[Vision2020] Schwaller whiffs again

[Glenn Schwaller]

Mr Herodotus,

Let me begin by addressing your last comments first, since I suspect
most people are going to say "OH  @&*$#!!  Not more of this?!?"  and
stop reading

"Back to my original question that you refuse to answer: First, by
what standard do you attribute "some modicum of sincerity" to an
apology delivered by the psychopath Sitler?

Having worked for several months with Mr Sitler and other sex
offenders in our area, I felt he was grasping, through his previous
and ongoing treatment, the fact he was lacking in conscience and in
feelings for others, that is poor impulse control and manipulative
behavior allowed him to take what he wanted and do as he pleased.  I
believe a true psychopath feels he is doing no wrong, much like you
and I feel going to the grocery store is not wrong.  I someone tells
you "Hey - you can't go to the grocery store.  That's wrong!"  you're
not going to believe them, much less apologize for it.  It's only
through individual and group therapy and treatment that one begins to
"unlearn" previous behaviors and perceived truths, and begin to learn
what is morally and ethically correct and acceptable.  I simply feel
Mr Sitler is starting to "get it", is beginning to feel apologetic
about his actions, and hence his modicum (small or token) sincerity in
any apology.  Maybe he just feels sorry for getting caught.  And I'm
sure he does, but I believe it is slowly sinking in that he is sorry
for his actions.  But I'm still not going to trust him with MY kids
nor anyone elses.

"and by what standard do you ask Messieurs Fox and Hansen to apologize?"

  I guess the standard would be that I don't believe there to be any
justification by anyone at anytime to, as you say "suggest putting his
family at risk with the hope of teaching him a lesson."  I find that
to be as evil and morally reprehensible as anything Mr Sitler has done

Well I admit picking on poor Ms Opyr was a bit of a cheap shot - but I
suppose I thought we were entitled to at least one on this venue.  I
guess what caught my eye was a blanket three-quarters recidivism rate.
 And I'm not sure where that number came from, but I don't know that
it matters all that much.

My point was, I don't believe it is possible to give you a definitive
answer.  Be it sex offenders in general or pedophiles in specific, the
numbers are all over the place.  You came up with a number:
"pedophiles who molest boys . . . were. . . the most likely to
recidivate at (a) rate of 52%"   But I point out in that same article
a study cites "no statistical difference in recidivism rates between
offenders who were subjected to notification in Washington (19%) and
those who were not (22%)."

I don't know how many boys Mr Sitler abused; I do know that one victim
was a girl.  So in Mr sitler's case, I don't know if 52% (or 19% or
22%) holds or not.  I'm not trying to be "cute" - I'm trying to point
out, yet again to you, that there is no one number for me to give.
Apparently there is no one number for ANYONE to give.

I believe you neglected to mention the part BEFORE the 52% rate
(Research studies by the US Department of Justice and the Canadian
Government have found that sexual offense recidivism rates are much
lower than commonly believed).  Now granted the article states "sexual
offense" rather than "pedophile" but specific terminology seems to be
applied in a somewhat loose manner.  The article also states AFTER the
statistic you quote "those who comply with probation and treatment
have lower reoffense rates that (sic) those who violate the conditions
of their release."  So again it appears these authors are not even
sure of the 52% rate.  So let me state it to you once again:  I don't
believe there is one number for me to give.

I don't know anything about the Association for the Treatment of
Sexual Abusers (ATSA), the site from which you obtained that number,
but I found it to be an informative article.  I believe it to be much
more credible than a couple of the other "references" you cite
(Pyschology Diagnosis Dictionary and the Encyclopedia of Mind
Disorders).  I would suggest everyone give the ATSA article a read.
(www.atsa.com/ppOffenderFacts.html).  Particularly in light of the
fact there are many nuggets of information you seem to have deemed not
relevant:

"Some research indicates that sex offenders who successfully complete
a treatment program reoffend less often than those who do not
demonstrate that they "got it"  (Marques, Miederanders, Dany, Nelson
and van Ommeren, in Sexual Abuse, A Journal of Research and Treatment
2005"

I believe this was one of the reasons Mr Sitler received the jail time
he got, rather than the prison sentence:  He would have been eligible
for parole in 5 years, but have received no treatment during his
incarceration.

