[Vision2020] City Council Election Predictions

Sat Sep 8 11:05:58 PDT 2007

Tom I,

  Thanks for your reply. You are more bold in your predictions then me. I would never make a prediction using the term "definitely". My predictions are based on mathematical and logical probabilities based on the way the election is designed as well as current trends and past political elections in the voter population. I would argue that there is a very tiny probability that we could not have three winners for the four year seats and one winner for the two year seat, as you indicated, because people can be eliminated from the election and we can have tie results. But I think your prediction is 99% probable. 

  I am usually only about 90% correct in most my elections because I cannot 100% predict turnout. However, based on my numbers, the most likely winners for a strong conservative turnout will be:

  Wayne Krauss
  David A. Uberuaga
  Aaron Ament

  In a strong liberal turnout:

  Wayne Krauss
  Aaron Ament
  Tom Lamar 

  Notice the only names that change are Lamar and Uberuaga, but order is everything when the top three places are a win. 

  I say a zero sum game between Lamar and Pall because Moscow is going to either elect one of two liberals to the council, but not three. With Lamar in the election, liberals will choose Lamar as their second choice and Pall as their third. 

  You also asked, "If you say there are 'shoe ins', why would you recommend someone else?"

  Unfortunately, what I believe will happen, and what will actually happen are frequently not the same events.  I think the three candidates; Krauss, Uberuaga, and Pall are the best for Moscow. 

  Krauss and Uberuaga provide a strong business background which is what Moscow needs with its economic downturns and a national recession on its way. They are also fresh voices with new ideas. Pall offers experience, dedication, and commitment, something else I think Moscow needs. Pall, despite some of her mistakes, is still a great asset to the community. She is bright, and offers invaluable experience and expertise on the how city government functions. It will be a great loss for Moscow not to have her on the council. Another side effect of having Pall on the council is she counter balances some of the more socially conservative views on the Council. 

  I think the terms, Tom, Moderate, Conservative, and Liberal, are relative to the person. To me, Krauss is a moderate, to you he might be conservative, to Trent Lott, he is probably fairly liberal. 

  You brought up platforms. I don't think platforms are the largest factor in elections, and rarely are followed by the elected candidates because of the realities and limitations of the office. I think competency and character, as well as money, media, their opponent and the voting habits and mood of the constituents are larger indicators of election outcome. 

  Best,

  Donovan

  Tom Ivie <the_ivies3 at yahoo.com> wrote:
    Donovan,
  I can definitely tell you that 3 people will win the 4 yr seat and 1 will win the 2 yr seat.  You recommend who to vote for...can you tell us why to vote for them?  Do you already know their platforms?  I don't mean to be flippant, just confused by a couple of your statements.  If you say there are "shoe ins", why would you recommend someone else? What do you mean by "zero sum between Lamar and Pall"? That the difference in number of votes will be negligable?  Can you explain what makes Krauss a moderate? (I don't know him or his politics)

Donovan Arnold <donovanjarnold2005 at yahoo.com> wrote:
    This election looks interesting. Here is my predictions for the outcome (assuming all the candidates remain the same on election day). What are your predictions?

  4 Year Seat;

  Wayne Krauss
  Aaron Ament
  Tom Lamar or David A. Uberuaga

  2 Year Seat

  Walter Steed

  Commentary:

  Krauss and Ament are shoe ins 

  I think most moderate and conservatives will cast one vote for Krauss, and most liberals one vote for Ament. They are in. the question is, "Who takes the last seat?" 

  Tough Reelection for Pall and Lamar

  Interesting election this go around. I think Linda Pall and Lamar are in for a run for their seats. Anything can happen in this election. But I think Pall is in serious trouble for reelection. She must defeat Tom Lamar, David Uberuaga, and Dan Carscallen in order to capture the third four year seat. I could be wrong, but I don't think she can pull that off. Lamar is new, and has to win a seat with two other incumbents and a popular moderate, Wayne Krauss. I think he can beat Pall, but not Ament and Krauss. It could very well be a zero sum election between Lamar and Pall. 

  Riding the Coattails of Krauss: Best chance for Uberuaga and Carscallen

  I think the best chance for Uberuaga and Carscallen would be to ride the coattails of Krauss. His popularity, and a semi linked fiscal conservative pro-business agenda between the three could land two of the three (Krauss, Uberuaga, Carscallen) in the Council. 

  Walter Steed most likely to win 2 year seat:

  I think Walter Steed is a solid candidate, with good name recognition. I believe that the weakened MCA, strong name recognition, a good reputation, experience, coupled with Holmes scraping off a few liberal votes against a less established opponent, will give Steed a narrow victory. 

  RECOMMENDATION:

  I recommend that Moscow Vote:

  (4 Year)
  Wayne Krauss
  Linda Pall
  David A. Uberuaga

  (2 Year)
  Walter Steed

  * I believe if you vote for Lamar or Carscallen, you are also voting against Linda Pall, because that is who she will fighting for the third seat.

  Best,

  Donovan

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