[Vision2020] The State of the States

[Kenneth Marcy]

3 August 2009

Political Party Affiliation: 30 States Blue, 4 Red in '09 So Far
Utah and Wyoming are most Republican
by Jeffrey M. Jones

http://www.gallup.com/poll/122003/Political-Party-Affiliation-States-Blue-Red-Far.aspx

PRINCETON, NJ -- An analysis of Gallup Poll Daily tracking data from the first 
six months of 2009 finds Massachusetts to be the most Democratic state in the 
nation, along with the District of Columbia. Utah and Wyoming are the most 
Republican states, as they were in 2008. Only four states show a sizeable 
Republican advantage in party identification, the same number as in 2008. 
That compares to 29 states plus the District of Columbia with sizeable 
Democratic advantages, also unchanged from last year.

<see article for charts and graphs>

These results are based on interviews with over 160,000 U.S. adults conducted 
between January and June 2009, including a minimum of 400 interviews for each 
state (305 in the District of Columbia). Each state's data is weighted to 
demographic characteristics for that state to ensure it is representative of 
the state's adult population.

Because the proportion of independents in each state varies considerably (from 
a low of 25% in Pennsylvania to a high of 50% in Rhode Island and New 
Hampshire), it is easiest to compare relative party strength using "leaned" 
party identification. Thus, the Democratic total represents the percentage of 
state residents who identify as Democratic, or who identify as independent 
but when asked a follow-up question say they lean to the Democratic Party. 
Likewise, the Republican total is the percentage of Republican identifiers 
and Republican-leaning independents in a state.

The accompanying map shows each state's relative party strength (the full data 
for each state appears at the end of the article) in the first half of 2009, 
which primarily covers the time since Barack Obama took office as president. 
States in which one of the parties enjoys a 10 or more percentage point 
advantage in leaned identification are considered solid supporters of that 
party. States with between a five- and nine-point advantage are considered 
leaning toward that party, and states with less than a five-point advantage 
for one of the parties are considered competitive.

<see article for graphs and charts>

Bottom Line

Since Obama was inaugurated, not much has changed in the political party 
landscape at the state level -- the Democratic Party continues to hold a 
solid advantage in party identification in most states and in the nation as a 
whole. While the size of the Democratic advantage at the national level 
shrunk in recent months, this has been due to an increase in independent 
identification rather than an increase in Republican support. That finding is 
echoed here given that the total number of solid and leaning Republican 
states remains unchanged from last year. While the Republican Party is still 
able to compete in elections if they enjoy greater turnout from their 
supporters or greater support for its candidates from independent voters, the 
deck is clearly stacked in the Democratic Party's favor for now.

<more material in the article>

http://www.gallup.com/poll/122003/Political-Party-Affiliation-States-Blue-Red-Far.aspx


Ken