[Vision2020] Strongest Eastern Pacific or Atlantic Late Nov. Hurricane in History: Kenneth Cat. 4 145 mph Sustained Wind

[Ted Moffett]

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Kenneth is at or just was at 145 mph sustained
wind, a very strong cat. 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/203638.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Note NOAA history of Eastern Pacific Nov. 21-30 tropical storms, with only
two since 1949:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#ori
-----------------------------------
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/hurricane-kenneth-in-eastern-pacific-record-setting-category-4-storm/2011/11/22/gIQAgm11kN_blog.html

 Posted at 10:19 AM ET, 11/22/2011 Hurricane Kenneth in eastern Pacific:
record-setting category 4 storm
By Jason Samenow<http://www.washingtonpost.com/jason-samenow/2011/08/01/gIQAMnn9nI_page.html>


Hurricane season ends in just over a week, yet one of eastern Pacific’s
most intense storms this year swirls over the open ocean.
Kenneth<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/084514.shtml?5-daynl#contents>strengthened
to category 4 intensity this morning, becoming the strongest
hurricane on record so late in the season in the eastern north Pacific.

Positioned 750 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California, the storm’s maximum sustained winds are a remarkable 145 mph.
The National Hurricane Center
says<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP3+shtml/220844.shtml>Kenneth
has likely peaked in intensity and predicts the storm to hold its
own for another 12-24 hours before weakening and then dissipating. The
storm is no threat to land areas.

Aside from Kenneth, only three known tropical cyclones have formed after
November 18 in the eastern Pacific according to wunderground.com’s Jeff
Masters <http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html>.

-------------------------------------

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

  Dr. Jeff Masters'
WunderBlog<http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html>
 Category 4 Kenneth the strongest East Pacific late-season hurricane on
record<http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1991>

   Posted by: JeffMasters <http://www.wunderground.com/about/jmasters.asp>,
3:43 PM GMT on November 22, 2011 +14

 Hurricane Kenneth<http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep201113.html>has
intensified into an impressive Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds in
the Eastern Pacific. Kenneth is by far the strongest hurricane to appear so
late in the season in the Eastern Pacific; the previous record was
held by Hurricane
Winnie of December 5,
1983<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Pacific_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Winnie>,
a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. There has not been an Atlantic
hurricane as strong as Kenneth this late in the season, either; the latest
of the seven November major hurricanes in the
Atlantic<http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/lateseason.asp>was
Hurricane Kate of November 21, 1985 (120 mph winds). Since 1949, here
have been just three named storms that have formed in the Eastern Pacific
after November 18. These three storms were an unnamed tropical storm on
November 27, 1951 <http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ep1951.asp>;
Tropical Storm Sharon on November 27, 1971; and Hurricane Winnie on
December 5, 1983. <http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ep1983.asp>

Kenneth is over 27°C waters and under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so
could conceivably intensify further. However, I expect the storm has
peaked, since it's tough for a hurricane to get much stronger than
Kenneth's current intensity with ocean temperatures so close to the 26.5°C
hurricane formation threshold. Satellite
loops<http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/flash-vis-s.html>show an
impressive storm with a large eye, good symmetry, and plenty of
upper-level outflow. The relative lack of spiral bands and large, thick
eyewall may qualify Kenneth to be a rare breed of hurricanes known as
"annular". Annular
hurricanes<http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2007WAF2007031.1>are
a subset of intense tropical cyclones that are significantly stronger,
maintain their peak intensities longer, and weaken more slowly than average
tropical cyclones. The latest SHIPS model
output<ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/11112212EP1311_ships.txt>indicates
that Kenneth has passed the initial screening step to be
considered an annular hurricane. Only 4% of all hurricanes are annular
hurricanes.
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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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