[Vision2020] RealClimate.org, 10/6/2009: Climate Change Slowing or Stopping?: 371 Responses!

[Ted Moffett]

Exactly.  What cooling trend?

The point of Stefan Rahmstorf's discussion on RealClimate (
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/10/a-warming-pause/#more-1265
)
was to argue that there is no substantial evidence of a "cooling trend" in
global climate.  Perhaps if someone thinks Rahmstorf's analysis flawed, they
can address his points specifically on Vision2020, or dispute them on
RealClimate directly.

I won't repeat the data and arguments again, except to say that the solar
minimum we are now in might contribute to a cooling trend in global climate,
yet there is no solid evidence this is happening; and even if the solar
minimum continues, according to the following analysis from NASA's climate
scientist James Hansen (page 11-14 in the report at the web site below), it
would only offset the positive climate forcing from increasing atmospheric
CO2 levels due to human sourced emissions by less than a decade.  Hansen
presented this detailed analysis of the arguments regarding solar impacts on
climate in part because it's a major talking point among anthropogenic
climate change skeptics:

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2008/20080804_TripReport.pdf

>From page 14:

"Thus if the sun remains "out", i. e., stuck for a long period in the
current solar minimum, it can only offset about 7 years of CO2 increase."

And in the same paragraph:

"Speculation that we may have entered a solar-driven long-term cooling trend
must be dismissed as a pipe-dream."
------------
Regarding IPCC temperature predictions for this century, they allow for a
number of scenarios, which differ widely in temperature increases:

http://www.ipcc.ch/

------------------------------------------
Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett

On Thu, Oct 15, 2009 at 2:55 PM, Ron Force <rforce2003 at yahoo.com> wrote:

>  As one wag put it, BBC "weather presenter" blogs; credulous BBC editor
> reprints.
>
> Full rebuttal here:
>
>
> http://climateprogress.org/2009/10/13/the-bbc-hudson-what-happened-to-global-warming-hottest-decade-in-recorded-history/
>
> Or, as Britain's own Met Office put it, there is no "cooling trend":
>
> … trends over the past 10 years show only a 0.07 °C increase in global
> average temperature. Although this is only a small increase, it indicates
> that there has been no global cooling over this period. In fact, over the
> past decade, most years have remained much closer to the record global
> average temperature reached in 1998 than to temperatures before the 1970s.
> All the years from 2000 to 2008 have been in the top 14 warmest years on
> record.
>
> Ron Force
> Moscow ID USA
>
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