[Vision2020] National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee Jan. 2013 Report: 1146 Pages

[Ted Moffett]

New report referenced below indicating the evidence for anthropogenic
climate change has increased and impacts are now occurring.

Anthropogenic climate change is not a speculative theory regarding a
potential future, but a scientifically verified empirical reality we are
now living with.

I've pasted in some content from the beginning of this report, which in
full exhaustively covers numerous aspects of the impacts of anthropogenic
climate change.

Full report at this website, but consider it is 1146 pages long as it
appears from this website:

http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/download/NCAJan11-2013-publicreviewdraft-fulldraft.pdf
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Draft for Public Comment Introduction – Letter to the American People
(v. 11 Jan 2013)
DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMENT
1
Climate Change and the American People 1

Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved
firmly into the present. 2 This report of the National Climate Assessment
and Development Advisory Committee 3 concludes that the evidence for a
changing climate has strengthened considerably since the last 4 National
Climate Assessment report, written in 2009. Many more impacts of
human-caused 5 climate change have now been observed. Corn producers in
Iowa, oyster growers in Washington 6 State, and maple syrup producers in
Vermont have observed changes in their local climate that 7 are outside of
their experience. So, too, have coastal planners from Florida to Maine,
water 8 managers in the arid Southwest and parts of the Southeast, and
Native Americans on tribal lands 9 across the nation. 10

Americans are noticing changes all around them. Summers are longer and
hotter, and periods of 11 extreme heat last longer than any living American
has ever experienced. Winters are generally 12 shorter and warmer. Rain
comes in heavier downpours, though in many regions there are longer 13 dry
spells in between. 14

Other changes are even more dramatic. Residents of some coastal cities see
their streets flood 15 more regularly during storms and high tides. Inland
cities near large rivers also experience more 16 flooding, especially in
the Midwest and Northeast. Hotter and drier weather and earlier snow 17
melt mean that wildfires in the West start earlier in the year, last later
into the fall, threaten more 18 homes, cause more evacuations, and burn
more acreage. In Alaska, the summer sea ice that once 19 protected the
coasts has receded, and fall storms now cause more erosion and damage that
is 20 severe enough that some communities are already facing relocation. 21

Scientists studying climate change confirm that these observations are
consistent with Earth’s 22 climatic trends. Long-term, independent records
from weather stations, satellites, ocean buoys, 23 tide gauges, and many
other data sources all confirm the fact that our nation, like the rest of
the 24 world, is warming, precipitation patterns are changing, sea level is
rising, and some types of 25 extreme weather events are increasing. These
and other observed climatic changes are having 26 wide-ranging impacts in
every region of our country and most sectors of our economy. Some of 27
these changes can be beneficial, such as longer growing seasons in many
regions and a longer 28 shipping season on the Great Lakes. But many more
have already proven to be detrimental, 29 largely because society and its
infrastructure were designed for the climate of the past, not for the 30
rapidly changing climate of the present or the future. 31

This National Climate Assessment collects, integrates, and assesses
observations and research 32 from around the country, helping to show what
is actually happening and what it means for 33 peoples’ lives, livelihoods,
and future. This report includes analyses of impacts on seven selected 34
sectors: human health, water, energy, transportation, agriculture, forests,
and ecosystems and 35 biodiversity. This report additionally focuses on the
interactions among several sectors at the 36 national level. It also
assesses key impacts on the regions of the U.S.: Northeast, Southeast and
37 Caribbean, Midwest, Great Plains, Southwest, Northwest, Alaska and the
Arctic, Hawai‘i and the 38 Pacific Islands; as well as coastal areas,
oceans, and marine resources. Finally, this report is the 39 first to
explicitly assess the current state of adaptation, mitigation, and decision
support activities. 40

Draft for Public Comment Chapter 1 – Executive Summary
(v. 11 Jan 2013)
DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMENT
8
Report Findings 1

