[Vision2020] Climate Science "Groundhog Day" Re: Deep Solar Minimum 2008-09: Lowest Since 1913: March 2010 Global Temperature Set New High

Ted Moffett starbliss at gmail.com
Sat Apr 24 13:36:50 PDT 2010


On 4/23/10, Paul Rumelhart <godshatter at yahoo.com> wrote:

>
> The global climate is a chaotic system that is affected by multiple inputs,
> some cyclical in nature, some more-or-less random.  One such cycle is the
> sunspot cycle, which has lately stalled again and is on it's 8th day in a
> row of spotless sun days. We know so little about the system in general that
> it's hard to say what kind of a lag would be apparent or how long of a solar
> minimum would need to change x numbers of degrees in global mean
> temperature.


Another climate science "Groundhog Day" post...

You are not addressing what is perhaps the primary point of my post.  Many
of the skeptics of anthropogenic warming (such as Moscow's New Saint Andrews
Ed Iverson, who has written in the Moscow/Pullman Daily News that solar
forcing can explain recent climate changes, such as Arctic sea ice decline)
have for years been claiming the increases in solar irradiance are a
significant variable to explain the global temperature increases of recent
decades.  They are not claiming that we don't know enough to say what
impact solar forcing has on climate, rather they are making a claim that it
has been changing global climate.  Yet solar irradiance has decreased in
recent years, during the 2008-09 deep solar minimum, while, as my post
indicates, March 2010 set a record for global warmth.

The "we" you refer to apparently does not include some of the world's most
knowledgeable climate scientists, who have analysed the solar forcing
impacts of sunspot cycles, and changes in solar irradiance, in the last 30
years, using satellite data, to determine the probable global temperate
variations both from an extended solar minimum (the recent solar minimum, if
it continued, like the Maunder Minimum of 1645-1715 with its alleged links
to the Little Ice Age), and whether there is evidence the past 30 years
of global temperature increases are linked significantly to increases in
solar irradiance.

Read pages 11-14, the analysis "Temperature and Solar Data," by NASA's
climate scientist James Hansen, Director of the Goddard Institute for Space
Studies, at the following website.  Data and theory are
presented that contradict your claims of incredible uncertainty about the
temperature impacts of the recent extended solar minimum:
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2008/20080804_TripReport.pdf

Goddard Institute for Space Studies website, offering a wealth of
information on climate science ( http://www.giss.nasa.gov/ ) such as this
report regarding the past decade as the warmest on record (since the late
1800s):

2009: Second Warmest Year on Record; End of Warmest Decade
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/
--------------------
Regarding solar forcing of climate in recent decades, the following
analysis, referencing satellite data, indicates solar forcing is not the
cause of the increased warmth:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v443/n7108/abs/nature05072.html

*Nature* *443*, 161-166 (14 September 2006) | doi:10.1038/nature05072
Variations in solar luminosity and their effect on the Earth's climate

P. Foukal1<http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v443/n7108/abs/nature05072.html#a1>,
C. Fröhlich2<http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v443/n7108/abs/nature05072.html#a2>,
H. Spruit3<http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v443/n7108/abs/nature05072.html#a3>and
T. M. L. Wigley
4 <http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v443/n7108/abs/nature05072.html#a4>
 Abstract

Variations in the Sun's total energy output (luminosity) are caused by
changing dark (sunspot) and bright structures on the solar disk during the
11-year sunspot cycle. The variations measured from spacecraft since 1978
are too small to have contributed appreciably to accelerated global warming
over the past 30 years. In this Review, we show that detailed analysis of
these small output variations has greatly advanced our understanding of
solar luminosity change, and this new understanding indicates that
brightening of the Sun is unlikely to have had a significant influence on
global warming since the seventeenth century. Additional climate forcing by
changes in the Sun's output of ultraviolet light, and of magnetized plasmas,
cannot be ruled out. The suggested mechanisms are, however, too complex to
evaluate meaningfully at present.

------------------------

Paul Rumelhart wrote:

> Anyway, all it takes is a 1% or 2% change in albedo, or a small change in
> cloud cover for the game to change completely, which is something that we
> can't model realistically.  We'll just have to see how this pans out over
> the next few years.
>
> That's one of the reasons I'm so skeptical that our CO2 footprint is going
> to cause massive global damage if we don't do something RIGHT NOW.  It's
> almost impossible to isolate that one variable amongst the chaos that it's
> pointless to be worried about it until it's a bit more obvious that the
> world is going to hell in a hand basket.


