[Vision2020] Scripps Researchers Find Clear Evidence of Human-Produced Warming in World's Oceans

[Ted Moffett]

Sorry for the duplication of information, but I considered this research on
ocean warming and human impacts worth it's own separate post.

An article from the Scripps Institute of Oceanography on analysis of ocean
warming, that provides empirical evidence of human impacts on climate, is
presented below.  Thus the statement on Vision2020
recently ( http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2009-July/064733.html
)
that climate scientists "...are largely theoreticians, and the
confirmation (or not) of their theories can only be judged over many, many
lifetimes." is questionable.  The empirical findings presented in
this article are one of the reasons there is a wide ranging consensus among
climate scientists that human impacts are altering climate:


http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2005/0217warmingwarning.shtml

Excerpt from website above on the article presented below:

Barnett said his research is important because the search for evidence of
global warming has tended to focus on the atmosphere. But 90 percent of
global warming goes into the Earth's oceans, he said.
-----------------------
http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/Releases/?releaseID=666

FOR RELEASE ON Thursday, February 17, 2005 12:00 AM PST

Thursday, February 17, 2005


Scripps Researchers Find Clear Evidence of Human-Produced Warming in World's
Oceans

Climate warming likely to impact water resources in regions around the globe

Scripps Institution of Oceanography / University of California, San Diego
Scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of
California, San Diego, and their colleagues have produced the first clear
evidence of human-produced warming in the world's oceans, a finding they say
removes much of the uncertainty associated with debates about global
warming.

In a new study conducted with colleagues at Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison
(PCMDI),Tim Barnett and David Pierce of Scripps Institution used a
combination of computer models and real-world "observed" data to capture
signals of the penetration of greenhouse gas-influenced warming in the
oceans. The authors make the case that their results clearly indicate that
the warming is produced anthropogenically, or by human activities.

"This is perhaps the most compelling evidence yet that global warming is
happening right now and it shows that we can successfully simulate its past
and likely future evolution," said Tim Barnett, a research marine physicist
in the Climate Research Division at Scripps. Barnett says he was "stunned"
by the results because the computer models reproduced the penetration of the
warming signal in all the oceans. "The statistical significance of these
results is far too strong to be merely dismissed and should wipe out much of
the uncertainty about the reality of global warming."
At a news briefing (Feb. 17 at 2 p.m. EST) and symposium presentation (Feb.
18 at 1:45-4:45 p.m. EST) during the 2005 American Association for the
Advancement of Science annual meeting in Washington, D.C., Barnett will
discuss the details of the study and explain why the results hold
implications for millions of people in the near future.

According to Barnett, the climate mechanisms behind the ocean study will
produce broad-scale changes across the atmosphere and land. In the decades
immediately ahead, the changes will be felt in regional water supplies,
including areas impacted by accelerated glacier melting in the South
American Andes and in western China, putting millions of people at risk
without adequate summertime water.

Similarly, recent research by Barnett and his colleagues with the
Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative analyzed climate warming impacts
on the western United States using one of the models involved in the new
study. The earlier study concluded that climate warming will likely alter
western snow pack resources and the region's hydrological cycle, posing a
water crisis in the western U.S. within 20 years.

"The new ocean study, taken together with the numerous validations of the
same models in the atmosphere, portends far broader changes," said Barnett.
"Other parts of the world will face similar problems to those expected--and
being observed now--in the western U.S. The skill demonstrated by the
climate models in handling the changing planetary heat budget suggests that
these scenarios have a high enough probability of actually happening that
they need to be taken seriously by decision makers."

In the new study, Barnett and his colleagues used computer models of climate
to calculate human-produced warming over the last 40 years in the world's
oceans. In all of the ocean basins, the warming signal found in the upper
700 meters predicted by the models corresponded to the measurements obtained
at sea with confidence exceeding 95 percent. The correspondence was
especially strong in the upper 500 meters of the water column.

It is this high degree of visual agreement and statistical significance that
leads Barnett to conclude that the warming is the product of human
influence. Efforts to explain the ocean changes through naturally occurring
variations in the climate or external forces- such as solar or volcanic
factors--did not come close to reproducing the observed warming.

In addition to Barnett and Pierce, coauthors of the study include Krishna
Achutarao, Peter Gleckler and Benjamin Santer of Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory.

The global climate models used in the study included the Parallel Climate
Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research and Department of
Energy (DOE) and the HadCM3 from the Hadley Centre (United Kingdom). The
sharing of these model results made this study possible, says Barnett. The
work was a contribution on behalf of the International Detection and
Attribution Group (IDAG), which is sponsored by the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Change Data Detection Program, a
jointly funded NOAA and DOE program. Additional support was provided by DOE
through support of PCMDI and Scripps.

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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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