<div>During June 2010, Arctic sea ice decline has continued at a pace below the record low 2007 year ( <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/" target="_blank">http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/</a> , <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png" target="_blank">http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png</a> ). </div>
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<div>The data on Arctic sea ice extent is updated daily on the NSIDC website, with a one day lag. Of course, this trend could change so that 2010 does not exceed the 2007 record low Arctic sea ice extent. Note this is not a discussion of ice volume, or thickness.</div>
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<div>Arctic sea ice extent is now on June 27 more below the record 2007 rate of decline than it was May 31, 2010. So much for the Arctic sea ice extent "recovery" promoted by some climate change skeptics confirmation bias filtered websites ( <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/29/another-arctic-sea-ice-milestone/" target="_blank">http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/29/another-arctic-sea-ice-milestone/</a> ) as evidence to question the seriousness of anthropogenic climate warming. As U of I climate scientist Von Walden, who does field work in the Arctic and Antarctic, as the following September 2009 Spokesman Review article described, phrased it:</div>
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<div><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2009/sep/29/ui-professor-joins-ice-melt-research/" target="_blank">http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2009/sep/29/ui-professor-joins-ice-melt-research/</a></div>
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<p><font size="4">“Things are changing very quickly in the Arctic right now,” Walden said. “There’s really no debate that we’re perturbing our atmosphere and global warming is beginning to occur.”</font></p></div>
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<div>Von Walden's certainty, given how this quote is worded, regarding human impacts on warming Earth's climate, no doubt raises the ire of some anthropogenic warming skeptics. I think a more temperate assessment, as the scientifically conservative IPCC has indicated, is that the science indicates over 90 percent odds that human impacts are the primary drivers of the rapid and profound climate warming occurring, more than probable enough given the magnitude of probable impacts (ocean coastal flooding alone would be a massive global disaster), to justify quick and significant action to reduce CO2 emissions, and other impacts.</div>
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<div>However, the MIT Integrated Global System Model indicated in 2009 that with a "No-Policy Case" scenario regarding human impacts on climate, the odds of global average temperatures increasing less than 3 degree Celsius by 2100, are less than 1 percent. In other words, the odds of extreme climate change (most climate scientists would agree that a 3 degree Celsius or higher increase in global average temperatures will result in extreme climate change) by 2100 with business as usual human activity, is over 99 percent. MIT's Global System Model predictions from 2003 are lower than the 2009 predictions, and the 2009 predictions are higher than IPCC predictions. As MIT has improved the model, it is indicating climate change of greater magnitude than previously. To quote from the published article abstract on the MIT Integrated System Model 2009 (Journal of Climate 2009; 22: 5175-5204):<br>
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<div><font size="4">"The new projections are considerably warmer than the 2003<br>projections; for example, the median surface warming in 2091–2100 is 5.1°C<br>compared to 2.4°C in the earlier study."</font></div>
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<div>This conforms with the more recent findings during the past decade of many climate scientists, that climate change is progressing faster than previously predicted. The rate of Arctic sea ice decline is one major indicator that fits this faster trend <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/sea_ice.html" target="_blank">( http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/sea_ice.html</a> ).</div>
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<div>I recall NASA Climate scientist James Hansen stating in an interview, when pressed about the certainty of his general climate predictions, that they are over 99 percent certain, within a given range of possible temperature outcomes:</div>
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<div>Info at websites below on the MIT Integrated Global System Model probabilities for various global temperature increases by 2100</div>
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<div><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2010-May/070133.html" target="_blank">http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2010-May/070133.html</a></div>
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<div><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://globalchange.mit.edu/resources/gamble/no-policy.html" target="_blank">http://globalchange.mit.edu/resources/gamble/no-policy.html</a></div>
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<div><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009JCLI2863.1" target="_blank">http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009JCLI2863.1</a><br> </div>
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<div>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett<br> </div>
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