[Vision2020] "Don't frighten me... with visions of drowning Polar Bears" OK... Let Sarah McLaughlin Sing Instead!

[Paul Rumelhart]

Actually, I that wasn't aimed at you personally.  I was just referring 
to the fact that no politicians have contacted me with well-wishes for 
my continued success in trying to ferret out the truth.  That's what I 
meant by being "roundly ignored".

Right now, there are a few things you can't do politically.  You can't 
fight against the erosion of our rights in the fight against terror, 
because you'll be branded as un-American and pro-terrorist.  You can't 
fight against the erosion of our rights as they relate to criminal 
activity without being branded as not "thinking of the children".  And 
you can't suggest that we don't treat global warming as if we were in 
the days just before being invaded by aliens or something of that 
magnitude without being condemned for endangering the human race.

In all three cases above, there is an attempt to use our fears against 
us to lead us towards a goal.  I don't want to be manipulated by the 
fears of my compatriots.  There are good reasons for moving off of oil 
and coal and for building up alternative energy technology that have 
nothing to do with greenhouse gases or carbon credits.  I would rather 
those in power push those reasons, rather than trying to scare me into 
doing the right thing.

In short, more carrot, less stick please.

Why must we do something right now, anyway?  Realistically, we'll never 
get people right now to cut back on much of anything based on fears of 
what might happen 50 or 100 years down the road - even if the fears are 
real and not over-hyped.  Just wait until sea level raises three feet.  
That's a number people can understand, and a number big enough that it 
will start making noticeable changes in some coastlines.  The current 
value at the moment is about 20cm since 1880, or just under 8 inches.  
At the highest rate (measured by satellites: 3.1mm/year), we'll get to 3 
feet according to my calculations in 2239 
(36in-8in=28in=71.12cm=711.2mm, 711.2mm/3.1(mm/yr)=229yr, 
2010+229yr=2239).  Or wait until it starts to hit 120 degrees here in 
the summers for a week or two every year like clockwork.  Or wait until 
you can sail to the North Pole every year without ice breakers.

In the meantime, the environmentalists could be sneaky and try arguing 
the benefits of getting off of coal or reducing pollution or building 
nuclear plants without referring to climate change, knowing that they 
are stealthily saving the world in the process.