1. Global climate is changing, and this is apparent across the U.S. in a
wide range of 2 observations. The climate change of the past 50 years is
due primarily to human activities, 3 predominantly the burning of fossil
fuels. 4

U.S. average temperature has increased by about 1.5°F since 1895, with more
than 80% of 5 this increase occurring since 1980. The most recent decade
was the nation’s warmest on 6 record. Because human-induced warming is
superimposed on a naturally varying climate, 7 rising temperatures are not
evenly distributed across the country or over time (Ch. 2). 8

2. Some extreme weather and climate events have increased in recent
decades, and there is 9 new and stronger evidence that many of these
increases are related to human activities. 10

Changes in extreme events are the primary way in which most people
experience climate 11 change. Human-induced climate change has already
increased the frequency and intensity of 12 some extremes. Over the last 50
years, much of the U.S. has seen an increase in prolonged 13 stretches of
excessively high temperatures, more heavy downpours, and in some regions 14
more severe droughts (Ch. 2, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 23). 15

3. Human-induced climate change is projected to continue and accelerate
significantly if 16 emissions of heat-trapping gases continue to increase.
17
Heat-trapping gases already in the atmosphere have committed us to a hotter
future with 18 more climate-related impacts over the next few decades. The
magnitude of climate change 19 beyond the next few decades depends
primarily on the amount of heat-trapping gases emitted 20 globally, now and
in the future (Ch. 2, 27). 21

4. Impacts related to climate change are already evident in many sectors
and are expected 22 to become increasingly challenging across the nation
throughout this century and beyond. 23

Climate change is already affecting human health, infrastructure, water
resources, 24 agriculture, energy, the natural environment, and other
factors – locally, nationally, and 25 internationally. Climate change
interacts with other environmental and societal factors in a 26 variety of
ways that either moderate or exacerbate the ultimate impacts. The types and
27 magnitudes of these effects vary across the nation and through time.
Several populations – 28 including children, the elderly, the sick, the
poor, tribes and other indigenous people – are 29 especially vulnerable to
one or more aspects of climate change. There is mounting evidence 30 that
the costs to the nation are already high and will increase very
substantially in the future, 31 unless global emissions of heat-trapping
gases are strongly reduced (Ch. 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 32 11, 12, 13, 14,
16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25). 33

5. Climate change threatens human health and well-being in many ways,
including impacts 34 from increased extreme weather events, wildfire,
decreased air quality, diseases 35 transmitted by insects, food, and water,
and threats to mental health. 36

Climate change is increasing the risks of heat stress, respiratory stress
from poor air quality, 37 and the spread of waterborne diseases. Food
security is emerging as an issue of concern, both 38 within the U.S. and
across the globe, and is affected by climate change. Large-scale changes 39
in the environment due to climate change and extreme weather events are
also increasing the 40 risk of the emergence or reemergence of unfamiliar
health threats (Ch. 2, 6 , 9, 11, 12, 16, 19, 41

6. Infrastructure across the U.S. is being adversely affected by phenomena
associated with 2 climate change, including sea level rise, storm surge,
heavy downpours, and extreme 3 heat. 4

Sea level rise and storm surges, in combination with the pattern of heavy
development in 5 coastal areas, are already resulting in damage to
infrastructure such as roads, buildings, ports, 6 and energy facilities.
Infrastructure associated with military installations is also at risk from
7 climate change impacts. Floods along the nation’s rivers, inside cities,
and on lakes following 8 heavy downpours, prolonged rains, and rapid
melting of snowpack are damaging 9 infrastructure in towns and cities,
farmlands, and a variety of other places across the nation. 10 Extreme heat
is damaging transportation infrastructure such as roads, rail lines, and
airport 11 runways. Rapid warming in Alaska has resulted in infrastructure
impacts due to thawing of 12 permafrost and the loss of coastal sea ice
that once protected shorelines from storms and 13 wave-driven coastal
erosion (Ch. 2, 3, 5, 6, 11, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 25). 14

