[Vision2020] NSIDC: 2010 Arctic Sea Ice Decline Highest for Month of May During Satellite Record.

[Paul Rumelhart]

Ron Force wrote:
> The scientific article itself was less assured than the press report:
> http://epic.awi.de/Publications/Haa2010b.pdf
>
> "However, the volume of older ice may have been less overall due
> to a lower areal coverage, and because our surveys were still 
> spatially limited"

The article from Canada.com was describing why the lead author (Haas) of 
that paper doesn't buy the prediction of a record melt this year.  He 
bases his opinion on data he gathered for his paper that shows that the 
current level of ice is "in some ways in better shape going into the 
melt season than it has been for a couple of years".

>
> As others point out, one year does not make a trend;
> http://www.skepticalscience.com/Has-Arctic-sea-ice-returned-to-normal.html

A quote from that web page:

"A better metric for the total amount of sea ice is, well, the actual 
total amount of sea ice, measured by sea ice volume. Satellite radar 
altimetry (Giles 2008 
<http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2008GL035710.shtml>) and 
satellite laser altimetry (Kwok 2009 
<http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009JC005312.shtml>) find that 
Arctic sea ice has been thinning, even in 2008 and 2009 when sea ice 
extent showed a slight recovery from the 2007 minimum."

Haas et al are apparently working on a detailed analysis of satellite 
altimetry measurements, based on their data, as stated in the 
introduction to their paper.  They also stated in their conclusions 
section that "it seems that consequences of strong melt and ice export 
during and after the summer record minimum 2007 may have been 
compensated for by weather patterns in 2008 that were not conducive to 
high melt and ice dispersal in summer and may have fostered enhanced 
thermodynamic ice growth during a colder winter 2008/09 with less snow 
accumulation".  Given Haas' comments that were quoted in the newspaper 
article, I suspect we're going to find out that the satellite 
observations were fooled by the drop in snow level into thinking that 
the ice level had dropped.  Since their probe measures both snow depth 
and ice depth, he would presumably have better data.  I guess we'll have 
to wait for their paper to be published to find out for sure.

It's true that one year does not make a trend.  Haas states in the 
canada.com article that "the more likely scenario is that the ice will 
continue a decline that has been underway for at least 30 years."  I see 
no reason not to believe that.  My main reason for responding to Ted was 
based on his comment that skeptics will have to beef up their 
confirmation bias filters to not believe that sea ice will fall below 
2007 levels.  I wanted to point out that those kinds of conclusions are 
not as set in stone as he thinks.  There is room for skepticism that 
does not involve confirmation bias filters.

I'd also like to applaud Haas' team for actually getting out over the 
ice and taking more precise measurements.  With all the money that has 
gone into computer modeling and with all the monetary repercussions that 
might follow attempts by the government to reduce greenhouse gas 
emissions, I'm glad some groups are deciding to spend more money on 
direct observations and data gathering.  Now if we could only get the 
world to fund some more thermometers around the globe rather than 
reducing them drastically as they did around 2005-2006, from close to 
1500 down to around 200 or so.

Paul

>
> Ron Force
> Moscow ID USA
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> *From:* Paul Rumelhart <godshatter at yahoo.com>
> *To:* Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com>
> *Cc:* Moscow Vision 2020 <vision2020 at moscow.com>
> *Sent:* Sat, June 19, 2010 3:53:13 PM
> *Subject:* Re: [Vision2020] NSIDC: 2010 Arctic Sea Ice Decline Highest 
> for Month of May During Satellite Record.
>
>
> A recent series of measurements of the Arctic suggests that the melting
> is not as severe as has been reported.  A group of scientists supported
> largely by the German government have flown a modified DC-3 trailing an
> airborne probe that uses a series of electromagnetic signals to measure
> the thickness of the ice.  The probe measured ice thickness every five
> meters along it's 2,412 kilometer journey.
>
> Geophysicist Christian Haas of the University of Alberta has stated that
> the ice is "in some ways in better shape going into the melt season than
> it has been for a couple of years." and that "we have more thick ice
> going into the summer than we did in 2009 and 2008."
>
> Here is the story as reported by canada.com <http://canada.com>:
> http://www.canada.com/Scan+Arctic+dispels+melting+gloom+researcher+says/3175785/story.html
>
> I don't expect to hear much about this in the media, since it goes
> against the narrative they have been painstakingly building for years.
>
> Paul
>
>