[Vision2020] Craig Venter On Climate Change

[Ted Moffett]

http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/venter.dimbleby07/venter.dimbleby07_index.html

There has been much debate about climate change perhaps because we cannot
see carbon dioxide when we exhale, or when we burn oil and coal to heat our
homes, or use petrol to power our cars or fly planes. We do, however, have
scientific instruments that can accurately measure what we humans produce
and the increasing amount of carbon that we are adding to our environment.

The data is irrefutable--carbon dioxide concentrations have been steadily
increasing in our atmosphere as a result of human activity since the
earliest measurements began. We know that on the order of 4.1 billion tons
of carbon are being added to and staying in our atmosphere each year.  We
know that burning fossil fuels and deforestation are the principal
contributors to the increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in our
atmosphere. We know that increasing CO2 concentrations has the same effect
as the glass walls and roof of a greenhouse. It lets the energy from the sun
easily penetrate but limits its escape, hence the term greenhouse gas.

Observational and modeling studies have confirmed the association of
increasing CO2 concentrations with the change in average global temperatures
over the last 120 years.  Between 1906 and 2005 the average global
temperature has increased 0.74 degrees C. This may not seem like very much,
but it can have profound effects on the strength of storms and the survival
of species including coral reefs.

Eleven of the last twelve years rank among the warmest years since 1850.
While no one knows for certain the consequences of this continuing unchecked
warming, some have argued it could result in catastrophic changes, such as
the disruption of the Gulf Steam which keeps the UK out of the ice age or
even the possibility of the Greenland ice sheet sliding into the Atlantic
Ocean.  Whether or not these devastating changes occur, we are conducting a
dangerous experiment with our planet. One we need to stop.

The developed world including the United States, England and Europe
contribute disproportionately to the environmental carbon, but the
developing world is rapidly catching up.  As the world population increases
from 6.5 billion people to 9 billion over the next 45 years and countries
like India and China continue to industrialize, some estimates indicate that
we will be adding over 20 billion tons of carbon a year to the atmosphere.
Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause
further warming and induce many changes to the global climate that could be
more extreme than those observed to date. This means we can expect more
climate change; more ice cap melts, rising sea levels, warmer oceans and
therefore greater storms, as well as more droughts and floods, all which
compromise food and fresh water production.

The increase in population coupled with climate change will tax every aspect
of our lives. In a world already struggling to keep up with demand, will we
be able to provide the basics of food, clean water, shelter and fuel to
these new citizens of Earth? And will governments be able to cope with new
emerging infections, storms, wildfires, and global conflicts?

So is there any way of avoiding these apocalyptic visions of the future
coming true? Many have argued that we simply need to conserve, to alter and
regress our standard of living and block the industrialization of developing
countries. In my view this is extremely naive thinking. Furthermore, even
the most optimistic models on climate change show a dramatically altered
planet Earth going forward even if we embrace all alternative options such
as wind and solar energy, and electric cars. Our entire world economy and
the ability of modern society to provide life's basics, depend on the very
industrialization that contributes to our possible demise.

Yet, sadly, very little thinking, planning or projections about how to cope
with the carbon problem and climate change have taken into account the
capabilities of modern science to produce what we have long needed to help
solve these global threats.
It is clear to me that we need more approaches and creative solutions. We
need new disruptive ideas and technologies to solve these critical global
issues.  This is where, I believe, biology and genomics, come in.
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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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