[Vision2020] Super Tuesday

[Andreas Schou]

Roger --

Hillary is a stronger candidate than you think, though less strong
than Obama. This is for three reasons:

(a) Hillary's negatives are redlined. Conservatives hate her entirely
in disproprortion to what she's actually done. There's frankly nothing
anything could say about Hillary that would depress turnout. I believe
the standard line is that she's a homicidal(1) drug-dealing(2)
lesbian(3) with a heart of ice. That being said, she's still polling
within the margin of error of McCain.

(b) McCain has a choice: money or voters. If he picks Huckabee,
business donors will flee from him even more strongly than they
already have. The Republican base hates him--so he can't even rely on
small donors. Plus, he's accepted public funding for the primary and
spent $39m of his $50m. This means that he's likely to be in total
media blackout from July to September.

Alternatively, he could pick a moneycrat with a connection to
republican donors (who do not, for the greater part, tend to be the
same people as fund the Republican party). In that case, he would have
people to fund him, but no one to vote for him.

(c) The things McCain has had to say to win the Republican primary, as
well as some things he's done in the past, will run his negatives up
significantly. Does he really want ads running across the country,
telling Americans that he wants to stay in Iraq for "ten years, or a
million years?" Or his connection to the Keating Five