[Vision2020] fires

Fri Oct 26 15:52:28 PDT 2007

Here's a pretty nice take on the fire issue in California and Ketchum, Id.  Seems to make the point that a longer, warmer fire season allows the timber and foliage to start drying out earlier and stay dry for longer.  Other factors are mentioned, too.

(CBS) 60 Minutes:

Every year you can count on forest fires in the West like hurricanes in the East, but recently there has been an enormous change in Western fires. In truth, we've never seen anything like them in recorded history. It appears we're living in a new age of mega-fires -- forest infernos ten times bigger than the fires we're used to seeing. To find out why it's happening, 60 Minutes correspondent Scott Pelley went out on the fire line to see the burning of the American West. 
Last fire season was the worst in recorded history. This year is already a close second, with two months to go. More than eight million acres have burned this year already. The men and women facing the flames are elite federal firefighters called "Hotshots." Nationwide there are 92 hotshot crews of 20 members each. 60 Minutes found a group of New Mexico hotshots in the Salmon River Mountains of Idaho. They had set up camp in a burned out patch of forest with fire raging all around. They were hitting the day, exhausted, halfway through a 14-day shift. Leaving camp to scout out the situation, the firefighters anticipated a mess and they found it: the valley was engulfed in smoke. The flames blew through the firebreak lines they dug the day before. "We were trying to turn the corner yesterday, and that's when it kind of blew out. I think we got more ground over here that's been taken. Any questions?" a firefighter said. No question, this day the fire won. It surged across the mountain, forcing the hotshots to evacuate. All across the West, crews are playing defense, often pulling back to let acres burn, but standing firm to save communities. One stand this season came in August at Ketchum, Idaho. Forecasters said it was 99 percent certain Ketchum would be lost if nothing was done. Some 1,700 local, state, and federal firefighters came from across the nation, working around the clock from a mountainside camp. Residents were evacuated, as 300-foot flames headed for homes. 60 Minutes joined up with Tom Boatner, who after 30 years on the fire line, is now the chief of fire operations for the federal government. "A fire of this size and this intensity in this country would have been extremely rare 15, 20 years they're commonplace these days," Boatner says. "Ten years ago, if you had a 100,000 acre fire, you were talking about a huge fire. And if we had one or two of those a year, that was probably unusual. Now we talk about 200,000 acre fires like it's just another day at the office. It's been a huge change," he says. Asked what the biggest fires now are, Boatner says, "We’ve had, I believe, two fires this summer that have been over 500,000 acres, half a million acres, and one of those was over 600,000 acres." "You wouldn’t have expected to see this how recently?" Pelley asks. "We got records going back to 1960 of the acres burned in America. So, that's 47 fire seasons. Seven of the 10 busiest fire seasons have been since 1999," Boatner says. "You know what? It’s hotter than hell right here," Pelley remarks. "It's been pretty damn hot," Boatner says. "You can imagine the challenge for young men and women with hand tools like this to come up here and put out a fire like this, but there's thousands of people down there with multimillion dollar homes that are counting on them to do that."

It was 20 years ago that firefighters got their first glimpse of what was to come. In 1988, a third of Yellowstone National Park burned. Since then, fires have broken records in nine states. Several mega-fires, like one in Arizona, have burned over half a million acres each. Why are there more of these fires? Turns out the forest service is partly to blame with a policy it started 100 years ago. The policy was to put out all fires immediately. "Because we so successfully fought fire and eliminated fire from this ecosystem for a hundred years, because we thought that was the right thing to do, we’ve allowed a huge buildup of fuel in these woods. So now, when the fires get going, there’s a lot more to burn than historically you would’ve seen in a forest like this," Boatner explains. "Is it possible that we're gonna get to the point where we have these mega-fires and we just can't fight them because they're too large?" Pelley asks. "Well, we're there already. We have identified numerous fires this summer that we know we can't put out with the resources we have available. Because of the severity of the burning conditions and the size of the fires," Boatner explains. The severity of the burning and size of the fires caught the eye of Tom Swetnam, one of the world's leading fire ecologists. He wanted to know what's touched off this annual inferno and whether it's truly a historic change. At the University of Arizona, Swetnam keeps a remarkable woodpile, comprised of the largest collection of tree rings in the world. His rings go back 9,000 years, and each one of those rings captures one year of climate history. Swetnam found recent decades have been the hottest in 1,000 years. And recently, he and a team of top climate scientists discovered something else: a dramatic increase in fires high in the mountains, where fires were rare. "As the