It is not "almost impossible" to isolate that one variable (atmospheric CO2
level) to make probable scientific predictions of climate impacts, including
albedo and clouds.  If it were almost impossible, then thousands of climate
scientists have been wasting their time.  For over a century they have been
in detail using data and theory to predict the increases in global average
temperatures if atmospheric CO2 levels were to double, what has come to be
known as "climate sensitivity."  And the physics regarding CO2's influence
on trapping solar energy is well understood.  The skepticism on this issue
is rather incredible.  High school science experiments verify that CO2 traps
solar energy!  And the saturation problem has been explored in detail,
regarding how CO2 operates in Earth's atmosphere, as this discussion from
the American Institute of Physics indicates: Basic Radiation Calculations:
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/Radmath.htm
---------------
Below read the following extensive body of research (minus the graphs
Levenson constructed, which are worth considering), going back over a
century, on climate sensitivity, that is fundamental to discussions of how
certain or uncertain are the impacts of human sourced CO2 emissions.  Note
that none of these studies show a temperature decrease from doubling
atmospheric CO2, a result it would seem some studies would show, if the
climate system were as chaotic as some of the skeptics of anthropogenic
warming claim.

This huge body of research clearly sides with the claim of enough scientific
probability of profound temperature changes from a doubling of atmospheric
CO2, that not taking immediate action to lower human CO2 emissions is
playing Russian Roulette with the future of our planet.

It will take decades of concerted effort and technological innovation and
deployment, even assuming highly improbable international public and
political agreement, for CO2 emissions to be lowered dramatically.  Delaying
action only increases the probability increasing CO2 levels will trigger
climate feedbacks that will be damaging and/or difficult to stop, such as
albedo decreases from ice loss, methane hydrate breakdown increasing methane
releases, carbon sink reversal from increasing ocean temperatures (which
will cause atmospheric CO2 levels to increase faster with lower ocean carbon
sink capacity), damaging ocean acidification, increasing desertification or
loss of tropical forests, increases in ocean level, flooding coastal
areas, and rates of species extinction, the last two impacts NASA's climate
scientist James Hansen lists as the two most important reasons to address
anthropogenic climate warming:

http://bartonpaullevenson.com/ClimateSensitivity.html
 Estimates of Climate Sensitivity

(c) 2006 by Barton Paul Levenson
The "climate sensitivity" is an estimate of how much some factor in a
regional or global climate would change with a specific change in some
factor affecting it. That's pretty vague, of course. In practice, the term
has recently come to mean the change in Earth's surface temperature that
could be expected if the ambient level of carbon dioxide were doubled
(usually from the preindustrial level of 280 parts per million by volume to
560 ppmv, but sometimes from 300 to 600). Below are all the estimates I
could find in the literature.

Not all estimates are equal. Most of these, though not all, include the
effects of climate feedbacks such as water vapor. And these estimates
include ones which were later shown to be based on flawed models, erroneous
reasoning or outright mistakes. Examples would be Möller's estimate of 1963,
which didn't treat a column of atmosphere correctly, or Idso's estimate of
1980, which, as Schneider and others pointed out, is based on reasoning that
would violate the conservation of energy. Proceed with caution. Your mileage
may vary.

  Study Year Estimate (° K.) Arrhenius 1896 5.5 Hulbert 1931 4.0 Callendar
1938 2.0 Plass 1956 3.8 Möller 1963 9.6 Manabe and Wetherald 1967 2.36
Manabe 1971 1.9 Rasool and Schneider 1971 0.8 Sellers 1973 0.1 Sellers 1974
1.32 Weare and Snell 1974 0.7 Manabe 1975 2.3 Manabe and Wetherald 1975 2.93
Ramanathan 1975 1.5 Temkin and Snell 1976 1.7 Augustsson and Ramanathan 1977
1.9 Ohring and Adler 1978 0.78 Manabe and Stouffer 1979 4.0 Manabe and
Wetherald 1980 3.0 Idso 1980 0.26 Ramanathan 1981 2.25 Chou et al.
1982 2.29 Hall
and Cacuci 1982 2.42 Nicoli and Visconti 1982 2.30 Gilliland and Schneider
1984 1.6 Hansen et al. 1984 4.2 Washington and Meehl 1984 3.5 Wetherald and
Manabe 1986 4.0 Wilson and Mitchell 1987 5.2 Mitchell et al. 1989 3.5 Noda
and Tokoika 1989 4.3 Schlesinger et al. 1989 4.3 Washington and Meehl 1989
4.0 Wetherald and Manabe 1989 4.0 Oglesby and Saltzman 1990 4.0 McAvaney et
al. 1991 2.1 Boer et al. 1992 3.5 Hoffert and Covey 1992 2.3 Mahfouf et al.
1993 1.4 Manabe and Stouffer 1993 3.5 Lambert 1995 3.5 Thompson and Pollard
1995 2.1 Chen and Ramaswamy 1996 2.5 Gordon and O'Farrell 1997 4.3 Hegerl et
al. 1997 3.2 MacKay et al. 1997 2.6 Schlesinger et al. 1997 3.378 Bertrand
1998 2.5 Delworth et al. 1999 3.4 Roeckner et al. 1999 2.6 Wolbarst 1999
1.28 Boer et al. 2000 3.5 Washington et al. 2000 2.1 Dai et al. 2001
2.1 Wetherald
et al. 2001 4.5 Boer and Yu 2003 3.50 Shaviv and Veizer 2003 0.75 Stern 2005
4.4 Sumi 2005 2.8 Goosse et al. 2006 1.8 Hegerl et al. 2006 2.5
Augustsson T. and Ramanathan V. 1977. "A Radiative-Convective Model Study of
the CO2 Climate Problem." J. Atmos. Sci. 34, 448-451.

