[Vision2020] Schwaller whiffs again
bherodotus at yahoo.com
Tue May 29 10:13:01 PDT 2007
Dear Mr. Schwaller,
I am not Joan Opyr but your reference to her is a red flag that moves me to warn you not to read her stuff anymore, for fear that you may lapse into another “I am not Doug Wilson, I just act like him” fit of rage. I say this because Doug Wilson went positively bananas last year after Joan Opyr wrote a piece that covered the larger story of the Kirk’s molesters. Wilson could not challenge the integrity of the author or her article, so he resorted to nit-picking tomato-tomahta items to leave the false impression that she got it wrong. And once again the great man of God used the victims as his pretext to try to silence her and CONTROL THE CONVERSATION, which only proved that at Christ Church, the sheep give their lives for the shepherd. But my point is that if you avoid Ms. Opyr, you will probably avoid another “I am not Doug Wilson, I just act like him” tantrum, at least to the extent that she triggers them.
Moving along, I must note that you whiffed again in response to my questions. So, let’s take it from the top.
First, I asked, “Can you please tell us the recidivism rate for serial pedophiles?” But you stacked your answer with piles of statistics addressing the recidivism rate for “sex-offenders,” not “serial pedophiles,” which is a subset of the “sex offender” category. More to point, it is a subset with specific statistics that make it more difficult to give dishonest answers, such as yours.
You will recall that I told you about the blogger who originally notified the community about this unfortunate providence visited upon the Kirk and Pastor Wilson’s lunatic response to the blogger. Well, last year the blogger posted some statistics that answer the question you avoided:
“Also, men who prefer boys are approximately twice as likely to reoffend as those who prefer girls (Morrison, 1995).”
“Pedophiles, especially those who molest boys, or both boys and girls, are the sex offenders who have the highest recidivism (relapse) rates after incarceration and/or treatment.”
“The younger the prisoner when released, the higher the rate of recidivism. For example, of all the sex offenders under age 25 at the time of discharge from prison, 59.8% were rearrested for some type of crime within 3 years, or more than double the 23.5% of those age 45 or older.”
“In addition, the rate of recidivism for persons with a pedophilic preference for males is approximately twice that of pedophiles who prefer females. . . . The prognosis of successfully ending pedophilic habits among persons who practice pedophilia is not favorable. Pedophiles have a high rate of recidivism; that is, they tend to repeat their acts often over time.”
“Studies that have tracked sex offenders over longer follow-up periods have found that pedophiles who molest boys, and rapists of adult women, were the types of offenders most likely to recidivate at rates of 52% and 39% respectively. . . . One study found that the average number of victims for non-incestuous pedophiles who molest girls is 20; for pedophiles who prefer boys, over 100. . . . Predatory pedophiles, especially those who molest boys, are the sex offenders who have the highest recidivism rates. Over long follow-up periods, more than half of convicted pedophiles are rearrested for a new offense.”
Therefore, Mr. Schwaller, you and your cheerleader Doug Farris may think “somewhere between 5 and 95 percent” a cute response, but it is not honest and it is not funny.
Second, I asked, “Can you please share with us the average number of children that repeat offenders violate before their discovery?” However, you answered a question that that nobody asked. So once again, I refer you to the correct answer as cited from the aforementioned blog:
“It is also important to recognize that official recidivism statistics are always lower than actual re-offense rates, because some sex offenders commit many sex crimes that go unreported and undetected. . . . Offenders who seek out children to victimize by placing themselves in positions of trust, authority, and easy access to youngsters can have hundreds of victims over the course of their lifetimes.”
This was the point of my question that you somehow missed. And while you and your pom-pom boy may get a kick out of “somewhere between 1 and more than 125,” I wonder if you really care about the “1” much less the “more than 125.” What if that “1” was yours, Mr. Schwaller; what if his parents named him Gabriel; would that remove your trite attitude? That was the point of Messieurs Fox and Hansen when they made their tasteless, albeit on-point, proposal about Pastor Wilson’s grandchildren. They understand that Douglas Wilson doesn’t care about any of the victims in this tragedy; hence they suggested putting his family at risk with the hope of teaching him a lesson. However, both men assume that Wilson cares more for his children than for others, which assumes too much. Remember, Douglas Wilson doesn’t care about anyone but himself because IT’S ALL ABOUT DOUG.
Third, I asked, “Can you please describe for us a worst-case scenario for the children of Moscow (number of victims, age of victims, types of abuse, etc.), if Mr. Sitler resumes his pattern of serial predation?” And what you called “an undercurrent of sarcasm” I call “reality,” because this is the reality of the situation. Mr. Sitler will re-offend, and when he does, innocent children will suffer. However, when and if someone catches him, no one will ever know how many innocents he will have raped nor how many times he will have raped them, which leads us back to my original question that you refuse to answer: First, by what standard do you attribute “some modicum of sincerity” to an apology delivered by the psychopath Sitler? and by what standard do you ask Messieurs Fox and Hansen to apologize?
