[Vision2020] Fwd: Climate & Science

[Paul Rumelhart]

On 07/13/2011 06:30 PM, Art Deco wrote:
>
> You need to read this sentence again paying close attention to the 
> bolded word.:
>
> "The essential point, however, is that once we have accepted the 
> authority of a particular scientific discipline, we cannot 
> *consistently* reject its conclusions."
>
> Scientists can make mistakes, but such mistakes are generally 
> self-correcting in the long run.  Personal competition, competition 
> for recognition, and above all, competition for financial resources 
> drive scientists to carefully scrutinize other scientists' work.  
> Perhaps you've never been in that environment, but it is not always 
> pretty.
>
> It takes a nearly blind person to dispute the reality of average 
> temperature increase worldwide over the last 140 years, the lost of 
> ice mass worldwide, and the rise of sea levels.  There may be several 
> causes, but there is strong evidence that human activity that 
> generates carbon dioxide is a not insignificant factor.

I fear that the normal feedback loop is at the very least delayed in 
this case, simply because a paper that criticizes the agreed-upon 
"narrative" gets labeled a "contrarian" paper and can reflect badly upon 
the scientist that submitted it, even if it was correcting a real 
problem.  This throws the balance off, which could have detrimental 
effects upon the whole system.  If you believe that certain climate 
scientists are abusing the peer review process, then such a paper might 
never get published in the first place.  This is a real danger to the 
process.

To fix it, I think, we need to divorce the political from the 
scientific.  Which is why I was blathering on about scientists sticking 
to the science and what it actually says instead of trying to raise the 
alarm about what certain climate scientists think it might mean.


Paul
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