Arrhenius, Svante 1896. "On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air Upon
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Bertrand, C. 1998. "Climate simulation at the secular time scale." Thèse de
doctorat, Université catholique de Louvain, 208 pp.

Boer, G. J., G. Flato, M. C. Reader, and D. Ramsden 2000. "A transient
climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing:
Experimental design and comparison with the instrumental record for the
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Boer, G.J., N.A. McFarlane, and M. Lazare, 1992. "Greenhouse Gas-induced
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Boer George G. and Yu Bin 2003. "Dynamical aspects of climate sensitivity"
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Callendar, G.S. 1938. "The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and Its
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Noda, A., and Tokoika, T. 1989. "The effect of doubling CO2 concentration on
convective and nonconvective precipitation in a general circulation model
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Oglesby, R.J., and Saltzman, B., 1990. "Sensitivity of the equilibrium
surface temperature of a GCM to systematic changes in atmospheric carbon
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Ohring George and Adler Shoshana 1978. "Some Experiments with a Zonally
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Plass, Gilbert N. 1956. "The carbon dioxide theory of climatic change."
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Ramanathan, V. 1981. "The Role of Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions in the CO2
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Schlesinger Michael E., Zhao Zong-Ci, Vickers Dean 1989. "Design and
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GCM/Mixed-Layer Ocean Models." J. Climate 2, 641-655.

Schlesinger, M.E., N. Andronova, A. Ghanem, S. Malyshev, T. Reichler, E.
Rozanov, W. Wang and F. Yangi 1997. "Geophysical Scenarios of Greenhouse_Gas
and Anthropogenic Sulfate Aerosol Induced Climate Changes." Climate Research
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Shaviv, N., Veizer, J. 2003. "Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate?" GSA
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Climate Model by Using the Earth Simulator." Annual Report of the Earth
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climate sensitivity due to a doubling of CO2 with an atmospheric GCM Coupled
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The following table shows the climate sensitivity of various global climate
models. Some of these references duplicate some of those above.

  Model Study Estimate (° K.) AGCM/MLO Schlesinger et al. 1997 3.378 BMRC
AGCM McAvaney et al. 1991 2.1 CCC GCMII Lambert 1995 3.5 CCCma MLOM Boer and
Yu 2003 3.50 CCCma FDOM Boer and Yu 2003 3.50 CCM Washington and Meehl 1984
3.5 CGCM1 Boer et al. 2000 3.5 CM2.0 Stouffer et al. 2005 2.9 CM2.1 Stouffer
et al. 2005 3.4 CSIRO-Mk2 Gordon and O'Farrell 1997 4.3
ECBILT-CLIO-VECODE Goosse
et al. 2006 1.8 ECHAM3/LSG Hegerl et al. 1997 3.2 ECHAM4/OPYC3 Roeckner et
al. 1999 2.6 GENESIS 1.02 Thompson and Pollard 1995 2.1 GFDL_R30 Delworth et
al. 2001 3.4 GISS Hansen et al. 1984 4.2 LMD4CO Le Treu et al. 1994 3.9
LMD4MO Le Treu et al. 1994 3.6 MRI CGCM2.0 Yukimoto and Noda 2002 1.1 MRI
CGCM2.2 Yukimoto and Noda 2002 1.8 OSU Schlesinger et al. 1989 4.3 PCM
Washington
et al. 2000 2.1 UKMO Wilson and Mitchell 1987 5.2 UKMO HadCM2 Hulme et al.
1999 2.5 UKMO HadCM3 Hulme et al. 1999 3.3
Citations for studies listing multiple models:

Boer George G. and Yu Bin 2003. "Dynamical aspects of climate sensitivity"
Geophys. Res. Lett. 30(3), 35-1 - 35-4.