spring is arriving earlier because of warming conditions, the snow on these high mountain areas is melting and running off. So the logs and the branches and the tree needles all can dry out more quickly and have a longer time period to be dry. And so there's a longer time period and opportunity for fires to start," Swetnam says "The spring comes earlier, so the fire season is just longer," Pelley remarks. "That's right. The fire season in the last 15 years or so has increased more than two months over the whole Western U.S. So actually 78 days of average longer fire season in the last 15 years compared to the previous 15 or 20 years," Swetnam says. Swetnam says that climate change -- global warming -- has increased temperatures in the West about one degree and that has caused four times more fires. Swetnam and his colleagues published those findings in the journal "Science," and the world’s leading researchers on climate change have endorsed their conclusions. But what was news to the scientists is something Tom Boatner has noticed for about ten years now. "This kind of low brush would normally be really moist and actually be a fairly good barrier to fire. But as I look at this I just see wilted leaves everywhere. There's no moisture left in them. They're dead," he points out.(CBS) Professor Swetnam wanted to show 60 Minutes just how much has changed, so he brought Pelley to the top of Arizona's Mount Lemon. Two mega-fires there killed everything, even the Ponderosa Pines. "You know, I was always taught that Ponderosas were big, robust trees that were built to withstand fire," Pelley remarks. "And that when everything else burned off, the Ponderosas were still standing. But look at them." "The Ponderosas are able to withstand the low severity fires where you get flames of maybe one to two or three feet high. But now the behavior of these fires is off the scale," Swetnam says. Asked how much things have changed, Swetnam tells Pelley, "Well, we're seeing century-old forests that had never sustained these kinds of fires before, being razed to the ground." Back at the battle to save Ketchum, Idaho, the day shift was coming off, and the night shift going on. How long does it take to bring a fire like this under control? Says Tom Boatner, "This particular fire is about 45,000 acres and they’ve been working on it for about 11 or 12 days and they've got it about 50 percent contained and with any luck they will finish containing this fire in another five or six days something like that." Containing it meant fighting fire with fire. Using drip torches, they started a controlled burn around the town, creating a barrier, so that when the forest fire hit there'd be nothing left to burn. These pre-burns are risky though. Trees can torch suddenly and explosively, sending embers up to a mile away. By daybreak on the 18th day, the gamble had paid off. The blaze came within 100 feet of some homes, but not one home was lost. It will take years for this forest to recover, but Tom Swetnam told Pelley with these new super hot fires some forests may never grow back. "We used to have forest soil here that might have been this deep," he says, indicating about a foot of depth, "but now we're just down to rock." "So you're down to mineral and sort of a rock, sort of armored soil. And that is not a good habitat for trees to re-establish," Swetnam says. "Where do you think all this is headed?" Pelley asks, "As fires continue to burn, these mega-fires continue to burn, we may see ultimately a majority, maybe more than half of the forest land converting to other forest, other types of ecosystems," Swetnam says. "Wait a minute. Did you just say that there's a reasonable chance we could lose half of the forests in the West?" Pelley asks. "Yes, within some decades to a century, as warming continues, and we continue to get large scale fires," Swetnam replies. Swetnam says that this is what we have to look forward to. He estimates, in the Southwest alone, nearly two million acres of forest are gone and won't come back for centuries. The hotshots are already planning for the next fire season. In 2006, the feds spent $2 billion on fire fighting, seven times more than just ten years ago. "You know, there are a lot of people who don't believe in climate change," Pelley remarks. "You won't find them on the fire line in the American West anymore," Tom Boatner says. "'Cause we've had climate change beat into us over the last ten or fifteen years. We know what we’re seeing, and we're dealing with a period of climate, in terms of temperature and humidity and drought that's different than anything people have seen in our lifetimes."> From: vision2020-request at moscow.com> Subject: Vision2020 Digest, Vol 16, Issue 331> To: vision2020 at moscow.com> Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2007 15:30:43 -0700> > Send Vision2020 mailing list submissions to> vision2020 at moscow.com> > To subscribe or unsubscribe via the World Wide Web, visit> http://mailman.fsr.com/mailman/listinfo/vision2020> or, via email, send a message with subject or body 'help' to> vision2020-request at moscow.com> > You can reach the person managing the list at> vision2020-owner at moscow.com> > When replying, please edit your Subject line so it is more specific> than "Re: Contents of Vision2020 digest..."