[Vision2020] Mega-Load Update

Tue Nov 9 11:29:55 PST 2010

If you ever listen to/read/watch stock market news, you are familiar with how various analysts/various pundits frequently give some very short explanation of why the stock market moved it did on a certain day, for example, jittery investors, profit taking, concern about industry X or Y, concern about upcoming elections, and a whole host of quasi-technical reasons.

As we as in the country might say, "What a load of bullshit!"

If you listen to different pundits on the same day, their reasons for explaining stock movement are frequently quite different.  When the stock movement is tied to news by pundits, sometimes the stock market has made its significant moves before the news articles have appeared,  etc.

This is the problem:

The stock market and its daily transactions are very complex.  That should be obvious since very few are able to predict movement either on a short term or long term basis to make a steady, healthy profit over a period of years.  Some are relatively successful for short periods, but the last few years has seen even this number of successful investors decrease.

There are millions of transactions daily with tens of thousands or more investors making trades.  Decisions of whether to buy or to sell are made on many different bases.  Some trades are preprogrammed weeks or months in advance to occur when an individual stock reaches a certain level or there is certain movement (or lack of movement) of the stock over a certain period.  Some trade decisions are based on tax considerations, the need for cash, hunches, seductive prospectuses, etc.

How can it be known with any degree of accuracy why the market moves the way it does on any given day?  Not only are there many different reasons, but even if there could be a way of polling for the most part most investors appear to be reticent about discussing their financial affairs and the their corresponding underlying rational so the truth would be exceedingly difficult to discover.

With very few exceptions, there are many many reasons why stocks move the way they do on any given day.  It is not only extremely suspect to reduce the complex numbers of reasons to a sentence or two, but this strikes me as dishonest as well since most of the so-called market savvy pundits surely know they are spouting bullshit.

It seems to me that this is the same with the outcome of almost any election.

There are many issues and many voters.  Most of us are not single issue voters.  Most of use are not familiar in-depth on any or all the issues or how a candidate stands on all the issues.  There is certainly a wide range of understanding of the issues among the voters.  For some, issues are not an issue:  They vote on the recommendation of friends, relatives, neighbors, rumors, etc or on appearances, the graphic quality of ads, etc.  Voters vote the way the do for many and assorted reasons (or unreasons).

Fox News has an ongoing poll on whether the respondents believe our country is going in the right direction.  Generally, this poll from this group of respondents say not.  What the poll does not show is what all these different respondents really think specifically the right direction is.  There appear to be many elements of what constitutes the "right" direction.  Not only is it doubtful that there is agreement upon what all these different elements are, but what the relative importance of each element is.

In the same vein some voters are eternal, but fickle optimists:  The system is not working now, so let's try something else -- without much consideration of the rationality or evidence that the something else will work out better; more times than not, it doesn't have appeared to have done so.  So the fickle optimists change their minds again at some point.  [Sidebar:  There may not be solutions to problems that will ever please enough of the electorate with all their different values to slow this cycle.]

Since there are so many different issues and weights of importance of these issues, it appears highly probable that no one knows exactly why each voter voted the way they did.  People's opinions on various issues are in constant flux. It is same folly to ascribe monolithic reasons why any electorate as a whole voted the way they did as it is to reduce the explanation of stock market movement to a few claims.  It is like saying the Dow gained 100 points because USS Steel announced a third quarter profit.  Most investors were probably unaware of this when they made trade decisions, let alone greatly influenced by this.

So when anyone says the vote for a particular candidate shows that the people (or at least small majority of those voting) want X, where X might mean anything very specific:  this claim is very highly improbable.

Hence when the claim is made that by voting for Otter, the people have endorsed all his polices/positions, and especially the IDT and its policies and actions, this old country boy finds such a claim highly improbable (bullshit).  

Especially, since the IDT has been the least popular, most criticized state agency both statewide and locally, for all of the years I've lived in Idaho, and especially in recent years where they lost bulldozers in Coeur d'Alene Lake, where a large part of the north side of recently constructed downgrade on the north side of Mica Hill collapsed in a landslide and had to be reconstructed, where they flooded tons and tons of sediment into Coeur d'Alene lake, where locally the seal coating they do doesn't even last a year in places, etc.

Hence, voting for Otter is very highly unlikely to have been an endorsement of the megaloads and the operation of the IDT.  

