[Vision2020] fires

[Sunil Ramalingam]

If I'd known Tom Boatner was going to be interviewed, I'd have watched that 
episode of 60 Minutes.

Glenn, I think you're off on this.  Are you sure the kangaroo rat rules 
barred brush clearing?  Or was it ploughing?  And can you show that it was a 
significant factor in these fires?  More significant than wind, dry fuels, 
and aspect?

Sunil


>From: donald edwards <donaledwards at hotmail.com>
>To: <vision2020 at moscow.com>
>Subject: Re: [Vision2020] fires
>Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2007 15:52:28 -0700
>
>
>Here's a pretty nice take on the fire issue in California and Ketchum, Id.  
>Seems to make the point that a longer, warmer fire season allows the timber 
>and foliage to start drying out earlier and stay dry for longer.  Other 
>factors are mentioned, too.
>
>(CBS) 60 Minutes:
>
>Every year you can count on forest fires in the West like hurricanes in the 
>East, but recently there has been an enormous change in Western fires. In 
>truth, we've never seen anything like them in recorded history. It appears 
>we're living in a new age of mega-fires -- forest infernos ten times bigger 
>than the fires we're used to seeing. To find out why it's happening, 60 
>Minutes correspondent Scott Pelley went out on the fire line to see the 
>burning of the American West.
>Last fire season was the worst in recorded history. This year is already a 
>close second, with two months to go. More than eight million acres have 
>burned this year already. The men and women facing the flames are elite 
>federal firefighters called "Hotshots." Nationwide there are 92 hotshot 
>crews of 20 members each. 60 Minutes found a group of New Mexico hotshots 
>in the Salmon River Mountains of Idaho. They had set up camp in a burned 
>out patch of forest with fire raging all around. They were hitting the day, 
>exhausted, halfway through a 14-day shift. Leaving camp to scout out the 
>situation, the firefighters anticipated a mess and they found it: the 
>valley was engulfed in smoke. The flames blew through the firebreak lines 
>they dug the day before. "We were trying to turn the corner yesterday, and 
>that's when it kind of blew out. I think we got more ground over here 
>that's been taken. Any questions?" a firefighter said. No question, this 
>day the fire won. It surged across the mountain, forcing the hotshots to 
>evacuate. All across the West, crews are playing defense, often pulling 
>back to let acres burn, but standing firm to save communities. One stand 
>this season came in August at Ketchum, Idaho. Forecasters said it was 99 
>percent certain Ketchum would be lost if nothing was done. Some 1,700 
>local, state, and federal firefighters came from across the nation, working 
>around the clock from a mountainside camp. Residents were evacuated, as 
>300-foot flames headed for homes. 60 Minutes joined up with Tom Boatner, 
>who after 30 years on the fire line, is now the chief of fire operations 
>for the federal government. "A fire of this size and this intensity in this 
>country would have been extremely rare 15, 20 years they're commonplace 
>these days," Boatner says. "Ten years ago, if you had a 100,000 acre fire, 
>you were talking about a huge fire. And if we had one or two of those a 
>year, that was probably unusual. Now we talk about 200,000 acre fires like 
>it's just another day at the office. It's been a huge change," he says. 
>Asked what the biggest fires now are, Boatner says, "We’ve had, I believe, 
>two fires this summer that have been over 500,000 acres, half a million 
>acres, and one of those was over 600,000 acres." "You wouldn’t have 
>expected to see this how recently?" Pelley asks. "We got records going back 
>to 1960 of the acres burned in America. So, that's 47 fire seasons. Seven 
>of the 10 busiest fire seasons have been since 1999," Boatner says. "You 
>know what? It’s hotter than hell right here," Pelley remarks. "It's been 
>pretty damn hot," Boatner says. "You can imagine the challenge for young 
>men and women with hand tools like this to come up here and put out a fire 
>like this, but there's thousands of people down there with multimillion 
>dollar homes that are counting on them to do that."
>
>It was 20 years ago that firefighters got their first glimpse of what was 
>to come. In 1988, a third of Yellowstone National Park burned. Since then, 
>fires have broken records in nine states. Several mega-fires, like one in 
>Arizona, have burned over half a million acres each. Why are there more of 
>these fires? Turns out the forest service is partly to blame with a policy 
>it started 100 years ago. The policy was to put out all fires immediately. 
