[Vision2020] The Guardian on Cancún Climate Change Conference: " a meeting of emitters anonymous"

[Ted Moffett]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/dec/03/cancun-climate-change-conference-roundup

Friday 3 December 2010 15.58 GMT

Cancún climate change conference: Week one roundup

As the Cancún summit's first week draws to a close, John Vidal
analyses progress on the key issues, from emissions cuts to finance
for developing countries

Plan: To hold emissions to a maximum temperature rise of 2C.

The prize: To prevent runaway global warming.

Progress: Little. But many rich countries only interested in
implementing unambitious Copenhagen accord.

Setbacks: Pledges made so far by countries only cover 60% of what
science says is needed to hold temperatures to 2C increase.

Outlook: Bleak. Hard to see how big emitters like the US will
compromise to greater cuts.

Comment: Wendel Trio, Greenpeace climate director: "This is a meeting
of emitters anonymous. They haven't even taken the first steps to
admit there is a problem."

FORESTS
Plan: Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (Redd). To
set up an international forest and land use agreement which will allow
countries to offset carbon emissions by protecting forests – and
locking away emissions – in developing countries.

The prize: Possible $30bn a year to go to developing countries to
protect and restore forests.

Progress: Little. Informal discussions taking place but Saudi Arabia is hostile.

Setbacks: Concerns that a bad agreement could fund loggers and lead to
corruption.

Outlook: Good. No final agreement but all parties determined to deliver one.

Comment: Peg Putt, Tasmanian Greens leader: "We need to ensure natural
forests will be protected, and biodiversity is maintained."

FINANCE
Plan: To raise $100bn a year by 2020 for developing countries affected
by climate change, and set up a giant carbon fund.

Progress: Good. Financiers confident money can be found. Some of the
key elements like governance of the fund and allocation of more money
for adapting to the impacts of climate change – such as flooding – are
heading in the right direction.

Setbacks: The US and others are holding finance hostage to get
concessions from China on the transparency of monitoring emissions
cuts.

Outlook: Close to agreement. This could be one of the deliverables at
Cancún. Developing countries will have to agree to a large tranche of
risky market-driven money rather than guaranteed public funds, but
look like keeping control over the funds.

Comment: Tim Gore, Oxfam climate change adviser: "This is achievable.
A fair climate fund could make a huge difference in ensuring that
people suffering the impacts of climate change get the help they need
and will help put the negotiations back on track towards a global
deal."

TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER
Plan: To reach agreement so all countries have access to new
low-carbon technologies.

Progress: Talk of regional or international centres to provide advice
and information.

Setbacks: Not many. Considered relatively easy to achieve

Outlook: Good but probably to be concluded in 2011.

KYOTO PROTOCOL
Plan: To get rich countries to sign up to extending the Kyoto protocol
and state their plans for emissions cuts.

Progress: Backwards.

Setbacks: Japan has stated categorically that it will not sign up to a
new period, and other countries like Russia, Australia and Canada are
reluctant to give positions away.

Outlook: Critical. Kyotyo protocol is totemic issue for developing
countries who say it is the only legally binding treaty forcing rich
countries to cut emissions.

Comment: Martin Khor, director of the inter-governmental South Centre:
"This is very shocking. The whole Kyoto protocol is now under severe
threat."

LOOPHOLES
Plan: Close loopholes in negotiating texts that could mean a rise emissions.

Progress: None. EU, Australia, Russia New Zealand and Canda are trying
to open more loopholes.

Setbacks: If major loopholes in forestry, land use and unused permits
to emit carbon are not closed, some rich countries may need to take no
action to cut emissions.

Outlook: No prospects for agreement.

Comment: Paul Winn, Greenpeace Australia: "The loopholes are so big
you can drive a logging truck straight through them and build a coal
plant in its shadow. It's time to bring an end to this farce".

VERIFICATION
Plan: Commit to an international program by which countries would
monitor, report and verify one another's progress on emission
reduction commitments and climate aid pledges.

Progress: China and the US have indicated they are prepared to
compromise, and an Indian compromise proposal on self-financed actions
at home is shaping up as a deal-maker. Countries are now discussing
setting up a new oversight body for long term finance.

Setbacks: Rich countries want to be allowed to measure, and verify
actions taken by developing countries to combat climate change.
Equally, poor countries want to be certain rich country money comes on
non top of official aid.

Outlook: Significant steps so far suggest there could be a breakthrough.

HOW HAVE THEY DONE?
China: Has played the first week quiet, avoiding confrontation with
US. But real discussions have barely started.

US: Less assertive and aggressive since the mid term elections because
they are in weaker position. Eager to avoid attacks by developing
countries but not offering compromises yet.

Europe: The most ambitious of the rich country blocs, not eager to
lead but prepared to compromise to get deals on Redd and finance.
Positioned midway between Japan and developing countries on Kyoto.
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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett