[Vision2020] Response to LMT Response: U of I: 20 Million Climate Science Grant: U of I Scientist Von Walden: Regional Ave. Temp. Expected Increase 2 Celsius by 2050.

Tue Feb 22 16:50:59 PST 2011

 I received a response from the Lewiston Morning Tribune regarding my
response to the LMT article referenced below.  I responded with the
following, with a few changes included below for clarity.  The "private"
LMT response is not included below:

Your article does not inform the public about the well researched science
regarding the temperature increases we can expect in the next century from
climate change, yet you quote a scientist regarding an expected temperature
increase of 2 degrees Celsius by 2050, introducing a scientific discussion
of what magnitude of temperature increases the public can expect.  To inform
the public of critical essential facts regarding the science on this
question is responsible journalism, that definitely impacts the scientific
study of adaptation strategy,

I pointed out how misleading it is to not mention that a 2 degree Celsius
increase is expected to be followed (without substantial mitigation) by much
greater temperature increases in only a few decades after 2050, by
referencing the MIT paper indicated.

The efforts studying and/or implementing adaptation to a 2 degree Celsius
increase by 2050 could be rendered moot if we face a 5.2 degree Celsius
increase by 2100 (MIT study mean probability surface temperature increase by
2100), and responsible journalism indicates informing the public of this
possibility.

I did not write a treatise to introduce the MIT study data on predicted
temperature increases, nor would it have required a treatise for you to
quote a scientific reference indicating the magnitude of temperature
increases we are likely to face from anthropogenic climate change, that most
definitely would impact efforts for regional adaptation mentioned in your
article, within the lifespan of those born today.