>"Because we so successfully fought fire and eliminated fire from this 
>ecosystem for a hundred years, because we thought that was the right thing 
>to do, we’ve allowed a huge buildup of fuel in these woods. So now, when 
>the fires get going, there’s a lot more to burn than historically you 
>would’ve seen in a forest like this," Boatner explains. "Is it possible 
>that we're gonna get to the point where we have these mega-fires and we 
>just can't fight them because they're too large?" Pelley asks. "Well, we're 
>there already. We have identified numerous fires this summer that we know 
>we can't put out with the resources we have available. Because of the 
>severity of the burning conditions and the size of the fires," Boatner 
>explains. The severity of the burning and size of the fires caught the eye 
>of Tom Swetnam, one of the world's leading fire ecologists. He wanted to 
>know what's touched off this annual inferno and whether it's truly a 
>historic change. At the University of Arizona, Swetnam keeps a remarkable 
>woodpile, comprised of the largest collection of tree rings in the world. 
>His rings go back 9,000 years, and each one of those rings captures one 
>year of climate history. Swetnam found recent decades have been the hottest 
>in 1,000 years. And recently, he and a team of top climate scientists 
>discovered something else: a dramatic increase in fires high in the 
>mountains, where fires were rare. "As the spring is arriving earlier 
>because of warming conditions, the snow on these high mountain areas is 
>melting and running off. So the logs and the branches and the tree needles 
>all can dry out more quickly and have a longer time period to be dry. And 
>so there's a longer time period and opportunity for fires to start," 
>Swetnam says "The spring comes earlier, so the fire season is just longer," 
>Pelley remarks. "That's right. The fire season in the last 15 years or so 
>has increased more than two months over the whole Western U.S. So actually 
>78 days of average longer fire season in the last 15 years compared to the 
>previous 15 or 20 years," Swetnam says. Swetnam says that climate change -- 
>global warming -- has increased temperatures in the West about one degree 
>and that has caused four times more fires. Swetnam and his colleagues 
>published those findings in the journal "Science," and the world’s leading 
>researchers on climate change have endorsed their conclusions. But what was 
>news to the scientists is something Tom Boatner has noticed for about ten 
>years now. "This kind of low brush would normally be really moist and 
>actually be a fairly good barrier to fire. But as I look at this I just see 
>wilted leaves everywhere. There's no moisture left in them. They're dead," 
>he points out.(CBS) Professor Swetnam wanted to show 60 Minutes just how 
>much has changed, so he brought Pelley to the top of Arizona's Mount Lemon. 
>Two mega-fires there killed everything, even the Ponderosa Pines. "You 
>know, I was always taught that Ponderosas were big, robust trees that were 
>built to withstand fire," Pelley remarks. "And that when everything else 
>burned off, the Ponderosas were still standing. But look at them." "The 
>Ponderosas are able to withstand the low severity fires where you get 
>flames of maybe one to two or three feet high. But now the behavior of 
>these fires is off the scale," Swetnam says. Asked how much things have 
>changed, Swetnam tells Pelley, "Well, we're seeing century-old forests that 
>had never sustained these kinds of fires before, being razed to the 
>ground." Back at the battle to save Ketchum, Idaho, the day shift was 
>coming off, and the night shift going on. How long does it take to bring a 
>fire like this under control? Says Tom Boatner, "This particular fire is 
>about 45,000 acres and they’ve been working on it for about 11 or 12 days 
>and they've got it about 50 percent contained and with any luck they will 
>finish containing this fire in another five or six days something like 
>that." Containing it meant fighting fire with fire. Using drip torches, 
>they started a controlled burn around the town, creating a barrier, so that 
>when the forest fire hit there'd be nothing left to burn. These pre-burns 
>are risky though. Trees can torch suddenly and explosively, sending embers 
>up to a mile away. By daybreak on the 18th day, the gamble had paid off. 