Paul

Ted Moffett wrote:
> You appear to be addressing me personally in the post partly quoted in 
> the subject heading.  In fact, I did not ignore your concerns in the 
> thread on the Argonaut article "Halfway There."  Though I did not 
> address all of your points, I did quote and address a few of them. 
>  
> Lower down you can read, in case you did not read it before, my 
> previous response to your previous post in the Argonaut "Halfway 
> There" thread, that also references previous posts of yours that, as 
> far as I recall, I was the sole respondent to on this list.
>  
> Given I don't want my statements being misrepresented, distorted, 
> or otherwise having words I never stated put into my mouth (or 
> keyboard), I must ask why you write not to "frighten me...with visions 
> of drowning polar bears?"
>  
> I have never attempted to frighten anyone with visions of drowning 
> polar bears.  This seems like a childish and silly way to prompt 
> someone to conserve energy, or address lowering CO2 emissions, not 
> likely to motivate many people.  Drowning cats and dogs would probably 
> be more emotionally motivating, given many people have a direct caring 
> connection to domestic cats and dogs.  Polar Bears are remote, and 
> many people could care less what happens to the Arctic. 
>  
> I wonder how many cats and dogs drowned in the Hurricane Katrina 
> floods and storm surge, which some people (not I) use as an example of 
> a climate change influenced disaster?  I suspect there were quite a few. 
>  
> I recall watching Al Gore's film "An Inconvenient Truth" where he used 
> Hurricane Katrina to score some points.  I found this a bit off 
> putting... While there is scientific basis for predicting that global 
> warming will increase the average power of hurricanes, typhoons and 
> cyclones (warmer ocean water), Hurricane Katrina could very well have 
> happened just as it did even if there was no human presence on Earth.
>  
> I mostly attempt to present a rational objective scientific empirical 
> basis for addressing anthropogenic climate warming, though of course 
> emphasizing the impacts of global sea level rise, more extreme 
> precipitation events, drought and fires.  This approach is not very 
> effective.  People respond more forcefully to purely emotional 
> arguments and images.  Natural disasters have always been happening, 
> and skeptics of the impacts of anthropogenic climate warming will 
> always argue they are caused by natural variables, even if the 
> frequency and intensity is increasing.
>  
> Maybe ads aimed at motivating action to address climate change could 
> be modeled after those Humane Society ads on televised media, 
> featuring footage of forlorn, abused or injured cats and dogs, with 
> Sarah McLaughlin singing and pleading for help... I'm not totally 
> being cynical, just partly, because I absolutely love much of 
> McLaughlin's music.  "Fumbling Towards Ecstasy" is a miracle of an 
> album. 
>  
> This McLaughlin song (below on YouTube), "In the Arms of an Angel," is 
> featured in some of these ads:
>  
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVbkz_3lO3c
>  
> On 8/28/10, *Paul Rumelhart* <godshatter at yahoo.com 
> <mailto:godshatter at yahoo.com>> wrote:
>
>
>     Well, good for you.  It's nice to see that my concerns were
>     roundly ignored.
>
>     We could meet in the middle, if anyone wanted to work in that
>     direction.  By stressing conservation, energy efficiency, energy
>     self-reliance, reductions in pollution, and the cutting of costs
>     for example.  All good ideas that would be beneficial today to all
>     of us.
>
>     Don't try to frighten me into using less energy with visions of
>     drowning polar bears.
>
>     Paul
>
>     Ted Moffett wrote:
>
>
>         I trust there is no faux pas in indicating on Vision2020 that
>         Mayor Nancy Chaney responded "Off List" intelligently and
>         warmly to my rather strongly worded post on the Argonaut
>         article "Halfway There."
>          Thanks!
>
>  
> ---------------------
> [Vision2020] U of I Argonaut 8/27/2010 "Halfway There: City Council 
> takes more steps to lower greenhouse gas emissions"
>  
> http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2010-August/071448.html
>
> On 8/27/10, Paul Rumelhart <godshatter at yahoo.com 
> <http://mailman.fsr.com/mailman/listinfo/vision2020>> wrote:
> >/
> />/
> />/   Especially since every time I look further into the science I
> />/ see things that make me go "hmmm".  That and the fact that I have 
> built
> />/ up thick shields against the recent trends by government agencies to
> />/ attempt to use our own fears to manipulate us into doing something.
> />/
> />/ Paul
> /
>
> Speaking of things that make me go "hmmmm"....
>
> After you critiqued the scientists who authored the following 
> study("Expert
> credibility in climate change"
> http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract )
> in this post
> ( http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2010-August/071111.html
> )
> I pointed out in this post (
> http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2010-August/071114.html ) that
> you could present your critique to a public discussion at Realclimate.org,
> where the very scientists in question answered some of the criticisms 
> to the
> paper you attacked, where it would be possible for your analysis to be
> possibly answered by professional climate scientists.
>
> No response.  Hmmmmm.... Could it be you did not want to present
> your critique to Realclimate.org, because it might be summarily sliced and
> diced by scientists who together know, oh, maybe 100 times more about the
> subject of climate science, physics, statistics and mathematics etc., than
> you do?  Or perhaps you never read my post in question?  Oh well, this is
> only Vision2020.moscow...
>
> As long as I'm "hmmming" along, I might as well also point out that there
> was no response to my post I am re-posting here in full below, with a few
> errors corrected, where I commented on your rather blatant confirmation
