[Vision2020] New Polls show that GOP may lose House

[Scott Dredge]

<It doesn't matter who paid for a poll, only what methods were used in the collection of the data.>

True enough.  That's why the poll should be conducted amongst 'likely voters' and the pollsters shouldn't be trying taint the outcome.  Coincidence that the polling showed that Democrats 'might' take over 17 seats which is exactly the magic number that they need?  And how about this prejudicing of the respondents: 'In only three districts do Republican incumbents best generic Democratic challengers after voters are told the incumbent supported the government shutdown.'

A few years ago I heard a guy on the radio saying that Reagan's approval rating was very low based on some on the street polling that he had conducted.  He first ask respondents if they had approved of Reagan.  If they said 'yes', he'd follow up with 'well I'm gay and Reagan did nothing to stop the spread of aids when he was in office, do you still approve of him?'  And all of them had responded 'no' because he once he told them he was gay, he claimed they would respond honestly to him.  All except for one elderly gentleman who he had essentially deemed stubborn and belligerent.

<It is not an election year, so we cannot predict what will occur 
in a future election that far out. One year is a lifetime politically.>

Correct.  The shutdown will be long gone and forgotten 1+ year from now at the polls.  Even so, I'll go out on a limb and predict double digit gains in the House for Republicans.

<If Congress sees fit to shut down the government, that is their 
right, but they should not be permitted to collect a pay check or 
campaign donations, or use any government property or building while it 
is shut down. >

I doubt this would influence them to move any faster toward resolution.

-Scott

Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 05:07:04 -0700
From: donovanjarnold2005 at yahoo.com
Subject: Re: [Vision2020] New Polls show that GOP may lose House
To: scooterd408 at hotmail.com; ngier006 at gmail.com; vision2020 at moscow.com

It doesn't matter who paid for a poll, only what methods were used in the collection of the data. It is not an election year, so we cannot predict what will occur in a future election that far out. One year is a lifetime politically. . If Congress sees fit to shut down the government, that is their right, but they should not be permitted to collect a pay check or campaign donations, or use any government property or building while it is shut down.  Donovan J. Arnold
        From: Scott Dredge <scooterd408 at hotmail.com>
 To: Nicholas Gier <ngier006 at gmail.com>; viz <vision2020 at moscow.com> 
 Sent: Monday, October 7, 2013 1:20 AM
 Subject: Re: [Vision2020] New Polls show that GOP may lose House
   




Here's the associated link:

http://front.moveon.org/24-moveon-polls-show-gop-could-lose-house-in-wake-of-shutdown/#.UlJshCQhNpc

The survey was paid for by moveon.org which is a liberal organization.  The memo at the above link states 'The surveys, commissioned and paid for by MoveOn.org Political Action, show Republican incumbents behind among registered voters in head-to-head contests with generic Democratic challengers in 17 districts. In four other districts, the incumbent Republican falls behind a generic Democratic candidate
 after respondents are told that the Republican incumbent supported the government shutdown. In only three districts do Republican incumbents best generic Democratic challengers after voters are told the incumbent supported the government shutdown.'

'Democrats must pick up 17 seats to win control of the House. These poll results make clear that if the election were held today, such a pickup would be well within reach.'

Barring any unforeseen disaster that can be conclusively pinned on the Republicans over a
 year from now, it's safe to say that the Democrats won't be picking up 17 House seats.  However, if passed mid-term results are any predictor of future performance, the Democrats would be at risk of losing well more than 17 House seats.

I'd not be wishing time away for the 2014 elections.  We'll all be yet another year older and the election will likely be a dud that wasn't worth waiting for.

-Scott

Date: Sun, 6 Oct 2013 19:44:42 -0700
From: ngier006 at gmail.com
To: vision2020 at moscow.com
Subject: [Vision2020] New Polls show that GOP may lose House




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