[Vision2020] Super Tuesday

[Donovan Arnold]

Andreas,
   
  I think you are missing the larger picture in this election, as is every person pulling for Hillary or willing to vote for her. 
   
  The problem does not rest in the election of Hillary or Obama in the General Election. All things being equal as they are now, come November, either Hillary or Obama stands about an equal chance of winning the general election. The problem is what comes afterward and in the elections of 2008 and after all over the country. 
   
  People will vote for Hillary for President, but they would also vote for Republicans in the Senate and House in order to neutralize her. Members of the House and Senate that are living in Republican leaning states where her negatives are 50%+ will not work with Hillary because of the stigma of doing so. 
   
  Obama would lead have coattails that would help Democratic candidates throughout the country. He would be able to work for change because others would want to work with him, not against him. In addition, he can work with others and bring them together. 
   
  Hillary is about dividing, Obama is about bring people together. What kind of person do you want presenting the Democratic Party, a person with huge negatives that will not be able to work with the Congress, or someone that can bring everyone together and bring in more participation. 
   
  I think Obama is much better for the country in the long run, and would not be devastating for the Democratic Party as Hillary would. 
   
  Democrats have the opportunity to place anyone they want in the White House. The price for placing Hillary in the White House is a high one for the Democratic Party. It will cost them lots of potential seats in the House and Senate, and even more governorships and local state legislative offices.  
   
  Best Regards,
   
  Donovan

Andreas Schou <ophite at gmail.com> wrote:
  Roger --

Hillary is a stronger candidate than you think, though less strong
than Obama. This is for three reasons:

(a) Hillary's negatives are redlined. Conservatives hate her entirely
in disproprortion to what she's actually done. There's frankly nothing
anything could say about Hillary that would depress turnout. I believe
the standard line is that she's a homicidal(1) drug-dealing(2)
lesbian(3) with a heart of ice. That being said, she's still polling
within the margin of error of McCain.

(b) McCain has a choice: money or voters. If he picks Huckabee,
business donors will flee from him even more strongly than they
already have. The Republican base hates him--so he can't even rely on
small donors. Plus, he's accepted public funding for the primary and
spent $39m of his $50m. This means that he's likely to be in total
media blackout from July to September.

Alternatively, he could pick a moneycrat with a connection to
republican donors (who do not, for the greater part, tend to be the
same people as fund the Republican party). In that case, he would have
people to fund him, but no one to vote for him.

(c) The things McCain has had to say to win the Republican primary, as
well as some things he's done in the past, will run his negatives up
significantly. Does he really want ads running across the country,
telling Americans that he wants to stay in Iraq for "ten years, or a
million years?" Or his connection to the Keating Five

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