[Vision2020] Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity

[Ted Moffett]

All-

A report has been issued that at least one of the recent Southern California
fires has been "confirmed" to be arson.

Of course this has nothing to do with the validity of the Science magazine
article on Western USA forest fires and climate change (note the article
avoids making claims about the causes of climate change, but does discuss
CO2 sequestration related to forests and forest fires, and greenhouse
gases).  Nor does it change the fact that the Southern California fires were
exacerbated by record drought (worst in 130 years) and intense Santa Anna
winds, with hurricane force gusts.

Ted Moffett

On 10/25/07, Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com> wrote:

> Roger et. al.
>
>
> http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Western_US_States_Swelter_Under_Record_Heatwave_999.html
>
> http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2838.htm
>
> http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940
>
> The Southern California area was facing the most extreme drought in 130
> years.  And had experienced record setting heat waves during 2007.  I
> presented the facts.  These factors increased the magnitude of these fires,
> do to increased drying of tinder.  Southern California was experiencing well
> above normal high temperatures while the fires were burning.
>
> As to whether the fires in Southern California are arson, none of the
> fires yet have been conclusively determined to be arson, as far as I have
> determined.  Some already were determined to be accidentally caused by
> humans.  Human caused fires happens every fire season, by arson or accident.
>
>
> Another major factor increasing the magnitude of these fires was the
> extreme Santa Anna winds...Again, an extreme weather event.  They were
> getting hurricane force gusts, upper 70s, 80, 90 mph., creating a blow torch
> effect and blowing embers long distances to spread the fire.  To prevent
> these conditions from spreading the fire long distances by more clearing of
> brush etc. is doubtful.  However, anywhere people have homes with flammable
> vegetation nearby, of course this is a risk.  Look at Moscow Mountain.
>
> The Science magazine article on Western US fire activity presents well
> documented data about the earlier arrival of Spring, earlier snow pack melt,
> coupled with higher temperatures, increasing the length of fire season and
> the magnitude of fires, since 1987, in the Western USA.
>
> The authors make it quite clear that this increase is not explained by
> human land use variables.  Maybe the forests could have been managed better
> (more clearing of underbrush) to reduce fire danger, but with earlier start
> of Spring, earlier snow pack melt, and higher temperatures, the forests dry
> out sooner and more, and this increases the duration of the fire season and
> the risk of fires of greater magnitude.
>
> Ted Moffett
>
>
> On 10/25/07, lfalen <lfalen at turbonet.com> wrote:
> >
> > Ted
> > Whether published in "Science" or not there are a few things missing. I
> > think that 1934 was hoitter than it is now. Wheather it was dryer or not I
> > don't know. These fire were predominatly the result of arson. The extent of
> > the fires we exacerbated by the dense underbrush that resulltd from
> > environmetalist not allowing it to be cleared out.
> > Roger
> >
>
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