<div>Exactly. What cooling trend? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The point of Stefan Rahmstorf's discussion on RealClimate ( <a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/10/a-warming-pause/#more-1265" target="_blank"><font color="#2a5db0">http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/10/a-warming-pause/#more-1265</font></a> ) was to argue that there is no substantial evidence of a "cooling trend" in global climate. Perhaps if someone thinks Rahmstorf's analysis flawed, they can address his points specifically on Vision2020, or dispute them on RealClimate directly. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I won't repeat the data and arguments again, except to say that the solar minimum we are now in might contribute to a cooling trend in global climate, yet there is no solid evidence this is happening; and even if the solar minimum continues, according to the following analysis from NASA's climate scientist James Hansen (page 11-14 in the report at the web site below), it would only offset the positive climate forcing from increasing atmospheric CO2 levels due to human sourced emissions by less than a decade. Hansen presented this detailed analysis of the arguments regarding solar impacts on climate in part because it's a major talking point among anthropogenic climate change skeptics:</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2008/20080804_TripReport.pdf">http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2008/20080804_TripReport.pdf</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>From page 14:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Thus if the sun remains "out", i. e., stuck for a long period in the current solar minimum, it can only offset about 7 years of CO2 increase."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And in the same paragraph:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Speculation that we may have entered a solar-driven long-term cooling trend must be dismissed as a pipe-dream."</div>
<div>------------</div>
<div>Regarding IPCC temperature predictions for this century, they allow for a number of scenarios, which differ widely in temperature increases:</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/">http://www.ipcc.ch/</a></div>
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<div>------------------------------------------</div>
<div>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett<br><br></div>
<div class="gmail_quote">On Thu, Oct 15, 2009 at 2:55 PM, Ron Force <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:rforce2003@yahoo.com">rforce2003@yahoo.com</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote style="BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; PADDING-LEFT: 1ex" class="gmail_quote">
<div>
<div style="FONT-FAMILY: times new roman,new york,times,serif; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">As one wag put it, BBC "weather presenter" blogs; credulous BBC editor reprints.<br><br>Full rebuttal here: <br><br><span><a href="http://climateprogress.org/2009/10/13/the-bbc-hudson-what-happened-to-global-warming-hottest-decade-in-recorded-history/" target="_blank">http://climateprogress.org/2009/10/13/the-bbc-hudson-what-happened-to-global-warming-hottest-decade-in-recorded-history/</a></span><br>
<br>Or, as Britain's own Met Office put it, there is no "cooling trend":<br><br>… trends over the past 10 years show only a 0.07 °C increase in global average temperature. Although this is only a small increase, it indicates that there has been no global cooling over this period. In fact, over the past decade, most years have remained much closer to the record global average temperature reached in 1998 than to temperatures before the 1970s. All the years from 2000 to 2008 have been in the top 14 warmest years on record.<br>
<font color="#888888"><br>Ron Force<br>Moscow ID USA<br></font></div>
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