Hulme Mike, Mitchell John, Ingram William, Lowe Jason, Johns Tim, mark New,
Viner David 1999. "Climate Change Scenarios for Global Impact Studies."
Submitted to Global Environmental Change.

Le Treu H., Li Z. X., Forichon M. 1994. "Sensitivity of the LMD General
Circulation Model to Greenhouse Forcing Associated with Two Different Cloud
Water Parameterizations." J. Climate 7, 1827-1841.

R. J. Stouffer, A. J. Broccoli, T. L. Delworth, K. W. Dixon, R. Gudgel, I.
Held, R. Hemler, T. Knutson, Hyun-Chul Lee, M. D. Schwarzkopf, B. Soden, M.
J. Spelman, M. Winton, Fanrong Zeng 2005. "GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate
Models. Part IV: Idealized Climate Response." J Clim. Special Section 19,
723-740

Yukimoto Seiji, Noda Akira 2002. "Improvements of the Meteorological
Research Institute Global Ocean-atmosphere Coupled GCM (MRI-CGCM2) and its
Climate Sensitivity." CGer's Supercomputer Activity Report 10, 37-44. NIES.

Some acronyms:
  Abbreviation Meaning AGCM Atmospheric General Circulation Model CCC Canadian
Climate Centre CCM Community Climate Model CGCM Coupled Global Climate Model
CM Climate Model CO Control version (for LMD GCM) CSIRO Commonwealth
Scientific and Industrial Research Organization ECHAM European Center
HAMburg global climate model GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
(Princeton NJ, associated with NOAA (qv)) GISS Goddard Institute for Space
Studies LMD Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique MLO Mixed Layer
Ocean MO Modified
version (for LMD GCM) NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research (Boulder
CO) NOAA National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration OSU Oregon State
University PCM Parallel Climate Model


> Ted Moffett wrote:
>
>> It requires going back to 1913 to find a lower solar minimum during the
>> past century than the minimum of 2008-09.  As global average temperatures in
>> March 2010 (very low sunspot activity continues in 2010, though new solar
>> cycle 24 is under way:  http://solarb.msfc.nasa.gov/ ,
>> http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml ) set a new March monthly
>> record for intensity, the climate science speculators/skeptics of
>> anthropogenic warming, who have been pushing the solar forcing theory for
>> contemporary increases in global temperatures, might consider recanting
>> their position (no misleading and/or "cooked" data graphs regarding
>> contemporary temperature and solar activity presented here):
>>
>>
>>    NOAA: Global Temps Push Last Month to Hottest March on Record
>>
>> http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100415_marchstats.html
>> -------------------
>> http://www.appinsys.com/NASASolar.htm  --------------------------
>> A theory regarding the cause of the unusually deep solar minimum of
>> 2008-09 is presented below, from "Science" journal March 12, 2010:
>>
>>
>>      NASA - Solar 'Current of Fire' Speeds Up
>>
>>
>> http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/12mar_conveyorbelt/
>>
>> -------------------
>>
>> http://sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/327/5971/1350
>>
>> /Science/ 12 March 2010:
>> Vol. 327. no. 5971, pp. 1350 - 1352
>> DOI: 10.1126/science.1181990
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>    Variations in the Sun’s Meridional Flow over a Solar Cycle
>>
>> *David H. Hathaway^1 ^,* and Lisa Rightmire^2 *
>>
>> The Sun’s meridional flow is an axisymmetric flow that^ is generally
>> directed from its equator toward its poles at the^ surface. The structure
>> and strength of the meridional flow determine^ both the strength of the
>> Sun’s polar magnetic field and^ the intensity of sunspot cycles. We
>> determine the meridional^ flow speed of magnetic features on the Sun using
>> data from the^ Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. The average flow is
>> poleward^ at all latitudes up to 75°, which suggests that it extends^ to the
>> poles. It was faster at sunspot cycle minimum than at^ maximum and
>> substantially faster on the approach to the current^ minimum than it was at
>> the last solar minimum. This result may^ help to explain why this solar
>> activity minimum is so peculiar.^
>>
>> ------------------------------------------
>>
>> Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
>>
>>
>>
>
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