>The blaze came within 100 feet of some homes, but not one home was lost. It 
>will take years for this forest to recover, but Tom Swetnam told Pelley 
>with these new super hot fires some forests may never grow back. "We used 
>to have forest soil here that might have been this deep," he says, 
>indicating about a foot of depth, "but now we're just down to rock." "So 
>you're down to mineral and sort of a rock, sort of armored soil. And that 
>is not a good habitat for trees to re-establish," Swetnam says. "Where do 
>you think all this is headed?" Pelley asks, "As fires continue to burn, 
>these mega-fires continue to burn, we may see ultimately a majority, maybe 
>more than half of the forest land converting to other forest, other types 
>of ecosystems," Swetnam says. "Wait a minute. Did you just say that there's 
>a reasonable chance we could lose half of the forests in the West?" Pelley 
>asks. "Yes, within some decades to a century, as warming continues, and we 
>continue to get large scale fires," Swetnam replies. Swetnam says that this 
>is what we have to look forward to. He estimates, in the Southwest alone, 
>nearly two million acres of forest are gone and won't come back for 
>centuries. The hotshots are already planning for the next fire season. In 
>2006, the feds spent $2 billion on fire fighting, seven times more than 
>just ten years ago. "You know, there are a lot of people who don't believe 
>in climate change," Pelley remarks. "You won't find them on the fire line 
>in the American West anymore," Tom Boatner says. "'Cause we've had climate 
>change beat into us over the last ten or fifteen years. We know what we’re 
>seeing, and we're dealing with a period of climate, in terms of temperature 
>and humidity and drought that's different than anything people have seen in 
>our lifetimes."> From: vision2020-request at moscow.com> Subject: Vision2020 
>Digest, Vol 16, Issue 331> To: vision2020 at moscow.com> Date: Fri, 26 Oct 
>2007 15:30:43 -0700> > Send Vision2020 mailing list submissions to> 
>vision2020 at moscow.com> > To subscribe or unsubscribe via the World Wide 
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> > Today's Topics:> > 1. Re: Fw: Re: Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity> 
>(Glenn Schwaller)> 2. Re: More GMA PAC Financial Disclosure Report (Mark 
>Solomon)> 3. Re: real economic development in Moscow (Mark Solomon)> > > 
>----------------------------------------------------------------------> > 
>Message: 1> Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2007 15:19:25 -0700> From: "Glenn Schwaller" 
><vpschwaller at gmail.com>> Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Fw: Re: Western U.S. 
>Forest Wildfire> Activity> To: vision2020 at moscow.com> Message-ID:> 
><323338460710261519lae3e6c9v3ab1ab3e9f64a3d9 at mail.gmail.com>> Content-Type: 
>text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"> > It has EVERYTHING to do with whacko 
>environmentalists and the radical> policies implemented by the Clinton 
>administration, which brought an abrupt> and unfortunate end to rational 
>forest and brush management techniques.> > Only a few short years ago these 
>enviro-freaks successfully passed laws> prohibiting SoCal residents from 
>clearing brush near their homes because of> an "endangered" kangaroo rat 
>and the spotted mesquite weevil. Do you think> that had controlled burns 
>and brush clearing be allowed, these catastrophic> fires could have been 
>avoided, or at least lessened in their intensity, thus> preserving homes, 
>(as well as the legally-privileged weevils and rats, who> by the way lost 
>their lives and homes as well . . )> > As far as any "global warming" 
>connection to the fires, I would think if> there was any influence at all 
>it would be to REDUCE the incidence of brush> fires. Global warming would 
>create a more hot and arid climate with reduced> rainfall, hence reduced 
>growth of brush to fuel the fires, hence less fire.> So what ya need is a 
>long term drought to cut down on the amount of brush to> burn.> > GS> > > > 
> > > > On 10/26/07, Sunil Ramalingam <sunilramalingam at hotmail.com> wrote:> 
> >> > Roger,> >> > I don't disagree that there's a lot of underbrush in 
>lots of national> > forests, along with a lot of skinny trees that will 
>never get big, that> > are> > great fuel for fires. This has little if 
>anything to do with the actions> > of> > environmentalists. This is from a 
>century of putting out fires when> > they're> > small, and a lot of that 
>had to do with preserving timber. Firefighting> > has> > been in transition 
>away from that practice for a while now, but there's> > plenty of brush out 
>there.> >> > I disagree that it's the USFS policy to not clear out brush. 