Also, even though you didn't specifically bring it up, many others
have questioned how can Mr Sitler live is such close proximity to
schools, parks, shopping malls.   And some went, as you so elegantly
put, "positively bananas" over the notification lag in time for Mr
Sitler's registry.  This was apparently also the case for Mr Wilson's
lack of community notification as well.  Let me state for the record,
despite the arguments the ATSA article makes, I am a proponent of
notification.  I am a proponent of restrictions on where offenders may
live.  I am NOT defending how Mr Wilson's handled the matter,  I'm
simply pointing out that there is evidence (in the very article YOU,
Mr Herodotus, quote from, and called to, MY attention) to suggest his
position was not unreasonable:

"There is no evidence that community notification reduces sex offense
recidivism or increases community safety"

"63% of the new sex offenses occurred in the jurisdiction where
notification took place, suggesting that notification did not deter
offenders or motivate them to venture outside their jurisdictions
(where they would be less likely identified) to commit crimes.    . .
. community notification appeared to have little effect on sex offense
recidivism."

"Notification may, ironically, interfere with its stated goal of
enhancing public safety by exacerbating the stressors  . . . that my
trigger some sex offenders to relapse."

"There is no research to support the idea that residence restrictions
prevent repeat sex crimes."

"In Minnesota, sex offenders' proximity to schools or parks was not a
factor in recidivism, nor did it impact community safety.  In fact the
opposite was found to be true".

Again, I find these statements hard to believe, and I do NOT subscribe
to these ideas.  Yet someone is going to scan this post and again
accuse me of siding with (or even BEING) Doug Wilson, Steven Sitler,
Christ Church, Bill Thompson, the anti-Christ, and the list goes on.
Ah well, the messenger always gets shot.

Mr Herodotus states "Second, I asked, "Can you please share with us
the average number of children that repeat offenders violate before
their discovery?" However, you answered a question that that nobody
asked."

Well I did answer it - I gave you some concrete  examples of specific
repeat violators and the numbers were from 1 to 125.   I'm sorry if
you didn't like the answer.  But again my point is there is no one
number for me.

You go on to state "So once again, I refer you to the correct answer
as cited from the aforementioned blog:   "It is also important to
recognize that official recidivism statistics are  always lower than
actual re-offense rates, because some sex offenders commit  many sex
crimes that go unreported and undetected. . . . Offenders who seek out
children to victimize by placing themselves in positions of trust,
authority, and easy access to youngsters can have hundreds of victims
over  the course of their lifetimes."

So the answer is "some can have hundreds of victims"??  Well I think I
agreed with that in my original repsonse.  Some very well may have
hundreds of victims - others very well may not.

Thirdly, Mr Herodotus you asked, "Can you please describe for us a
worst-case scenario for the children of Moscow (number of victims, age
of victims, types of abuse, etc.), if Mr. Sitler resumes his pattern
of serial predation?"

Well yes I felt there was some sarcasm there since how can I, you, or
anyone POSSIBLY know the number and age of potential victims, type of
abuse, etc.  I tried to make this point even more succinct by pointing
out that not even a serial pedophile can tell you the number and age
of potential future victims.

Not to be nit-picky but hey . . .  "Mr. Sitler will re-offend, and
when he does . . ."

Let me refer you to the ATSA article you have cited:

". . .we cannot predict with certainty that any particular offender
will act in a specific way . . ."

I guess you seem to find it reasonable to depart from your own sources
when it suits you eh?

But to address the specific issue to which that snippet refers, Mr
Sitler (and all sex offenders in treatment programs in our area)
undergo risk assessment - what is the likelihood that a sex offender
will commit a new sex crime in the future.  "Risk assessment allows us
to identify the most dangerous sex offenders, and apply the most
intensive interventions to those who need the greatest level of
supervision, treatment, and restriction."  How effective is the
treatment program and risk assessment evaluation available in our
area?  I don't know.  I would suggest you call the treatment center
and/or probation and parole and ask specific questions - let them know
you are a concerned citizen.  Talk to the politicians representing
you.  This bantering back and forth on this site I fear does nothing
to help.