Wayne A. Fox
1009 Karen Lane
PO Box 9421
Moscow, ID  83843

waf at moscow.com
208 882-7975

  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Wayne Price 
  To: Sam Scripter 
  Cc: Vision 2020 ; Katie.Brodie at gov.idaho.gov 
  Sent: Monday, November 08, 2010 1:42 PM
  Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Mega-Load Update

  And while we're on the subject, I read the editorial in todays DNews, and wonder just what the purpose was of the title, "Idaho, IDT didn't get the Message".  Based on the election results, Idaho and IDT DID get the message. 
  The message that the voters sent to IDT, and IDT's  ultimate "Boss", the Governor, is that they are happy with the operations of state government, including the IDT. If they weren't, then the incumbent government, including the Governor, would have been show the door, and a new government would be taking its place in January. It wasn't and the people of the state of Idaho have spoken.

  Now, what I am wondering is, should it be the function of the IDT to pick and choose which loads will or will not be hauled on Idaho roads depending on who is shipping them, or is it IDT's responsibility to ensure that loads, even mega-loads, are shipped safely?  The roads are,  and have been built for commerce. Some of that commerce is over length, over wide and over long. There is a process to ensure that these particular loads are hauled safely, the only mandate that IDT has. Do we really want IDT deciding who are good shippers and who are bad shippers depending on what the company produces? For instance, IF they were loads to build a new hospital in Alberta, same length, width and weight as the Exxon-Mobil loads, should that have any bearing on IDT's decision?  What I see are people that are unhappy because of the dirty three letter word, "OIL" is involved. Those who don't want the loads shipped safely, they flat want them stopped!  Well, what about stopping the actual shipment of oil on the roadway?  Should the end use of the item being shipped have any bearing on IDT's decisions? For instance, oil processing equipment is bad, but oil itself is good?

  Where were the "Stop the shipments" folks back in October when a real spill of some 7,500 gallons of diesel fuel was actually spilt along Highway 12? The load that DID spill oil  was not even required to have any special considerations or permits. Why no uproar  about that?  From what I understand about the so called "mega-loads" is that they are some of the safest and most well documented and observed loads that have ever been shipped in Idaho commerce exclusive of the atomic loads moving into INEL!  And the permits are issued per load, not in batches of 200+. Should there be a formal hearing or adjudication for every dangerous /hazardous load that is put on Idaho's roads? Are people willing to pay for the extra cost that it would put on both the state agencies and the haulers, which would eventually be passed to the taxpayers and end users of the products?

  And as far as Highway 12 being turned into a "mega-load" highway, it already is.  It is part of the US highway system that was created for commerce with tax dollars.  It's subsequent designation as a "scenic highway" in no way diminishes it's  primary purpose, commerce. Does the designation as a "scenic highway"  somehow take away the purpose for which it was built in the first place? If it does, I would caution  state authorities across the nation to be very careful before they allow any other highway to be so designated and loose its original designation and purpose, a highway built for commerce.

  Wayne M. Price

  On Nov 8, 2010, at 1:06 PM, Sam Scripter wrote:

    I guess I am "dense"

    What does 

            ". . .  a full contested case hearing  . . ." 

    accomplish except to delay the inevitable, 
    which so many in power positions seem 
    hell-bent to do?

    Sam I am in Moscow . . .

    nickgier at roadrunner.com wrote: 
>From the brave folks at FightingGoliath.org.  By the way these people received a message from an Israeli who is fighting the government on the very spot where David is supposed to have killed Goliath with his trusty sling shot.  He wishes us well.

Good morning,

We have two developments to report:

1. There are a lot of vehicles and a lot of activity at the port this morning.

2. Our Advocates for the West lawyers have spoken twice with an ITD lawyer, who assures that there "will be no surprises" and "ITD plans to hold a full contested case hearing" to which we "are a party."

Our assumptions:

Our lawyers can only assume that ITD's lawyer, functioning under ethical standards, is telling the truth.

Both the information regarding increased activity at the port around the ConocoPhillips' shipments and the other reliable information we've received are also true.

Our guesses:

Something not fully open to us is going on between ConocoPhillips and ITD. CP, for example, could be posturing.  Perhaps we could guess that some sort of brinksmanship match is being played.  Toward what outcome, we aren't sure.

Our plans:

Our lawyers are ready to very quickly go into court today, tomorrow, whenever needed, to force ITD to hold a hearing prior to any movement of shipments.  

At the same time, our monitoring plan is in place. If you're on our team list, we will call you, but we think we won't be monitoring tonight or tomorrow night.

We will keep you updated.

Borg

The Rural People of Highway 12
www.FightingGoliath.org

THE MEGA-COUNT & the mega-question:
4 = ConocoPhillips
207 = Imperial Oil/ExxonMobil
63 = Harvest Energy/Operations
274 = CURRENT POTENTIAL TOTAL
How many more will approach ITD & MDT by spring?

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