>Prescription> > fires are lit to clear out brush, and a lot of those take 
>place every> > spring> > and fall.> >> > This is a separate issue from the 
>SoCal fires. The vegetation in these> > areas is primarily brush, not 
>timber.> >> > I think you're making blanket statements about 
>environmentalists> > here. Some> > don't want any intervention, some agree 
>there should be some intervention.> > Those saying there should be no 
>intervention aren't making any of the> > policies currently in place. I 
>consider myself an environmentalist, but I> > don't think we should let all 
>fires burn freely. At the same time, even> > though I fought wildland fires 
>for ten summers, I don't think we should be> > putting them all out either. 
>I certainly think anyone living out in the> > urban-rural interface should 
>be clearing out the brush around their> > property.> >> > Sunil> >> >> > 
> >From: lfalen <lfalen at turbonet.com>> > >Reply-To: lfalen 
><lfalen at turbonet.com>> > >To: vision2020 at moscow.com> > >Subject: 
>[Vision2020] Fw: Re: Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity> > >Date: Fri, 
>26 Oct 2007 11:08:02 -0700> > >> > >Sunil> > >There seems to be a problem 
>with "reply all" for this email so I am> > >forwarding it instead.> > >> > 
> >The underbrush problem is a general one. Not clearing out underbrush is> 
> > >part of the Forest Service's policy. It has been well documented that 
>at> > >least some vocal environmentalist do not want any intervention by 
>man or> > >management of the forests. This includes thinning out underbrush 
>or> > insect> > >control. Dead trees due to insect infestation adds to the 
>fire hazard> > >provided by underbrush. They are partly right in that 
>before man's> > >involvement ther were small fires that cleared the 
>underbrush which> > >prevented a hotter fire from wiping out the entire 
>forest. Not all> > >environmentalist or forest managers see it this way. 
>There is legislation> > >being proposed at the state and national level to 
>change this policy.> > >Roger> > >-----Original message-----> > >> > >From: 
>"Sunil Ramalingam" sunilramalingam at hotmail.com> > >Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2007 
>22:05:05 -0700> > >To:> > >Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Western U.S. Forest 
>Wildfire Activity> > >> > >Roger, what is the basis of your statement:> > 
> >> > >'The extent of the fires we exacerbated by the dense underbrush 
>that> > >resulltd from environmetalist not allowing it to be cleared out,'> 
> > >> > >and which fires are you talking about?> > >> > >Sunil> > >> > >> > 
> >> > >> >> >> > =======================================================> > 
>List services made available by First Step Internet,> > serving the 
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>mailto:Vision2020 at moscow.com> > 
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> > > ------------------------------> > Message: 2> Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2007 
>15:24:06 -0700> From: Mark Solomon <msolomon at moscow.com>> Subject: Re: 
>[Vision2020] More GMA PAC Financial Disclosure Report> To: "Bill London" 
><london at moscow.com>, "v2020" <vision2020 at moscow.com>> Message-ID: 
><a0623099fc348188a44cc@[192.168.0.100]>> Content-Type: text/plain; 
>charset="us-ascii" ; format="flowed"> > Thanks for the link.. As I'm always 
>interested in who is contributing > big $$ in elections, I looked it up and 
>saw Palouse Rentals and > Construction had donated $1000 to GMA. Maybe I'm 
>just out of the > loop, but I did not know that name. A quick search on the 
>Sec'y of > State website gives up John Ficca as the president of the > 
>corporation, which, by the way, has been administratively dissolved > by 
>the Sec'y of State for failure to file annual reports since 2004.> > m.> > 
>At 2:39 PM -0700 10/26/07, Bill London wrote:> >The political action 
>committee of the Greater Moscow Alliance is > >raising big money to buy the 
>Moscow City Council election.> >According to their latest financial report 
>(see below for the report > >dated October 25), the GMA committee raised 
>$12,800 and has already > >spent $8,700 on this election. They had a $1700 
>print bill, so > >they've got a direct mail card to send to all of us. BL> 
> >> >> >Financial Disclosure Report dated October 5, 2007> 
> >http://www.MoscowCares.com/GMA_Disclosure.htm> >> >Financial Disclosure 
>Report dated October 25, 2007> 
> >http://www.moscowcares.com/GMA_Disclosure_102507.htm> > > > 