You seem to have answered your 3rd question as best as I or anyone could:

"no one will ever know how many innocents he will have raped nor how
many times he will have raped them . . ."

Which is pretty much what I said - no one can give you a definite
answer.   I can only say that, again citing the ATSA article you
provided, "the vast majority of sexually abused children (80-90%) are
molested by family members and close friends or acquaintances"  which
I think was proven out in Mr Sitler's case.  So, to try to reduce
potential future abuse from Mr Sitler, if you are a family member,
close friend or acquaintance of him, keep your children away from him.
 And make sure your friends, family, and acquaintances know who he is
and why he is so dangerous.

Schwaller





On 5/29/07, Bob Herodotus <bherodotus at yahoo.com> wrote:
> Dear Mr. Schwaller,
>
>
> I am not Joan Opyr but your reference to her is a red flag that moves me to
> warn you not to read her stuff anymore, for fear that you may lapse into
> another "I am not Doug Wilson, I just act like him" fit of rage. I say this
> because Doug Wilson went positively bananas last year after Joan Opyr wrote
> a piece that covered the larger story of the Kirk's molesters. Wilson could
> not challenge the integrity of the author or her article, so he resorted to
> nit-picking tomato-tomahta items to leave the false impression that she got
> it wrong. And once again the great man of God used the victims as his
> pretext to try to silence her and CONTROL THE CONVERSATION, which only
> proved that at Christ Church, the sheep give their lives for the shepherd.
> But my point is that if you avoid Ms. Opyr, you will probably avoid another
> "I am not Doug Wilson, I just act like him" tantrum, at least to the extent
> that she triggers them.
>
>
>
> Moving along, I must note that you whiffed again in response to my
> questions. So, let's take it from the top.
>
>
>
> First, I asked, "Can you please tell us the recidivism rate for serial
> pedophiles?" But you stacked your answer with piles of statistics addressing
> the recidivism rate for "sex-offenders," not "serial pedophiles," which is a
> subset of the "sex offender" category. More to point, it is a subset with
> specific statistics that make it more difficult to give dishonest answers,
> such as yours.
>
>
>
> You will recall that I told you about the blogger who originally notified
> the community about this unfortunate providence visited upon the Kirk and
> Pastor Wilson's lunatic response to the blogger. Well, last year the blogger
> posted some statistics that answer the question you avoided:
>
>
>
> "Also, men who prefer boys are approximately twice as likely to reoffend as
> those who prefer girls (Morrison, 1995)."
> http://www.psychologytoday.com/conditions/pedophilia.html
>
>
>
> "Pedophiles, especially those who molest boys, or both boys and girls, are
> the sex offenders who have the highest recidivism (relapse) rates after
> incarceration and/or treatment."
> http://www.atsa.com/ppPedophiles.html
>
>
>
> "The younger the prisoner when released, the higher the rate of recidivism.
> For example, of all the sex offenders under age 25 at the time of discharge
> from prison, 59.8% were rearrested for some type of crime within 3 years, or
> more than double the 23.5% of those age 45 or older."
> http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/ascii/rsorp94.txt
>
>
>
> "In addition, the rate of recidivism for persons with a pedophilic
> preference for males is approximately twice that of pedophiles who prefer
> females. . . . The prognosis of successfully ending pedophilic habits among
> persons who practice pedophilia is not favorable. Pedophiles have a high
> rate of recidivism; that is, they tend to repeat their acts often over
> time."
> http://www.minddisorders.com/Ob-Ps/Pedophilia.html
>
>
>
> "Studies that have tracked sex offenders over longer follow-up periods have
> found that pedophiles who molest boys, and rapists of adult women, were the
> types of offenders most likely to recidivate at rates of 52% and 39%
> respectively. . . . One study found that the average number of victims for
> non-incestuous pedophiles who molest girls is 20; for pedophiles who prefer
> boys, over 100. . . . Predatory pedophiles, especially those who molest
> boys, are the sex offenders who have the highest recidivism rates. Over long
> follow-up periods, more than half of convicted pedophiles are rearrested for
