[Vision2020] State of "Calamity" Declared: Cat 4 (131 mph) Typhoon Parma Predicted to Stall Over Flood Weary Phillipines

[Ted Moffett]

Info on Typhoon Parma from Naval Observatory Portal, Joint Typhoon Warning
Center:

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1909.gif

More discussion of Typhoon Parma:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1336

>From website above:

Super Typhoon Parma intensified dramatically early this morning, forming a
tiny "pinhole" eye (Figure 1) only seen in very intense tropical cyclones.
The last Atlantic hurricane to form a pinhole eye was Hurricane Wilma, the
strongest Atlantic hurricane of all time. Parma's outer spiral bands are
already beginning to spread over the eastern positions of the Philippines,
and beginning Friday will likely bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the regions
hard-hit by Typhoon Ketsana, including the capital of Manila. More
seriously, the super typhoon may make landfall along the northeastern
portion of Luzon Island in the Philippines on Saturday as a Category 4 or 5
typhoon. The uncertainty in the forecast is very high, as steering currents
are expected to weaken on Friday, and the presence of Typhoon Melor to the
northeast introduces an additional element of uncertainty. It is quite
possible that Parma will stall near or just offshore the northern coast of
Luzon Saturday through Sunday as a super typhoon, dumping rainfall in excess
of a foot over northern Luzon, as forecast by the ECMWF model. Northern
Luzon received 2 - 4 inches of rain from Typhoon Ketsana last week, and an
additional 12+ inches of rain falling on soils already saturated from
Ketsana's rains would likely cause severe flash flooding and major
landslides capable of killing hundreds. Another dismal possibility is
offered by the NOGAPS model, which forecasts that Parma will cross directly
over Luzon north of Manila, bringing heavy rains in excess of six inches to
Manila, where more than 16 inches of rain fell Saturday during Typhoon
Ketsana. It is also possible that Parma will miss the Philippines, staying
far enough offshore that the Philippines will not suffer a major flooding
disaster. However, the odds current favor another major typhoon disaster for
the Philippines this weekend.
----------------------

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aF2l9tli4duY

Philippines Declares ‘Calamity,’ Thousands Flee Typhoon’s Path

 By Francisco Alcuaz Jr. and Clarissa Batino

Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The Philippines declared a national “state of
calamity” as Typhoon Parma headed for Luzon, sending thousands to shelters
already crowded with victims of Tropical Storm Ketsana, which flooded the
Manila area a week ago.

In central and eastern Luzon, some 33,200 people had been evacuated as of 6
p.m. local time yesterday, Lieutenant Colonel Ernesto Torres, spokesman for
the National Disaster Coordinating Council, said by mobile phone text
message. Thousands more fled to emergency centers in Luzon’s northern
provinces, Chief Superintendent Roberto Damian said by phone.

“We’ve learned: We don’t wait for the disaster,” Albay province Governor Joey
Salceda<http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Joey+Salceda&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1>said
in a phone interview. He said he promised families who leave their
homes 5 kilos (11 pounds) of rice for each day they are away. Almost 2,000
people stuck in ports after inter-island ferries were grounded are also
considered “evacuated,” he said. “Better stranded than left out there at
sea.”

Parma will bring more rain to areas devastated by Ketsana, which left 293
people dead in Manila and surrounding provinces earlier this week before
killing more than 130 in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos.
------------------------------------------
Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/attachments/20091002/8f398bba/attachment.html