[Vision2020] INPC Forum, Climate Discussion: Possibly Contact J. Michael Scott, U of I Professor in CNR

[Paul Rumelhart]

Ted Moffett wrote:
> In fact, regarding questions already posed in this thread, I suggested 
> on Vision2020 to Paul Rumelhart that he contribute his doubts about 
> the computer modeling of climate change to Realclimate.org, to 
> scientists with extensive expertise in mathematics and computer 
> modeling of climate change.  Paul never indicated, that I read on 
> Vision2020, whether he posed his questions or doubts on these issues 
> to Realclimate.org.

I have not contributed my doubts about computer modeling to 
realclimate.org.  Oddly enough, I still feel justified in having an 
opinion on the subject.  I do see that they have two FAQs on the 
subject: 
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/11/faq-on-climate-models/ 
and 
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/01/faq-on-climate-models-part-ii/.

One thing that jumps out at me and throws up a red flag is that the 
models are more correct if you average the various model outputs 
together.  This tells me that the models are still in their infancy, 
despite how extensive and sophisticated they appear to be.  It's a hard 
problem, hence my skepticism.

Paul