>------------------------------> > Message: 3> Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2007 
>15:30:05 -0700> From: Mark Solomon <msolomon at moscow.com>> Subject: Re: 
>[Vision2020] real economic development in Moscow> To: "Darrell Keim" 
><keim153 at gmail.com>, "Bruce and Jean Livingston"> 
><jeanlivingston at turbonet.com>> Cc: moscow vision 2020 
><vision2020 at moscow.com>> Message-ID: 
><a062309a0c34819de949e@[192.168.0.100]>> Content-Type: text/plain; 
>charset="us-ascii"> > Darrell,> > The perverted irony of the situation is 
>overwhelming: the > anti-business talk comes completely from certain 
>business people who > disagreed with the outcome of the last city election 
>and the Thompson > rezone denial which they carried to Boise as part of the 
>Chamber > tour. Their attempt to paint Moscow black has succeeded beyond 
>their > wildest dreams. Why they would want to do that is beyond me, but 
>they > have. It wasn't even on the radar screen before then.> > m.> > At 
>3:03 PM -0700 10/26/07, Darrell Keim wrote:> >Bruce,> >Responses below:> >> 
> >> >On 10/25/07, Bruce and Jean Livingston > 
> ><<mailto:jeanlivingston at turbonet.com>jeanlivingston at turbonet.com> > 
> >wrote:> >> >Darrell, good to hear from you again.> >> >I don't think I 
>disagree with you on any point in this post. And I > >don't see any point 
>you make as inconsistent with my personal > >feelings about the best future 
>direction of the city.> >> >> >I really wasn't seeking to be inflammatory 
>with the post, more > >informational. A lot of people don't consider the 
>business > >environment and its impact on our town when they talk quality 
>of > >life.> >> >> >I recognize the existence here of a healthy retail 
>economy and a > >vibrant downtown, and I acknowledge that they contribute 
>to our > >quality of life. Are you suggesting that either our local retail 
>or > >business climate is not healthy? If so, what is unhealthy and how > 
> >would you propose to make things healthier?> >> >> >I've talked to alot 
>of people about this of late, and got a lot of > >opinions. One of the 
>goals I've set for myself as the new Chamber > >E.D. is to meet with 
>several of our member businesses each week. I > >ask them a variety of 
>questions, and always include this one: "What > >do you think is the 
>biggest issue facing Moscow business?" Over > >half have told me they think 
>it is the cities anti-business > >reputation, be it real or simply 
>perceived.> >> >Even if the reputation is simply something perceived, with 
>no basis > >in reality, it is an impediment to business that we need to be 
> > >concerned about.> >> >> >> >Bruce> >> >----- Original Message -----> 
> >From: <mailto:keim153 at gmail.com>Darrell Keim> >To: 
><mailto:thansen at moscow.com>Tom Hansen> >Cc: 
><mailto:idahotom at hotmail.com>Tom Hansen ; > ><mailto:vision2020 at moscow.com> 
>v2020> >Sent: Thursday, October 25, 2007 2:22 PM> >Subject: Re: 
>[Vision2020] real economic development in Moscow> >> >> >Bill et al:> >> >I 
>was at the MCA's recent economic forum. I found it to be very > 
> >interesting in both what was addressed, and what wasn't. I felt the > 
> >panelists did a fair job of describing what aspects of Moscow drew > 
> >them to locate here. Nice parks, short/no commute, culture, > 
> >universities, etc. If pushed, I think the panelists would summarize > 
> >what brought them as quality of life. Also mentioned as reasons for > 
> >coming to Moscow were Alturas and the Small Business Incubator.> >> >I 
>liked what BJ Swanson had to say about the importance of bringing > >in 
>higher paying jobs (The example in her case being tech. jobs. > >Other 
>types of high paying jobs create the same phenomenon). > >Essentially, she 
>advocated for working to bring in higher paying > >jobs, and that retail 
>businesses would follow. I think I can > >accurately quote her as saying 
>"You can't build an economy on retail > >jobs alone."> >> >Or, as Stu Scott 
>said at another recent economic forum (paraphrasing > >again), some 
>businesses re-circulate and slightly magnify the > >dollar. To truly grow 
>the economy you've got to manufacture > >something. (The same forum 
>mentioned something like $1.15 going into > >the economy for every $1 spent 
>at a local chain store. And, $1.25 > >going into the local economy for 
>every dollar spent at a locally > >owned merchant. I digress...)> >> >I can 
>agree with almost all of the above discussed at the forum. I > >would add 
>that Moscow has traditionally "manufactured" education and > >agriculture. 