Ted Moffett

> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> From: Ted Moffett < starbliss at gmail.com >
> Date: Tue, Feb 22, 2011 at 3:10 PM
> Subject: U of I: 20 Million Climate Science Grant: U of I Scientist Von
> Walden: Regional Ave. Temp. Expected Increase 2 Celsius by 2050.
> To: Moscow Vision 2020 < vision2020 at moscow.com >
> Cc: Letters Mail < letters at lmtribune.com >
>
>
>
> Editor, Lewiston Morning Tribune:
>
> The February 19, 2011 Joel Mills article on the U of I climate change grant
> implies that adaptation, rather than mitigation, to climate change is a
> rational approach to addressing the problem, given no emphasis is placed on
> the necessity for substantial mitigation efforts as soon as possible.
>
> This is irresponsible journalism.
>
> I am not saying that studying the impacts and preparing to adapt to climate
> change is not needed. It is needed very much, given that the scientific
> evidence is compelling that significant anthropogenic impacts on Earth's
> climate system are at this point unavoidable. What I am saying, is that
> every discussion of adaptation should emphasize that mitigation of
> continuing anthropogenic impacts that can cause continuing and more severe
> climate change (CO2 emissions), is necessary.
>
> Mills' article below could easily lead a reader to assume that the problem
> of anthropogenic climate change is being responsibly addressed via
> adaptation studies. For example, the claim that regional temperatures are
> expected to increase by 2 degrees Celsius by 2050, is not accompanied by the
> competent science demonstrating that by 2100 much greater temperature
> increases are likely.
>
> Consider the findings of peer reviewed published science from MIT in 2009,
> regarding potential temperature increases by 2100: "Probabilistic Forecast
> for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (without
> Policy) and Climate Parameters" The new projections, published in the
> American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate, indicate a median
> probability of surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90%
> probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees.
>
> The adaptations taken to adjust to a regional temperature increase of 2
> degrees Celsius by 2050 could be rendered inadequate considering the
> temperature increases predicted by this MIT study for 2100. To not address
> this point is to not inform the reader of the substantial risks posed by not
> immediately implementing substantial reductions in CO2 emissions, as the MIT
> paper referenced here indicates.
>
> Ted Moffett
> 1097 Canyon Rd.
> Moscow, Idaho 83843
> 208-882-8643
> email: starbliss at gmail.com
>
> News article below from the Lewiston Morning Tribune
>
> http://www.techzone360.com/news/2011/02/19/5324934.htm
>
>
> February 19, 2011
>
> UI gets grant to study climate change
>
>
> MOSCOW, Feb 19, 2011 (The Lewiston Morning Tribune - McClatchy-Tribune
> Information Services via COMTEX) -- The University of Idaho announced the
> largest single grant in its history Friday, a $20 million award to study and
> plan for how climate change will affect cereal grain production in the
> Pacific Northwest.
>
>
>
> The five-year U.S. Department of Agriculture grant will be administered by
> the UI and shared with Washington State University and the University of
> Oregon.
>
> "Warmer weather and more variable precipitation are coming," said UI
> entomologist Sanford Eigenbrode by phone from Washington, D.C.
>
> That change in climate will require a change in how Northwest farmers
> operate so crop yields and agricultural jobs can be protected, Eigenbrode
> said.
>
> He and a multidisciplinary team from the three land-grant universities will
> focus on the cereal production systems of the Columbia River basin and
> plateau and the Palouse to adjust management strategies under the projected
> climate change scenarios for the region.
>
> Cereal grains are a large portion of the regional economy, with sales of
> $1.5 billion in 2009. That year, the Northwest grew 13 percent of the
> nation's wheat and 80 percent of its soft white wheat exports, according to
> the UI.
>
> UI geography professors Von P. Walden and John Abatzoglou said regional
> average temperatures are expected to rise by 2 degrees Celsius by 2050.
>
> "It shifts the distribution of temperatures so that you might realize more
> extreme events," Walden said.
>
> That could mean decreased snowpacks due to more rain than snowfall, he
> said.
>
> To put a 2 degree Celsius increase in temperature in perspective, Walden
> said that during the last ice age, the planet was only 8-10 degrees Celsius
> colder than today. "So a 2 degree Celsius change in the other direction is a
> pretty big difference." The grant announcement brought together
> administrators, faculty members, students and the media -- both in person
> and via teleconference -- in the UI agricultural science and biotechnology
> buildings.
>
> Deans spoke about the importance of the research for the future of crop
> production, education and team building within and between their respective
> institutions. Vice presidents spoke of the importance of federal funding to
> supplement ever-shrinking state support for research.
>
> But the future of the entire $20 million grant is uncertain. With
> Republicans in Congress pushing for deep budget cuts, especially in the
> areas of earmarks and special projects, some worried the celebration could
> be short-lived.
>
> "All of the funding agencies are in the crosshairs right now," UI Vice
> President for Research and Economic Development Jack McIver said.
>
> The first year of funding for the project is committed, "as far as I know,"
> McIver said. But funding for the remaining years will be up to Congress.
>
> Without federal funding, this type of work will be impossible, said John
> Hammel, dean of the UI College of Agricultural and Life Sciences.
>
> "These competitive grants are going to be more and more important to
> getting these projects done," Hammel said.
>
> Oregon State University College of Agricultural Sciences Dean Sonny
> Ramasway, speaking by phone, said projects like the climate change study are
> already being hit hard in current budget proposals in the U.S. House of
> Representatives. Defunding them will harm American competitiveness in global
> markets, he said.
>
> And McIver said the funding will save faculty and staff jobs at the
> universities, and keep some faculty members from leaving for better-paying
> jobs by supplementing their salaries. It will also fund more than a dozen
> new graduate students.
>
> The educational aspect of the project will also reach into K-12 classrooms,
> Eigenbrode said. The universities have already conducted a survey of 1,000
> teachers to see what kinds of materials and knowledge they need to
> incorporate climate change lessons in their classrooms.
>
> Eventually, summer training sessions for teachers will be conducted, he
> said.
>
> In all, 22 principal investigators, 14 graduate students, three
> post-graduate researchers and several technical and administrative staffers
> will work on the project. Their areas of expertise include agronomy, climate
> and atmospheric science, entomology, plant science, weed science, sociology,
> soil science, ecology, agricultural economics, education and extension and
> information science.
>
> Mills may be contacted at jmills at lmtribune.com or (208) 883-0564.
>
> To see more of The Lewiston Morning Tribune or to subscribe to the
> newspaper, go to http://www.lmtribune.com . Copyright (c) 2011, The
> Lewiston Morning Tribune, Idaho Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information
> Services. For more information about the content services offered by
> McClatchy-Tribune Information Services (MCT), visit
> www.mctinfoservices.com .
> ------------------------------------------
> Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
>
>
>
>
>
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