> a new offense."
> http://www.atsa.com/ppOffenderFacts.html
>
>
>
>
>
> Therefore, Mr. Schwaller, you and your cheerleader Doug Farris may think
> "somewhere between 5 and 95 percent" a cute response, but it is not honest
> and it is not funny.
>
>
> Second, I asked, "Can you please share with us the average number of
> children that repeat offenders violate before their discovery?" However, you
> answered a question that that nobody asked. So once again, I refer you to
> the correct answer as cited from the aforementioned blog:
>
>
>
> "It is also important to recognize that official recidivism statistics are
> always lower than actual re-offense rates, because some sex offenders commit
> many sex crimes that go unreported and undetected. . . . Offenders who seek
> out children to victimize by placing themselves in positions of trust,
> authority, and easy access to youngsters can have hundreds of victims over
> the course of their lifetimes."
> http://www.atsa.com/ppOffenderFacts..html
>
>
>
>
>
> This was the point of my question that you somehow missed. And while you and
> your pom-pom boy may get a kick out of "somewhere between 1 and more than
> 125," I wonder if you really care about the "1" much less the "more than
> 125." What if that "1" was yours, Mr. Schwaller; what if his parents named
> him Gabriel; would that remove your trite attitude? That was the point of
> Messieurs Fox and Hansen when they made their tasteless, albeit on-point,
> proposal about Pastor Wilson's grandchildren. They understand that Douglas
> Wilson doesn't care about any of the victims in this tragedy; hence they
> suggested putting his family at risk with the hope of teaching him a lesson.
> However, both men assume that Wilson cares more for his children than for
> others, which assumes too much. Remember, Douglas Wilson doesn't care about
> anyone but himself because IT'S ALL ABOUT DOUG.
>
>
> Third, I asked, "Can you please describe for us a worst-case scenario for
> the children of Moscow (number of victims, age of victims, types of abuse,
> etc.), if Mr. Sitler resumes his pattern of serial predation?" And what you
> called "an undercurrent of sarcasm" I call "reality," because this is the
> reality of the situation. Mr. Sitler will re-offend, and when he does,
> innocent children will suffer. However, when and if someone catches him, no
> one will ever know how many innocents he will have raped nor how many times
> he will have raped them, which leads us back to my original question that
> you refuse to answer: First, by what standard do you attribute "some modicum
> of sincerity" to an apology delivered by the psychopath Sitler? and by what
> standard do you ask Messieurs Fox and Hansen to apologize?
>
>
> Herodotus
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message ----
>
> From: Glenn Schwaller <vpschwaller at gmail.com></vpschwaller at gmail.com>
>
> To: Bob Herodotus <bherodotus at yahoo.com></bherodotus at yahoo.com>;
> vision2020 at moscow.com
>
> Sent: Monday, May 28, 2007 2:18:47 PM
>
> Subject: Re: [Vision2020] A personal invitation to Mr. Schwaller
>
>
>
> Visionaries and Mr Herodotus,
>
>
>
> Thank you for the invitation to "return" but I never really left. I was
> simply a bit busy over the past few days taking advantage of the weather
> break to plant the begonias, nasturtiums, and geraniums.
>
>
>
> I'll attempt to answer your questions, but I do so assuming you are being
> genuine and not disingenuous in your query. I mention this only because
> another visionary has questioned "the truth about (your) opinions", that
> this individual "Doesn't believe I'll do that" (accept the truth of my
> opinions), "thank you very much.", then proceeds to demand the answer to 3
> additional questions.
>
>
>
> So, on to your questions. These are important, timely questions that deserve
> answers. However, I don't believe I can give you full nor adequate answers
> to any of them. I don't know that definitive answers exist, however one can
> find just about any answer one wants to fit one's position. That being said:
>
>
>
> "1. Can you please tell us the recidivism rate for serial pedophiles?"
>
>
>
> I don't believe a thorough statistical study has been done for over 10
> years. So keeping that in mind, according to the U.S. Department of Justice
> Bureau of Justice Statistics, within 3 years of release from incarceration,
> a little more than 5 percent of sex offenders were rearrested for another