7. Reliability of water supplies is being reduced by climate change in a
variety of ways that 15 affect ecosystems and livelihoods in many regions,
particularly the Southwest, the Great 16 Plains, the Southeast, and the
islands of the Caribbean and the Pacific, including the state 17 of
Hawai`i. 18
Surface and groundwater supplies in many regions are already stressed by
increasing demand 19 for water as well as declining runoff and groundwater
recharge. In many regions, climate 20 change increases the likelihood of
water shortages and competition for water among 21 agricultural, municipal,
and environmental uses. The western U.S. relies heavily on mountain 22
snowpack for water storage, and spring snowpack is declining in most of the
West. There is 23 an increasing risk of seasonal water shortages in many
parts of the U.S., even where total 24 precipitation is projected to
increase. Water quality challenges are also increasing, 25 particularly
sediment and contaminant concentrations after heavy downpours (Ch. 2, 3,
12, 26 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 23). 27

8. Adverse impacts to crops and livestock over the next 100 years are
expected. Over the 28 next 25 years or so, the agriculture sector is
projected to be relatively resilient, even 29 though there will be
increasing disruptions from extreme heat, drought, and heavy 30 downpours.
U.S. food security and farm incomes will also depend on how agricultural 31
systems adapt to climate changes in other regions of the world. 32
Near-term resilience of U.S. agriculture is enhanced by adaptive actions,
including expansion 33 of irrigated acreage in response to drought,
regional shifts in crops and cropped acreage, 34 continued technological
advancements, and other adjustments. By mid-century, however, 35 when
temperature increases and precipitation extremes are further intensified,
yields of major 36 U.S. crops are expected to decline, threatening both
U.S. and international food security. The 37 U.S. food system also depends
on imports, so food security and commodity pricing will be 38 affected by
agricultural adaptation to climate changes and other conditions around the
world 39 (Ch. 2, 6, 12, 13, 14, 18, 19). 40

9. Natural ecosystems are being directly affected by climate change,
including changes in 1 biodiversity and location of species. As a result,
the capacity of ecosystems to moderate 2 the consequences of disturbances
such as droughts, floods, and severe storms is being 3 diminished. 4
In addition to climate changes that directly affect habitats, events such
as droughts, floods, 5 wildfires, and pest outbreaks associated with
climate change are already disrupting 6 ecosystem structures and functions
in a variety of direct and indirect ways. These changes 7 limit the
capacity of ecosystems such as forests, barrier beaches, and coastal- and
freshwater-8 wetlands to adapt and continue to play important roles in
reducing the impacts of these 9 extreme events on infrastructure, human
communities, and other valued resources (Ch. 2, 3, 10 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 14,
15, 19, 25). 11

10. Life in the oceans is changing as ocean waters become warmer and more
acidic. 12
Warming ocean waters and ocean acidification across the globe and within
U.S. marine 13 territories are broadly affecting marine life. Warmer and
more acidic waters are changing the 14 distribution of fish and other
mobile sea life, and stressing those, such as corals, that cannot 15 move.
Warmer and more acidic ocean waters combine with other stresses, such as 16
overfishing and coastal and marine pollution, to negatively affect
marine-based food 17 production and fishing communities (Ch. 2, 23, 24,
25). 18

11. Planning for adaptation (to address and prepare for impacts) and
mitigation (to reduce 19 emissions) is increasing, but progress with
implementation is limited. 20
In recent years, climate adaptation and mitigation activities have begun to
emerge in many 21 sectors and at all levels of government; however barriers
to implementation of these activities 22 are significant. The level of
current efforts is insufficient to avoid increasingly serious 23 impacts of
climate change that have large social, environmental, and economic 24
consequences. Well-planned and implemented actions to limit emissions and
increase 25 resilience to impacts that are unavoidable can improve public
health, economic development 26 opportunities, natural system protection,
and overall quality of life (Ch. 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13, 15, 27 26, 27, 28).
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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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