----- Original Message ----
From: Glenn Schwaller <vpschwaller at gmail.com></vpschwaller at gmail.com>
To: Bob Herodotus <bherodotus at yahoo.com></bherodotus at yahoo.com>; vision2020 at moscow.com
Sent: Monday, May 28, 2007 2:18:47 PM
Subject: Re: [Vision2020] A personal invitation to Mr. Schwaller
Visionaries and Mr Herodotus,
Thank you for the invitation to "return" but I never really left. I was simply a bit busy over the past few days taking advantage of the weather break to plant the begonias, nasturtiums, and geraniums.
I'll attempt to answer your questions, but I do so assuming you are being genuine and not disingenuous in your query. I mention this only because another visionary has questioned "the truth about (your) opinions", that this individual "Doesn't believe I'll do that" (accept the truth of my opinions), "thank you very much.", then proceeds to demand the answer to 3 additional questions.
So, on to your questions. These are important, timely questions that deserve answers. However, I don't believe I can give you full nor adequate answers to any of them. I don't know that definitive answers exist, however one can find just about any answer one wants to fit one's position. That being said:
"1. Can you please tell us the recidivism rate for serial pedophiles?"
I don't believe a thorough statistical study has been done for over 10 years. So keeping that in mind, according to the U.S. Department of Justice Bureau of Justice Statistics, within 3 years of release from incarceration, a little more than 5 percent of sex offenders were rearrested for another sex crime. If one looks at ALL crimes committed, about 40 percent of sex offenders were rearrested for other offenses.
Within this three year period, 3.5 percent of convicted sex offenders were convicted again for a sex crime, 24 percent convicted for new crimes, and about 40 percent are imprisoned again because of a parole or probation violation.
However, if you're Joan Opyr, in an article she published not quite a year ago, she quotes a 75% recidivism rate.
The USDJ study also looked at the relationship between offenders and victims and reported that overall, 46 percent of the victims were a family member. A 2005 study by the National Crime Victimization Survey reports that 73 percent of sexual assaults were known by the victim: 38 percent were a friend or acquaintance, 28 percent were involved in an "intimate" relationship, and 7 percent were another relative.
An NPR story in 2005 offered a 98 percent recidivism rate over a 25 year period, with a 60 percent likelihood of offending again within 5 years under the best treatment available., there is a 60% occurrence of re-offence within five years. The story also mentions that the offender in most sexual abuse cases is a family member or friend of the family (97 percent for victims under the age of 6, and 95 percent of those between the ages 6 and 12).
So, somewhere between 5 and 95 percent?
"2. Can you please share with us the average number of children that repeat offenders violate before their discovery?"
Again, I have no concrete statistics. There is apparently some information on Mr Sitler's repeated violations before he was discovered (I'm sure Mr Hansen can give you that number off the top of his head). The numbers seem to run from one to dozens over decades for catholic priests. And in Portugal, a driver and gardener was accused of molesting children at the school where he was worked. After questioning and examining more than 600 children, over 125 were reported to have been victimized by this individual.
So, somewhere between 1 and more than 125?
"3, Can you please describe for us a worst-case scenario for the children of Moscow (number of victims, age of victims, types of abuse, etc.), if Mr. Sitler resumes his pattern of serial predation?"
Quite frankly, I sense an undercurrent of sarcasm in this last question, but hey . . .
Maybe you can ask me how many polar bears, perched on their ever-diminishing slab of ice, are going to starve tonight?
Well, obviously I can't give you the answers you would like to hear. I doubt even Mr Sitler himself would know, given the worst possible case, what would be the answers to those questions. However, if you refer back to the replies to Question 1, you may find some answers of sorts in there.
I'd like to think I have the community's, but perhaps not that of starving polar bear's, interests at heart.
"You can always see it commin', but you can never stop it."
On 5/28/07, Bob Herodotus <bherodotus at yahoo.com></bherodotus at yahoo.com>wrote:
Visionaries and Mr. Schwaller,
I personally invite Mr. Schwaller to return to this forum because I for one found his posts both provocative and enlightening. Hard facts about serial pedophiles are difficult to ascertain and I commend him for sharing his knowledge of this unseemly subject with us so that we as a community can be better prepared to address a predator in our midst.
With this in mind, I have a couple of questions for Mr. Schwaller.
1. Can you please tell us the recidivism rate for serial pedophiles?
2. Can you please share with us the average number of children that repeat offenders violate before their discovery?
3. Finally, given your familiarity with Steven Sitler's case file, can you please describe for us a worst-case scenario for the children of Moscow (number of victims, age of victims, types of abuse, etc.), if Mr. Sitler resumes his pattern of serial predation?
I believe that these are reasonable questions for a community to ask and I believe that you have our community's best interests at heart.
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