> > > Today's Topics:> > 1. Re: Fw: Re: Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity> (Glenn Schwaller)> 2. Re: More GMA PAC Financial Disclosure Report (Mark Solomon)> 3. Re: real economic development in Moscow (Mark Solomon)> > > ----------------------------------------------------------------------> > Message: 1> Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2007 15:19:25 -0700> From: "Glenn Schwaller" <vpschwaller at gmail.com>> Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Fw: Re: Western U.S. Forest Wildfire> Activity> To: vision2020 at moscow.com> Message-ID:> <323338460710261519lae3e6c9v3ab1ab3e9f64a3d9 at mail.gmail.com>> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"> > It has EVERYTHING to do with whacko environmentalists and the radical> policies implemented by the Clinton administration, which brought an abrupt> and unfortunate end to rational forest and brush management techniques.> > Only a few short years ago these enviro-freaks successfully passed laws> prohibiting SoCal residents from clearing brush near their homes because of> an "endangered" kangaroo rat and the spotted mesquite weevil. Do you think> that had controlled burns and brush clearing be allowed, these catastrophic> fires could have been avoided, or at least lessened in their intensity, thus> preserving homes, (as well as the legally-privileged weevils and rats, who> by the way lost their lives and homes as well . . )> > As far as any "global warming" connection to the fires, I would think if> there was any influence at all it would be to REDUCE the incidence of brush> fires. Global warming would create a more hot and arid climate with reduced> rainfall, hence reduced growth of brush to fuel the fires, hence less fire.> So what ya need is a long term drought to cut down on the amount of brush to> burn.> > GS> > > > > > > On 10/26/07, Sunil Ramalingam <sunilramalingam at hotmail.com> wrote:> >> > Roger,> >> > I don't disagree that there's a lot of underbrush in lots of national> > forests, along with a lot of skinny trees that will never get big, that> > are> > great fuel for fires. This has little if anything to do with the actions> > of> > environmentalists. This is from a century of putting out fires when> > they're> > small, and a lot of that had to do with preserving timber. Firefighting> > has> > been in transition away from that practice for a while now, but there's> > plenty of brush out there.> >> > I disagree that it's the USFS policy to not clear out brush. Prescription> > fires are lit to clear out brush, and a lot of those take place every> > spring> > and fall.> >> > This is a separate issue from the SoCal fires. The vegetation in these> > areas is primarily brush, not timber.> >> > I think you're making blanket statements about environmentalists> > here. Some> > don't want any intervention, some agree there should be some intervention.> > Those saying there should be no intervention aren't making any of the> > policies currently in place. I consider myself an environmentalist, but I> > don't think we should let all fires burn freely. At the same time, even> > though I fought wildland fires for ten summers, I don't think we should be> > putting them all out either. I certainly think anyone living out in the> > urban-rural interface should be clearing out the brush around their> > property.> >> > Sunil> >> >> > >From: lfalen <lfalen at turbonet.com>> > >Reply-To: lfalen <lfalen at turbonet.com>> > >To: vision2020 at moscow.com> > >Subject: [Vision2020] Fw: Re: Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity> > >Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2007 11:08:02 -0700> > >> > >Sunil> > >There seems to be a problem with "reply all" for this email so I am> > >forwarding it instead.> > >> > >The underbrush problem is a general one. Not clearing out underbrush is> > >part of the Forest Service's policy. It has been well documented that at> > >least some vocal environmentalist do not want any intervention by man or> > >management of the forests. This includes thinning out underbrush or> > insect> > >control. Dead trees due to insect infestation adds to the fire hazard> > >provided by underbrush. They are partly right in that before man's> > >involvement ther were small fires that cleared the underbrush which> > >prevented a hotter fire from wiping out the entire forest. Not all> > >environmentalist or forest managers see it this way. There is legislation> > >being proposed at the state and national level to change this policy.> > >Roger> > >-----Original message-----> > >> > >From: "Sunil Ramalingam" sunilramalingam at hotmail.com> > >Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2007 22:05:05 -0700> > >To:> > >Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity> > >> > >Roger, what is the basis of your statement:> > >> > >'The extent of the fires we exacerbated by the dense underbrush that> > >resulltd from environmetalist not allowing it to be cleared out,'> > >> > >and which fires are you talking about?> > >> > >Sunil> > >> > >> > >> > >> >> >> > =======================================================> > List services made available by First Step Internet,> > serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.> > http://www.fsr.net> > mailto:Vision2020 at moscow.com> > =======================================================> >> -------------- next part --------------> An HTML attachment was scrubbed...