> biased filtered statement, it seems to me, that was in error, that 
> statement
> being that the list of estimates of climate sensitivity presented by 
> Barton
> Paul Levenson were "all over the board."
>
> I explain below why I disagree that these estimates are "all over the 
> board"
> while exploring other implications of Levenson's list of estimates of
> climate sensitivity, and related climate science issues.
>
> At the bottom of this post is a reference to an MIT study on the
> probabilities of global temperature increases by 2100.  MIT is not a
> government institution, but a private research institution, so you 
> might not
> view their climate science work with the same "thick shields" against
> government agencies:
>
> http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2010-July/070882.html
>
> Regarding the list of peer reviewed published scientific estimates of
> climate sensitivity from Levenson's research
> ( http://bartonpaullevenson.com/ClimateSensitivity.html ),
> referenced in your comments below,  there are implications worth exploring
> concerning your arguments to question anthropogenic climate warming.
>
> I thought it might be useful to pedantically point out that Kelvin and
> Celsius indicate the same temperature change per degree.  But Kelvin 
> starts
> at absolute zero, minus 273 Celsius (thus there are no minus Kelvin
> readings), while Celsius starts at the freezing point of H2O, with minus
> readings below, positive above.  100 Celsius is the boiling point of H2O.
> Climate sensitivity estimates in Kelvin indicate the same result as if 
> they
> were given in Celsius:
>
> http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2010-June/070628.html
>
> *Paul Rumelhart* godshatter at yahoo.com <http://yahoo.com> wrote
> *Mon Jun 21 19:06:15 PDT 2010*
>
> "The link you posted on climate sensitivity shows values that are all over
> the
> board, from 0.26 to 5.5 Kelvins.  There doesn't seem to be a trend that
> shows them converging on a final number, either.  Since 2000, the range
> is 0.75 to 4.5 Kelvin. Anything under about 1.2
> is probably not a problem, since it implies strong negative feedback.
> Anything over about 2 could be a definite problem, depending upon the 
> exact
> feedbacks
> involved.  It doesn't appear to me that climate scientists are on top of
> the feedback problem, either.  I'm not even confident that they have
> identified them all, let alone figured out exactly how they affect each
> other."
>
> -----------------
>
> These estimates on climate sensitivity from Barton Paul Levenson are not
> "all over the board," as you wrote.  Not one indicates a reduction in
> temperature from a doubling of atmospheric CO2.  If they were "all 
> over the
> board" some would show negative feedback(s) that more than overcome the
> radiative forcing of CO2, resulting in predictions of a temperature
> reduction, especially if your arguments referencing "Chaos Theory" applied
> to global climate are compelling.
>
> Furthermore, you make no reference to Levenson's analysis revealing 
> the mean
> of these studies indicates climate sensitivity to be 2.86 or 3.15
> Kelvin.   This mean result can be argued indicates that based on these
> studies, there is a significant probability that climate sensitivity 
> is high
> enough to justify taking action to reduce CO2 emissions.
>
> Given your emphasis on "Chaos Theory" to question the scientific consensus
> that human impacts are the primary driver of the the rapid and profound
> global climate change currently being observed which will increase
> significantly, it is a challenge to your argument that all these 
> studies on
> climate sensitivity show a temperature increase.  If the global climate
> system was as "chaotic" as you suggest, there would be a significant 
> number
> of peer reviewed published results predicting doubling atmospheric CO2 
> would
> decrease global average temperature from strong negative feedbacks,
> perhaps from cloud formation feedbacks, a variable you have pointed 
> out that
> climate scientists have difficulty modeling.  That all these estimates of
> climate sensitivity from Levenson's research show an increase in
> temperature, suggests that on this scientific question the climate 
> system is
> not as "chaotic" as you imply.  Indeed, the scientific question of climate
> sensitivity is perhaps one of the best examples of a question focusing on
> global *climate*, rather than more chaotic local or regional *weather*.
>
> Perhaps you can offer a list of peer reviewed published estimates of 
> climate
> sensitivity predicting temperature decreases in global average temperature
> from doubling atmospheric CO2?  Even the "dean" of anthropogenic climate
> change skeptics (to quote NASA climate scientist James Hansen from his 
> book
> "Storms of My Grandchildren" http://www.stormsofmygrandchildren.com/ ),
> MIT's Richard Lindzen, finds climate sensitivity to be positive, though
> minimal.  He has argued with his "Iris" theory that the climate system has
> mechanisms to dissipate thermal energy to space that lower temperature.
> However, Lindzen's "Iris" theory has not held up to scientific peer review
> ( [Vision2020] Anthropogenic Warming Skeptic Richard Lindzen Deconstructed
> Via Peer Review:
> http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2009-July/064927.html  ,
> [Vision2020] MIT Meteorologist Lindzen's Recent Climate Science Paper 
> Poorly
> Peer Reviewed, With Direct Critical Comments Rejected by GRL?* *
> http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2010-January/068047.html ).
>
> As far as these studies converging on a "final number" (Levenson's 
> analysis
> does suggest "convergence" in the graphs he presents.  Quoting 
> Levenson, "In
> summary statistics, N = 61, the mean is 2.86, and the sample standard
> deviation is 1.50. Notice how the estimates are beginning to converge with
> time"), climate science operates within a probable range of future
> temperature increases in global average temperatures from human CO2
> emissions and other impacts.  If you are demanding a "final number" before
