<div>Info on Typhoon Parma from Naval Observatory Portal, Joint Typhoon Warning Center:</div>
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<div><a href="http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1909.gif">http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1909.gif</a></div>
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<div>More discussion of Typhoon Parma:</div>
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<div><a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1336">http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1336</a></div>
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<div>From website above:</div>
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<div>Super Typhoon Parma intensified dramatically early this morning, forming a tiny "pinhole" eye (Figure 1) only seen in very intense tropical cyclones. The last Atlantic hurricane to form a pinhole eye was Hurricane Wilma, the strongest Atlantic hurricane of all time. Parma's outer spiral bands are already beginning to spread over the eastern positions of the Philippines, and beginning Friday will likely bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the regions hard-hit by Typhoon Ketsana, including the capital of Manila. More seriously, the super typhoon may make landfall along the northeastern portion of Luzon Island in the Philippines on Saturday as a Category 4 or 5 typhoon. The uncertainty in the forecast is very high, as steering currents are expected to weaken on Friday, and the presence of Typhoon Melor to the northeast introduces an additional element of uncertainty. It is quite possible that Parma will stall near or just offshore the northern coast of Luzon Saturday through Sunday as a super typhoon, dumping rainfall in excess of a foot over northern Luzon, as forecast by the ECMWF model. Northern Luzon received 2 - 4 inches of rain from Typhoon Ketsana last week, and an additional 12+ inches of rain falling on soils already saturated from Ketsana's rains would likely cause severe flash flooding and major landslides capable of killing hundreds. Another dismal possibility is offered by the NOGAPS model, which forecasts that Parma will cross directly over Luzon north of Manila, bringing heavy rains in excess of six inches to Manila, where more than 16 inches of rain fell Saturday during Typhoon Ketsana. It is also possible that Parma will miss the Philippines, staying far enough offshore that the Philippines will not suffer a major flooding disaster. However, the odds current favor another major typhoon disaster for the Philippines this weekend.</div>
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<div><a href="http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aF2l9tli4duY">http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aF2l9tli4duY</a></div>
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<div><span class="news_story_title">Philippines Declares ‘Calamity,’ Thousands Flee Typhoon’s Path </span><br> </div>
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<div id="email">By Francisco Alcuaz Jr. and Clarissa Batino</div>
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<p>Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The Philippines declared a national “state of calamity” as Typhoon Parma headed for Luzon, sending thousands to shelters already crowded with victims of Tropical Storm Ketsana, which flooded the Manila area a week ago. </p>
<p>In central and eastern Luzon, some 33,200 people had been evacuated as of 6 p.m. local time yesterday, Lieutenant Colonel Ernesto Torres, spokesman for the National Disaster Coordinating Council, said by mobile phone text message. Thousands more fled to emergency centers in Luzon’s northern provinces, Chief Superintendent Roberto Damian said by phone. </p>
<p>“We’ve learned: We don’t wait for the disaster,” Albay province Governor <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Joey+Salceda&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Joey Salceda</a> said in a phone interview. He said he promised families who leave their homes 5 kilos (11 pounds) of rice for each day they are away. Almost 2,000 people stuck in ports after inter-island ferries were grounded are also considered “evacuated,” he said. “Better stranded than left out there at sea.” </p>
<p>Parma will bring more rain to areas devastated by Ketsana, which left 293 people dead in Manila and surrounding provinces earlier this week before killing more than 130 in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos.</p></div></div>
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<div>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett<br> </div>