> URL: http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/attachments/20071026/d060e7f4/attachment-0001.html > > ------------------------------> > Message: 2> Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2007 15:24:06 -0700> From: Mark Solomon <msolomon at moscow.com>> Subject: Re: [Vision2020] More GMA PAC Financial Disclosure Report> To: "Bill London" <london at moscow.com>, "v2020" <vision2020 at moscow.com>> Message-ID: <a0623099fc348188a44cc@[192.168.0.100]>> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" ; format="flowed"> > Thanks for the link.. As I'm always interested in who is contributing > big $$ in elections, I looked it up and saw Palouse Rentals and > Construction had donated $1000 to GMA. Maybe I'm just out of the > loop, but I did not know that name. A quick search on the Sec'y of > State website gives up John Ficca as the president of the > corporation, which, by the way, has been administratively dissolved > by the Sec'y of State for failure to file annual reports since 2004.> > m.> > At 2:39 PM -0700 10/26/07, Bill London wrote:> >The political action committee of the Greater Moscow Alliance is > >raising big money to buy the Moscow City Council election.> >According to their latest financial report (see below for the report > >dated October 25), the GMA committee raised $12,800 and has already > >spent $8,700 on this election. They had a $1700 print bill, so > >they've got a direct mail card to send to all of us. BL> >> >> >Financial Disclosure Report dated October 5, 2007> >http://www.MoscowCares.com/GMA_Disclosure.htm> >> >Financial Disclosure Report dated October 25, 2007> >http://www.moscowcares.com/GMA_Disclosure_102507.htm> > > > ------------------------------> > Message: 3> Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2007 15:30:05 -0700> From: Mark Solomon <msolomon at moscow.com>> Subject: Re: [Vision2020] real economic development in Moscow> To: "Darrell Keim" <keim153 at gmail.com>, "Bruce and Jean Livingston"> <jeanlivingston at turbonet.com>> Cc: moscow vision 2020 <vision2020 at moscow.com>> Message-ID: <a062309a0c34819de949e@[192.168.0.100]>> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"> > Darrell,> > The perverted irony of the situation is overwhelming: the > anti-business talk comes completely from certain business people who > disagreed with the outcome of the last city election and the Thompson > rezone denial which they carried to Boise as part of the Chamber > tour. Their attempt to paint Moscow black has succeeded beyond their > wildest dreams. Why they would want to do that is beyond me, but they > have. It wasn't even on the radar screen before then.> > m.> > At 3:03 PM -0700 10/26/07, Darrell Keim wrote:> >Bruce,> >Responses below:> >> >> >On 10/25/07, Bruce and Jean Livingston > ><<mailto:jeanlivingston at turbonet.com>jeanlivingston at turbonet.com> > >wrote:> >> >Darrell, good to hear from you again.> >> >I don't think I disagree with you on any point in this post. And I > >don't see any point you make as inconsistent with my personal > >feelings about the best future direction of the city.> >> >> >I really wasn't seeking to be inflammatory with the post, more > >informational. A lot of people don't consider the business > >environment and its impact on our town when they talk quality of > >life.> >> >> >I recognize the existence here of a healthy retail economy and a > >vibrant downtown, and I acknowledge that they contribute to our > >quality of life. Are you suggesting that either our local retail or > >business climate is not healthy? If so, what is unhealthy and how > >would you propose to make things healthier?> >> >> >I've talked to alot of people about this of late, and got a lot of > >opinions. One of the goals I've set for myself as the new Chamber > >E.D. is to meet with several of our member businesses each week. I > >ask them a variety of questions, and always include this one: "What > >do you think is the biggest issue facing Moscow business?" Over > >half have told me they think it is the cities anti-business > >reputation, be it real or simply perceived.> >> >Even if the reputation is simply something perceived, with no basis > >in reality, it is an impediment to business that we need to be > >concerned about.> >> >> >> >Bruce> >> >----- Original Message -----> >From: <mailto:keim153 at gmail.com>Darrell Keim> >To: <mailto:thansen at moscow.com>Tom Hansen> >Cc: <mailto:idahotom at hotmail.com>Tom Hansen ; > ><mailto:vision2020 at moscow.com> v2020> >Sent: Thursday, October 25, 2007 2:22 PM> >Subject: Re: [Vision2020] real economic development in Moscow> >> >> >Bill et al:> >> >I was at the MCA's recent economic forum. I found it to be very > >interesting in both what was addressed, and what wasn't. I felt the > >panelists did a fair job of describing what aspects of Moscow drew > >them to locate here. Nice parks, short/no commute, culture, > >universities, etc. If pushed, I think the panelists would summarize > >what brought them as quality of life. Also mentioned as reasons for > >coming to Moscow were Alturas and the Small Business Incubator.> >> >I liked what BJ Swanson had to say about the importance of bringing > >in higher paying jobs (The example in her case being tech. jobs. > >Other types of high paying jobs create the same phenomenon). > >Essentially, she advocated for working to bring in higher paying > >jobs, and that retail businesses would follow. I think I can > >accurately quote her as saying "You can't build an economy on retail > >jobs alone."