> declaring the science confidently predicts a high probability of a
> significant temperature increase from doubling atmospheric CO2, you are
> making a scientifically flawed argument.
>
> Also, there are ten estimates of climate sensitivity in Levenson's 
> list from
> 2000-2006.  As you wrote, "the range is 0.75 to 4.5 Kelvin."  But nine of
> the estimates are from 1.8 to 4.5 Kelvin.  Only one estimate, 0.75
> Kelvin, shows climate sensitivity to be low enough to indicate
> human emissions increasing atmospheric CO2 and temperature are not a major
> problem, as shown below (however, ocean acidification is another important
> issue indicating CO2 emissions should be reduced, regardless of the
> magnitude of global warming).  It is not unreasonable to question one low
> estimate when nine others are much higher:
>
> http://bartonpaullevenson.com/ClimateSensitivity.html
>
>   Boer et al. 2000 3.5 Washington et al. 2000 2.1 Dai et al. 2001 2.1
> Wetherald
> et al. 2001 4.5 Boer and Yu 2003 3.50 Shaviv and Veizer 2003 0.75 
> Stern 2005
> 4.4 Sumi 2005 2.8 Goosse et al. 2006 1.8 Hegerl et al. 2006 2.5
> --------------------
>
> I'll briefing consider evidence that climate sensitivity is not a low  
> 0.75
> Kelvin.
>
> So far, human CO2 emissions have increased atmospheric CO2 by 
> approximately
> 110 ppm, from a pre-industrial level of about 280 ppm to a current 
> level of
> about 390 ppm ( http://co2now.org/ ), less than half of a doubling of
> atmospheric CO2.  Yet global average temperatures since 1880, according to
> climate scientists at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (
> http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ ), have already increased 0.8
> Celsius, depending on the error bars interpretation.
>
> Of course anthropogenic climate change skeptics, even if they accept this
> temperature increase as based on reliable temperature data, which many do
> not, will claim the increase is mostly from natural climate change
> variables. Read Roy Spencer on this question, a well known often quoted
> skeptic whose climate science analysis indicates natural variables are
> warming climate, that overall does not survive scientific peer review:
> http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/06/warming-in-last-50-years-predicted-by-natural-climate-cycles/
> .
>
> However, the consensus after decades of analysis by climate scientists
> around the globe is that natural climate change does not explain the 0.8
> degree Celsius increase since 1880.  Read 2010 reports from the National
> Academy of Sciences on climate change:
> http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=05192010and
> 2010 release from the American Statistical Association:
> http://magazine.amstat.org/blog/2010/03/01/climatemar10/ .
>
> Professor Scott Mandia's analysis on this issue is instructive, especially
> the implications of tropospheric warming coupled with stratospheric 
> cooling,
> as evidence temperature increases are not due to certain natural 
> variables.
> Mandia's analysis indicates Roy Spencer's claims at the website already
> given cannot be correct.  The isotope signature ratio of the CO2 in the
> atmosphere indicates the CO2 increase since pre-industrial level must 
> be due
> to the burning of fossil fuels and land use impacts, and the tropospheric
> warming coupled with stratospheric cooling is not explained by solar, 
> cloud,
> or ocean current climate variables.  Quoting Mandias: "Solar forcing, 
> cloud
> cover, ENSO, PDO, NAO, etc. cannot explain a cooler stratosphere even when
> ozone depletion is accounted for. Increasing greenhouse gases explain this
> coupling very well and climate models predict a warmer troposphere and a
> cooler stratosphere with increased greenhouse gases."  Read on this issue
> here:
> http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/global_warming/smoking_gun_humans_climate_change.html
> .
> ------------
> The physics regarding CO2's radiative forcing in Earth's atmosphere can
> largely explain Earth's warming trend, as human emissions have increased
> atmospheric CO2 level, according to the American Institute of 
> Physics.  The
> following website explores the history of the science as far back as the
> 1800s, with intense debate among scientists, among them Sherwood Idso, one
> of the scientists listed in Levenson's estimates of climate 
> sensitivity who
> found a low value for climate sensitivity:
> http://www.aip.org/history/climate/Radmath.htm .
>
> If there were also profound natural variables warming Earth's climate at
> this point in time, it's likely even more temperature increase would
> be observed.  In fact, there are natural climate trends that could be
> cooling the Earth's climate at this point.  Read March 2005 article by
> Ruddiman in Scientific American regarding an argument Earth should be
> tending to cool by natural variables:
> http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/news/0305046.pdf
> http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/ruddiman-william-f/
> --------------
> An increase in atmospheric CO2 from 280 to 390 ppm, less than half of a
> doubling of CO2 level, is already resulting in a global temperature 
> increase
> (0.8 Kelvin, or Celsius) that indicates climate sensitivity is well above
> 0.75 Kelvin.  It would be a very dangerous gamble for humanity to push
> atmospheric CO2 level to a doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial level 
> to 560
> ppm, given the probability climate sensitivity is significant.
>
> The climate feedbacks that are claimed are not well understood enough to
> make credible predictions regarding future climate, have been studied by
> climate scientists for decades; and reliable predictions are quantified
> within a range of probabilities. Read 2009 MIT study on probabilities of
> temperature increases:
> http://globalchange.mit.edu/resources/gamble/no-policy.html
> http://globalchange.mit.edu/files/document/MITJPSPGC_Rpt169.pdf .
> ------------------------------------------
> Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
>  
>  
>
>