<div>Sorry for the duplication of information, but I considered this research on ocean warming and human impacts worth it's own separate post.</div>
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<div>An article from the Scripps Institute of Oceanography on analysis of ocean<br>warming, that provides empirical evidence of human impacts on climate, is<br>presented below. Thus the statement on Vision2020<br>recently ( <a href="http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2009-July/064733.html">http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2009-July/064733.html</a>)<br>
that climate scientists "...are largely theoreticians, and the<br>confirmation (or not) of their theories can only be judged over many, many<br>lifetimes." is questionable. The empirical findings presented in<br>
this article are one of the reasons there is a wide ranging consensus among<br>climate scientists that human impacts are altering climate:<br> </div>
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<div><a href="http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2005/0217warmingwarning.shtml">http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2005/0217warmingwarning.shtml</a><br><br>Excerpt from website above on the article presented below:<br><br>
Barnett said his research is important because the search for evidence of<br>global warming has tended to focus on the atmosphere. But 90 percent of<br>global warming goes into the Earth's oceans, he said.<br>-----------------------<br>
<a href="http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/Releases/?releaseID=666">http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/Releases/?releaseID=666</a></div>
<div><br>FOR RELEASE ON Thursday, February 17, 2005 12:00 AM PST<br><br>Thursday, February 17, 2005<br><br><br>Scripps Researchers Find Clear Evidence of Human-Produced Warming in World's<br>Oceans<br><br>Climate warming likely to impact water resources in regions around the globe<br>
<br>Scripps Institution of Oceanography / University of California, San Diego<br>Scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of<br>California, San Diego, and their colleagues have produced the first clear<br>
evidence of human-produced warming in the world's oceans, a finding they say<br>removes much of the uncertainty associated with debates about global<br>warming.<br><br>In a new study conducted with colleagues at Lawrence Livermore National<br>
Laboratory's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison<br>(PCMDI),Tim Barnett and David Pierce of Scripps Institution used a<br>combination of computer models and real-world "observed" data to capture<br>
signals of the penetration of greenhouse gas-influenced warming in the<br>oceans. The authors make the case that their results clearly indicate that<br>the warming is produced anthropogenically, or by human activities.<br>
<br>"This is perhaps the most compelling evidence yet that global warming is<br>happening right now and it shows that we can successfully simulate its past<br>and likely future evolution," said Tim Barnett, a research marine physicist<br>
in the Climate Research Division at Scripps. Barnett says he was "stunned"<br>by the results because the computer models reproduced the penetration of the<br>warming signal in all the oceans. "The statistical significance of these<br>
results is far too strong to be merely dismissed and should wipe out much of<br>the uncertainty about the reality of global warming."<br>At a news briefing (Feb. 17 at 2 p.m. EST) and symposium presentation (Feb.<br>
18 at 1:45-4:45 p.m. EST) during the 2005 American Association for the<br>Advancement of Science annual meeting in Washington, D.C., Barnett will<br>discuss the details of the study and explain why the results hold<br>implications for millions of people in the near future.<br>
<br>According to Barnett, the climate mechanisms behind the ocean study will<br>produce broad-scale changes across the atmosphere and land. In the decades<br>immediately ahead, the changes will be felt in regional water supplies,<br>
including areas impacted by accelerated glacier melting in the South<br>American Andes and in western China, putting millions of people at risk<br>without adequate summertime water.<br><br>Similarly, recent research by Barnett and his colleagues with the<br>
Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative analyzed climate warming impacts<br>on the western United States using one of the models involved in the new<br>study. The earlier study concluded that climate warming will likely alter<br>
western snow pack resources and the region's hydrological cycle, posing a<br>water crisis in the western U.S. within 20 years.<br><br>"The new ocean study, taken together with the numerous validations of the<br>same models in the atmosphere, portends far broader changes," said Barnett.<br>
"Other parts of the world will face similar problems to those expected--and<br>being observed now--in the western U.S. The skill demonstrated by the<br>climate models in handling the changing planetary heat budget suggests that<br>
these scenarios have a high enough probability of actually happening that<br>they need to be taken seriously by decision makers."<br><br>In the new study, Barnett and his colleagues used computer models of climate<br>
to calculate human-produced warming over the last 40 years in the world's<br>oceans. In all of the ocean basins, the warming signal found in the upper<br>700 meters predicted by the models corresponded to the measurements obtained<br>
at sea with confidence exceeding 95 percent. The correspondence was<br>especially strong in the upper 500 meters of the water column.<br><br>It is this high degree of visual agreement and statistical significance that<br>
leads Barnett to conclude that the warming is the product of human<br>influence. Efforts to explain the ocean changes through naturally occurring<br>variations in the climate or external forces- such as solar or volcanic<br>
factors--did not come close to reproducing the observed warming.<br><br>In addition to Barnett and Pierce, coauthors of the study include Krishna<br>Achutarao, Peter Gleckler and Benjamin Santer of Lawrence Livermore National<br>
Laboratory.<br><br>The global climate models used in the study included the Parallel Climate<br>Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research and Department of<br>Energy (DOE) and the HadCM3 from the Hadley Centre (United Kingdom). The<br>
sharing of these model results made this study possible, says Barnett. The<br>work was a contribution on behalf of the International Detection and<br>Attribution Group (IDAG), which is sponsored by the National Oceanic and<br>
Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Change Data Detection Program, a<br>jointly funded NOAA and DOE program. Additional support was provided by DOE<br>through support of PCMDI and Scripps.<br><br>------------------------------------------<br>
Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett<br> </div>