[Vision2020] National Snow Ice Data Center: Arctic Sea Ice Decline During June Continues Below Record 2007 Low Extent

[Ted Moffett]

During June 2010, Arctic sea ice decline has continued at a pace below the
record low 2007 year (  http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ ,
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png).

The data on Arctic sea ice extent is updated daily on the NSIDC website,
with a one day lag.  Of course, this trend could change so that 2010 does
not exceed the 2007 record low Arctic sea ice extent.  Note this is not a
discussion of ice volume, or thickness.

Arctic sea ice extent is now on June 27 more below the record 2007 rate of
decline than it was May 31, 2010.  So much for the Arctic sea ice extent
"recovery" promoted by some climate change skeptics confirmation bias
filtered websites (
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/29/another-arctic-sea-ice-milestone/ ) as
evidence to question the seriousness of anthropogenic climate warming.  As U
of I climate scientist Von Walden, who does field work in the Arctic and
Antarctic, as the following September 2009 Spokesman Review article
described, phrased it:

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2009/sep/29/ui-professor-joins-ice-melt-research/

“Things are changing very quickly in the Arctic right now,” Walden said.
“There’s really no debate that we’re perturbing our atmosphere and global
warming is beginning to occur.”
---------------------------------------
Von Walden's certainty, given how this quote is worded, regarding human
impacts on warming Earth's climate, no doubt raises the ire of some
anthropogenic warming skeptics.  I think a more temperate assessment, as the
scientifically conservative IPCC has indicated, is that the science
indicates over 90 percent odds that human impacts are the primary drivers of
the rapid and profound climate warming occurring, more than probable enough
given the magnitude of probable impacts (ocean coastal flooding alone would
be a massive global disaster), to justify quick and significant action to
reduce CO2 emissions, and other impacts.

However, the MIT Integrated Global System Model indicated in 2009 that with
a "No-Policy Case" scenario regarding human impacts on climate, the odds of
global average temperatures increasing less than 3 degree Celsius by
2100, are less than 1 percent.  In other words, the odds of extreme climate
change (most climate scientists would agree that a 3 degree Celsius or
higher increase in global average temperatures will result in extreme
climate change) by 2100 with business as usual human activity, is over 99
percent.  MIT's Global System Model predictions from 2003 are lower than the
2009 predictions, and the 2009 predictions are higher than IPCC
predictions.  As MIT has improved the model, it is indicating climate change
of greater magnitude than previously.  To quote from the published article
abstract on the MIT Integrated System Model 2009 (Journal of Climate 2009;
22: 5175-5204):

"The new projections are considerably warmer than the 2003
projections; for example, the median surface warming in 2091–2100 is 5.1°C
compared to 2.4°C in the earlier study."
-----------------------------
This conforms with the more recent findings during the past decade of many
climate scientists, that climate change is progressing faster than
previously predicted.  The rate of Arctic sea ice decline is one major
indicator that fits this faster trend  (
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/sea_ice.html<http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/sea_ice.html>
 ).

I recall NASA Climate scientist James Hansen stating in an interview, when
pressed about the certainty of his general climate predictions, that they
are over 99 percent certain, within a given range of possible temperature
outcomes:

Info at websites below on the MIT Integrated Global System Model
probabilities for various global temperature increases by 2100

http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2010-May/070133.html

http://globalchange.mit.edu/resources/gamble/no-policy.html

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009JCLI2863.1

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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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