[Vision2020] Heat Capacity, Time Constant, & Sensitivity Of Earth's Climate System

[Ted Moffett]

Roger et. al.

Thanks for your question...

Given that the participants in the climate science discussions (as limited
as they are...) on Vision2020 often offer limited objective and balanced
research into the hard science, I will offer evidence for the contrarian
position (they need help), after presenting the following source to refute
the argument that current anthropogenic sourced atmospheric CO2 increases
are not causing significant global average temperature increases, this
argument being that current CO2 increases are caused by temperature
increases induced by other variables, solar forcing, etc., (this argument
also considered in the paleoclimate record), denying that human sourced CO2
is a powerful climate forcing variable, an argument apparently offered to
refute the mainstream consensus position among climate scientists that the
billions of tons of CO2 the human race is/has emitting/emitted into our
atmosphere will induce significant and problematic climate change.

It's hard to tell what you are exactly implying by your question.  So I
guessed.  I apologize if I misinterpreted

If you've got the time, you might want to explore what some climate
scientists have presented regarding the "lag between temperature and
CO2" question:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/04/the-lag-between-temp-and-co2/

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=54

--------------
Now, to argue the contrarian position on climate change, which is what I am
going to do for awhile in any Vision2020 posts I present on climate change
(if I bother to waste my time, given the obvious limited interest):

Although anyone following my posts on climate change knows I have already
presented contrarian arguments over and over, from climate change skeptics
darling MIT's Richard Lindzen, to Northwest skeptic Don Easterbrook at
Western Washington University, not to mention advertising the "Heartland
Institute's" pseudo-science coal and oil industry denialist effort, I offer
a reference to a published paper on climate science
to support skepticism regarding the conclusions of the IPCC, said paper
predicting much lower global temperature changes from a doubling of
atmospheric CO2.  Have fun:

http://www.ecd.bnl.gov/steve/pubs/HeatCapacity.pdf

----------------------
Yours in the pursuit of objective truth,

Ted Moffett


On 4/24/08, lfalen <lfalen at turbonet.com> wrote:
>
> Ted
> Look at the production of C02 and a raise in temperature as a function of
> time. Which occurs first?
> Roger
> -----Original message-----
> From: "Ted Moffett" starbliss at gmail.com
> Date: Wed, 23 Apr 2008 21:48:13 -0700
> To: vision2020 vision2020 at moscow.com
> Subject: [Vision2020] NOAA: Carbon Dioxide, Methane Rise Sharply in 2007
>
> > http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080423_methane.html
> >
> >  Carbon Dioxide, Methane Rise Sharply in 2007
> >
> > April 23, 2008
> > Last year alone global levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the primary
> > driver of global climate change, increased by 0.6 percent, or 19 billion
> > tons. Additionally methane rose by 27 million tons after nearly a decade
> > with little or no increase. NOAA scientists released these and other
> > preliminary findings today as part of an annual update to the agency's
> > greenhouse gas index <http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi>, which tracks
> data
> > from 60 sites around the world.
> >
> > The burning of coal, oil, and gas, known as fossil fuels, is the primary
> > source of increasing carbon dioxide emissions. Earth's oceans,
> vegetation,
> > and soils soak up half of these emissions. The rest stays in the air for
> > centuries or longer. Twenty percent of the 2007 fossil fuel emissions of
> > carbon dioxide are expected to remain in the atmosphere for thousands of
> > years, according to the latest scientific assessment by the International
> > Panel on Climate Change.
> >
> > Viewed another way, last year's carbon dioxide increase means 2.4
> molecules
> > of the gas were added to every million molecules of air, boosting the
> global
> > concentration to nearly 385 parts per million (ppm). Pre-industrial
> carbon
> > dioxide levels hovered around 280 ppm until 1850. Human activities pushed
> > those levels up to 380 ppm by early 2006.
> >
> > The rate of increase in carbon dioxide concentrations accelerated over
> > recent decades along with fossil fuel emissions. Since 2000, annual
> > increases of two ppm or more have been common, compared with 1.5 ppm per
> > year in the 1980s and less than one ppm per year during the 1960s.
> >
> > Methane levels rose last year for the first time since 1998. Methane is
> 25
> > times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but there's
> far
> > less of it in the atmosphere�about 1,800 parts per billion. When related
> > climate affects are taken into account, methane's overall climate impact
> is
> > nearly half that of carbon dioxide.
> >
> > Rapidly growing industrialization in Asia and rising wetland emissions in
> > the Arctic and tropics are the most likely causes of the recent methane
> > increase, said scientist Ed Dlugokencky from NOAA's Earth System Research
> > Laboratory.
> >
> > "We're on the lookout for the first sign of a methane release from
> thawing
> > Arctic permafrost," said Dlugokencky. "It's too soon to tell whether last
> > year's spike in emissions includes the start of such a trend."
> >
> > Permafrost, or permanently frozen ground, contains vast stores of carbon.
> > Scientists are concerned that as the Arctic continues to warm and
> permafrost
> > thaws, carbon could seep into the atmosphere in the form of methane,
> > possibly fueling a cycle of carbon release and temperature rise.
> >
> > NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety
> through
> > the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and
> > information service delivery for transportation, and by providing
> > environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources.
> > Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems
> > (GEOSS<http://www.noaa.gov/eos.html>),
> > NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 70 countries and the
> > European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as
> > integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.
> >
> > -----------------------------------------
> >
> > Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
> >
> >
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/attachments/20080425/7e1b2f20/attachment-0001.html