> sex crime. If one looks at ALL crimes committed, about 40 percent of sex
> offenders were rearrested for other offenses.
>
>
>
> Within this three year period, 3.5 percent of convicted sex offenders were
> convicted again for a sex crime, 24 percent convicted for new crimes, and
> about 40 percent are imprisoned again because of a parole or probation
> violation.
>
>
>
> However, if you're Joan Opyr, in an article she published not quite a year
> ago, she quotes a 75% recidivism rate.
>
>
>
> The USDJ study also looked at the relationship between offenders and victims
> and reported that overall, 46 percent of the victims were a family member. A
> 2005 study by the National Crime Victimization Survey reports that 73
> percent of sexual assaults were known by the victim: 38 percent were a
> friend or acquaintance, 28 percent were involved in an "intimate"
> relationship, and 7 percent were another relative.
>
>
>
> An NPR story in 2005 offered a 98 percent recidivism rate over a 25 year
> period, with a 60 percent likelihood of offending again within 5 years under
> the best treatment available., there is a 60% occurrence of re-offence
> within five years. The story also mentions that the offender in most sexual
> abuse cases is a family member or friend of the family (97 percent for
> victims under the age of 6, and 95 percent of those between the ages 6 and
> 12).
>
>
>
> So, somewhere between 5 and 95 percent?
>
>
>
> "2. Can you please share with us the average number of children that repeat
> offenders violate before their discovery?"
>
>
>
> Again, I have no concrete statistics. There is apparently some information
> on Mr Sitler's repeated violations before he was discovered (I'm sure Mr
> Hansen can give you that number off the top of his head). The numbers seem
> to run from one to dozens over decades for catholic priests. And in
> Portugal, a driver and gardener was accused of molesting children at the
> school where he was worked. After questioning and examining more than 600
> children, over 125 were reported to have been victimized by this individual.
>
>
>
> So, somewhere between 1 and more than 125?
>
>
>
> "3, Can you please describe for us a worst-case scenario for the children of
> Moscow (number of victims, age of victims, types of abuse, etc.), if Mr.
> Sitler resumes his pattern of serial predation?"
>
>
>
> Quite frankly, I sense an undercurrent of sarcasm in this last question, but
> hey . . .
>
>
>
> Maybe you can ask me how many polar bears, perched on their ever-diminishing
> slab of ice, are going to starve tonight?
>
>
>
> Well, obviously I can't give you the answers you would like to hear. I doubt
> even Mr Sitler himself would know, given the worst possible case, what would
> be the answers to those questions. However, if you refer back to the replies
> to Question 1, you may find some answers of sorts in there.
>
>
>
> I'd like to think I have the community's, but perhaps not that of starving
> polar bear's, interests at heart.
>
>
>
> Schwaller
>
>
>
> "You can always see it commin', but you can never stop it."
>
>   --Michael Timmins
>
>
>
> On 5/28/07, Bob Herodotus
> <bherodotus at yahoo.com></bherodotus at yahoo.com>wrote:
>
>
>
> Visionaries and Mr. Schwaller,
>
>
>
> I personally invite Mr. Schwaller to return to this forum because I for one
> found his posts both provocative and enlightening. Hard facts about serial
> pedophiles are difficult to ascertain and I commend him for sharing his
> knowledge of this unseemly subject with us so that we as a community can be
> better prepared to address a predator in our midst.
>
>
>
> With this in mind, I have a couple of questions for Mr. Schwaller.
>
>
>
> 1. Can you please tell us the recidivism rate for serial pedophiles?
>
>
>
> 2. Can you please share with us the average number of children that repeat
> offenders violate before their discovery?
>
>
>
> 3. Finally, given your familiarity with Steven Sitler's case file, can you
> please describe for us a worst-case scenario for the children of Moscow
> (number of victims, age of victims, types of abuse, etc.), if Mr. Sitler
> resumes his pattern of serial predation?
>
>
>
> I believe that these are reasonable questions for a community to ask and I
> believe that you have our community's best interests at heart.
>
>
>
> Thank you,
>
>
>
> Herodotus
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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