[Vision2020] INPC Forum: Von Walden Geophysics Question: Sea Level Rise

[Ted Moffett]

I checked the CV of the five panelists on the INPC forum, and UI's Geography
Dept. Von Walden is the only "climate scientist" in the group.  Given his
focus on research into the cryosphere, and the fact that melting of
Greenland and (more long term) Antarctica would cause dramatic sea level
rise, one of the most significant impacts of anthropogenic warming that
would change the lives of hundreds of millions, here is a question, or two:

Given likely climate change scenarios for continued greenhouse gas emissions
inducing melting of Greenland and more long term Antarctica, should the US
be preparing for significant sea level rise over a centuries long time
frame?  Perhaps a response could reference the accuracy or lack thereof in
the predictions of the 2008 Delta Commission from the Netherlands, which
recommends planning (Delta Report, summary, pg. 10:* *
http://www.deltacommissie.com/doc/deltareport_summary.pdf ) for sea level
rise of 2 to 4 meters by 2200 (though this is in part from land subsidence
along with climate change).  Isn't this centuries long planning necessary,
given that climate change can continue for centuries, given CO2 atmospheric
lifespan (NASA's climate scientist James Hansen has stated that about one
fifth of CO2 emissions will remain in the atmosphere for 1000 years:
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2008/20080804_TripReport.pdf pg. 2)
and potential climate change feedbacks (releases from methane hydrates, for
example), even if greenhouse gas emissions are lowered or stopped in this
century?
----------------------

>   Consider the Delta Report from the Netherlands, stating that "Great
> urgency attaches to the implementation of this
> advice." regarding predictions of .65 to 1.3 meter sea level rise by 2100,
> and 2 to 4 meters by 2200, from climate change, with costs estimates of 40
> plus billion in Euros to implement a plan for flood protection through 2050,
> 45 to 75 billion Euros from 2050-2100.  This report is prescient in
> indicating clearly that choices we are making now to mitigate climate change
> will have impacts for centuries, a time frame human economic and political
> planning rarely addresses:
>
  http://www.deltacommissie.com/doc/summary.pdf
>
> http://www.deltacommissie.com/doc/twelve_recommendations.pdf
>
------------------

>  Note estimates of impacts of one meter of sea level rise globally offered
> below.  And if there are two to four meters sea level rise by 2200?:
>  Population, area and economy affected by a 1 m sea level rise (global and
> regional estimates, based on today's situation):
>
>
> http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/population-area-and-economy-affected-by-a-1-m-sea-level-rise-global-and-regional-estimates-based-on
> -
>
--------------


  A recent discussion from climate scientists on the latest reseach into sea
> level rise is at this URL from Realclimate:
>
>
> http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/09/how-much-will-sea-level-rise/
>
> --------------------
>

Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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