> >> >Or, as Stu Scott said at another recent economic forum (paraphrasing > >again), some businesses re-circulate and slightly magnify the > >dollar. To truly grow the economy you've got to manufacture > >something. (The same forum mentioned something like $1.15 going into > >the economy for every $1 spent at a local chain store. And, $1.25 > >going into the local economy for every dollar spent at a locally > >owned merchant. I digress...)> >> >I can agree with almost all of the above discussed at the forum. I > >would add that Moscow has traditionally "manufactured" education and > >agriculture. The UI and agriculture have been our biggest > >"factories." And, just as BJ's model predicts, those high paying > >education and ag. "factories" brought in what we currently have for > >a business climate.> >> >Now for the part that I found interesting because of its absence:> >How is quality of life defined?> >How does our local business climate fit into the quality of life picture?> >> >The above, it seems to me, is the crux of our current civic debate.> >> >So, how is quality of life defined?> >Ask a hundred people and get a hundred different answers.> >> >The panelists listed as quality of life indicators such things as: > >parks, walkability, little traffic. Quality of life must have > >something else to it, too. If quality of life is ONLY the items > >listed by the forum, then I humbly suggest that Garfield and > >Oakesdale also fit the bill quite nicely to become hotbeds of > >technological development.> >> >Hopefully you understand the above was sarcasm.> >> >I believe there is another, as yet unmentioned, aspect of quality of > >life. I submit that what makes Moscow's quality of life so good is > >the great combination we have of parks, traffic, etc; with our > >engaged citizenry, and good local economy.> >> >How does our local business climate fit into the quality of life picture?> >In a lot of ways, our existing businesses are what make our quality > >of life possible:> >Businesses provide the jobs that allow people to live here.> >Businesses pay taxes helping to make our parks and infrastructure > >possible. (Incidentally, the businesses also make it possible for > >the people that live here to pay taxes.)> >Businesses make it possible for us to get our "necessities" locally.> >I'm sure others can come up with more to add to the list.> >> >Smart businesses looking to locate here realize they won't be > >operating in a vacuum. They look at ALL of our local business and > >social environment before deciding to grow here. They look from a > >business perspective at our city government, infrastructure, parks, > >ecology, businesses already present, etc.> >> >Smart businesses also look at a bigger picture beyond "bottom line" > >items. They look from a social perspective to see if their > >employees will be happy living in the community, again looking at > >our city government, infrastructure, parks, ecology, businesses > >already present, etc. Both perspectives must be promising for it to > >be a strong match.> >> >Moscow would be unattractive to high wage paying employers if we did > >not already have a strong mix of local businesses and retail stores.> >> >To put it simply, prospective businesses are looking to grow their > >new "factories" on the shoulders of what is already here.> >> >I strongly believe in working to bring in high paying jobs. To do > >so we must be aware of what about our existing structure is going to > >be an attractor, and we must work to keep it healthy.> >> >Later,> >Darrell> >> >> >> R-> >> You missed the point.> >> These high-tech jobs can go anywhere. All towns want them.> >> The entrepreneurs can be choosy, and they are choosy. They want towns with> >> a high quality of life.> >> If Moscow sacrifices its high quality of life for (what you describe as)> >> "almost anything that will provide jobs, increase the tax base and improve> >> the overall economy", then we lose what now attracts these high-tech jobs.> >> You just can not have it both ways.> >> I want to live in a town that maintains its high quality of life and> >> therefore is attractive to high-tech jobs -- not a town that has no> >> standards but goes for any growth.> >> BL> >> >> >=======================================================> > List services made available by First Step Internet,> > serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994. > > <http://www.fsr.net/> http://www.fsr.net > > mailto:<mailto:Vision2020 at moscow.com>Vision2020 at moscow.com> >=======================================================> >> >> >=======================================================> > List services made available by First Step Internet,> > serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.> > <http://www.fsr.net/> http://www.fsr.net> > mailto:<mailto:Vision2020 at moscow.com>Vision2020 at moscow.com> >=======================================================> -------------- next part --------------> An HTML attachment was scrubbed...> URL: http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/attachments/20071026/746eb697/attachment.html > > ------------------------------> > =======================================================> List services made available by First Step Internet, > serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994. > http://www.fsr.net > mailto:Vision2020 at moscow.com> =======================================================> > End of Vision2020 Digest, Vol 16, Issue 331> *******************************************
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