>The UI and agriculture have been our biggest > >"factories." And, just as 
>BJ's model predicts, those high paying > >education and ag. "factories" 
>brought in what we currently have for > >a business climate.> >> >Now for 
>the part that I found interesting because of its absence:> >How is quality 
>of life defined?> >How does our local business climate fit into the quality 
>of life picture?> >> >The above, it seems to me, is the crux of our current 
>civic debate.> >> >So, how is quality of life defined?> >Ask a hundred 
>people and get a hundred different answers.> >> >The panelists listed as 
>quality of life indicators such things as: > >parks, walkability, little 
>traffic. Quality of life must have > >something else to it, too. If quality 
>of life is ONLY the items > >listed by the forum, then I humbly suggest 
>that Garfield and > >Oakesdale also fit the bill quite nicely to become 
>hotbeds of > >technological development.> >> >Hopefully you understand the 
>above was sarcasm.> >> >I believe there is another, as yet unmentioned, 
>aspect of quality of > >life. I submit that what makes Moscow's quality of 
>life so good is > >the great combination we have of parks, traffic, etc; 
>with our > >engaged citizenry, and good local economy.> >> >How does our 
>local business climate fit into the quality of life picture?> >In a lot of 
>ways, our existing businesses are what make our quality > >of life 
>possible:> >Businesses provide the jobs that allow people to live here.> 
> >Businesses pay taxes helping to make our parks and infrastructure > 
> >possible. (Incidentally, the businesses also make it possible for > >the 
>people that live here to pay taxes.)> >Businesses make it possible for us 
>to get our "necessities" locally.> >I'm sure others can come up with more 
>to add to the list.> >> >Smart businesses looking to locate here realize 
>they won't be > >operating in a vacuum. They look at ALL of our local 
>business and > >social environment before deciding to grow here. They look 
>from a > >business perspective at our city government, infrastructure, 
>parks, > >ecology, businesses already present, etc.> >> >Smart businesses 
>also look at a bigger picture beyond "bottom line" > >items. They look from 
>a social perspective to see if their > >employees will be happy living in 
>the community, again looking at > >our city government, infrastructure, 
>parks, ecology, businesses > >already present, etc. Both perspectives must 
>be promising for it to > >be a strong match.> >> >Moscow would be 
>unattractive to high wage paying employers if we did > >not already have a 
>strong mix of local businesses and retail stores.> >> >To put it simply, 
>prospective businesses are looking to grow their > >new "factories" on the 
>shoulders of what is already here.> >> >I strongly believe in working to 
>bring in high paying jobs. To do > >so we must be aware of what about our 
>existing structure is going to > >be an attractor, and we must work to keep 
>it healthy.> >> >Later,> >Darrell> >> >> >> R-> >> You missed the point.> 
> >> These high-tech jobs can go anywhere. All towns want them.> >> The 
>entrepreneurs can be choosy, and they are choosy. They want towns with> >> 
>a high quality of life.> >> If Moscow sacrifices its high quality of life 
>for (what you describe as)> >> "almost anything that will provide jobs, 
>increase the tax base and improve> >> the overall economy", then we lose 
>what now attracts these high-tech jobs.> >> You just can not have it both 
>ways.> >> I want to live in a town that maintains its high quality of life 
>and> >> therefore is attractive to high-tech jobs -- not a town that has 
>no> >> standards but goes for any growth.> >> BL> >> >> 
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