020
> *Subject:* Re: [Vision2020] yay! we passed $18 trillion!
>
>   Well, I'm not an economist.  I do think that $18 trillion is perhaps
> both feet across the ridiculous line, though.
>
>  There are a lot of things about how the system works that I find
> strange.  For example, I googled how much cash there is in circulation at
> the moment.  According to this link (
> http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/currency_12773.htm), there is roughly
> $1.29 trillion in circulation, with $1.25 trillion of that being in the
> form of Federal Reserve Notes.  So it's all just smoke and mirrors anyway.
>
>  Hopefully our currency will stay strong on the international stage,
> otherwise we will probably be having quite a different conversation.
>
>  And I know the idea is old-fashioned, but maybe we should be looking
> closer at how much bang we are getting for our buck instead of just adding
> some more to a fictitious number somewhere and hoping it will all sort
> itself out sometime.
>
> Paul
>
> On Tue, Dec 9, 2014 at 10:33 AM, Ron Force <rforce2003 at yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>  And this is a problem...because?
> Debt for a sovereign government that issues its own currency and has the
> power to tax is different from an individual or a government that doesn't
> have its own currency (ie, Greece). Read here:
>
>  The Federal Budget is NOT like a Household Budget: Here’s Why |
> Roosevelt Institute
> <http://www.rooseveltinstitute.org/new-roosevelt/federal-budget-not-household-budget-here-s-why>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>  The Federal Budget is NOT like a Household Budget: Here’s Why |
> Roosevelt Institute
> <http://www.rooseveltinstitute.org/new-roosevelt/federal-budget-not-household-budget-here-s-why>
> The Federal Budget is NOT like a Household Budget: Here’s Why L. Randall
> Wray takes the fear and loathing out of understanding federal budget
> deficits.
>    View on www.rooseveltinstitute.org
> <http://www.rooseveltinstitute.org/new-roosevelt/federal-budget-not-household-budget-here-s-why>
>  Preview by Yahoo
>
>    It's the same thing my Econ 101 professor taught back in the last
> century.
>
> Ron Force
> Moscow Idaho USA
>
>
>    On Monday, December 8, 2014 3:29 PM, Paul Rumelhart <
> paul.rumelhart at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>     I hadn't looked at http://usdebtclock.org for a while, and just
> noticed that we passed the $18 trillion dollar mark.  I'm not sure exactly
> when we crossed it.
>
>  Perhaps we should be doing something about this.
>
>  Paul
>
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