[Vision2020] from Jerry Brady

[Bill London]

New Year's Greetings
  This message from Jerry Brady (the Democratic candidate for Idaho Governor last election) is interesting for two reasons:
  1. Brady discusses his thoughts about a statewide progressive publication (print or web) and wonders if anyone else wants to participate in that endeavor.
  2. Brady discusses what went wrong -- or right -- in his campaign
  BL

                



              January 12, 2007  
              Dear Friends, 

              Rickie and I send fond greetings to you for this new year.  After a wonderful 2006, we've been on vacation with relatives in Sedona and considering what's next in our lives.


              Right now we're excited that Al Gore will be speaking at Boise State University on Monday, January 22, as part of a day-long conference on global warming.  World-wide demand for Gore's time is enormous (his speaking fee is $125,000), but he'll be in Boise because Bethine Church asked him to come.  


              We're helping Bethine raise money to fund an endowed Frank Church professorship at BSU.  So if you can, please join us and meet Gore at a 5:00 reception in the Banner Bank Building, Idaho's first sustainable office building.  A donation of $250 per couple comes with two reserved seats for Gore's speech.  Click here to sign up.  We're also looking for event sponsors for $2,500.


              Rickie and I expect to travel a lot in 2007 but will stay committed to Idaho.  We're looking for ways to put to good purpose the truly heartening outpouring of encouragement and good wishes we have received.   


              Nearly 200,000 Idahoans, over 44% of voters, supported our progressive platform.  We carried Idaho's cities.  Our "Idaho is not for sale" theme captured a shift of Idaho values when it comes to public lands and growth.  The Sempra victory signals a new commitment to air and water quality.  We connected with Idahoans who don't share in Idaho's prosperity but deserve to.  


              What would pull progressive Idahoans together to influence public policy and future elections?  My thoughts run back to the news and information business from which Rickie and I come.  Would there be an audience for a progressive online "newspaper" and website that speak to this broad constituency?  How about a printed version?  What is the business model?


              Web publication is not our expertise; we would need help.  However, we would lend our leadership to such an undertaking if we thought it could succeed.  


              The key to success online today seems to be the same as in politics:  many committed people contributing.  We would need many good writers plus editors to take responsibility for sectors such as education, energy, public lands, water, air and water quality, cities, etc.  Humor, for sure.  And we'd need at least one full time, professional editor, which means raising the necessary funds.


              Is this something you would read?  Write for?  Support financially?  Be part of a group thinking this through?  Please let me know.  We will only jump into this when we know it can be done right, which will take time. 

              Be proud and of good cheer!


              Jerry and Rickie Brady


              P.S.  In my last message I said I would prepare an analysis of the election results.  A lot of you won't be interested, so you can stop reading here.  For the rest of you, here is a draft.  I am eager to prepare something that is really useful to future candidates and would appreciate your comments and contributions.  


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              The 2006 Governor's Election:  What Went Wrong; What Went Right?

              The margin between Otter and Brady in 2006 was 8.5 % or 39,000 votes, compared to 14.3% and 59,000 votes between Kempthorne and Brady in 2002, an improvement of almost five points.  Switch 20,000 votes and we win.  But why didn't we?  

              Overall:  There are some obvious answers:  this is a very Republican state, and voters went home to their party at the end.  Bush was more popular here than anywhere else in the country, taking away the "tide against the Administration," which worked well in other states.  Polls show that Idahoans generally believe Idaho is on "the right course."  The economy was strong, jobs plentiful.  There was not enough dissatisfaction to exploit.  The gay marriage amendment influenced some voters.  Most obvious of all is the power of money.  Otter is credited with raising $2.8 million.  If independent expenditures could be traced, the true total could be over $3.3 million.  We raised over $1.3 million and added $400,000 ourselves.

              Statistics:  We broke our vote goals down into the state's five media markets.  Our biggest percentage gain came in the Twin Falls market: up 20% over 2002, from 36 to 43%. Seventy percent of Blaine County voted 70% and Twin Falls, Gooding, Jerome and Lincoln Counties improved 6%, most likely because of the Sempra coal-fired power plant issue.  In the Spokane (more about that below), Idaho Falls-Pocatello, and Salt Lake City markets, we were up 2.5%-not enough.

              The disappointment was the Boise market.  Although we won 58% of the city of Boise vote and won Ada County by 7,000 votes, we lost Canyon County by 10,000 votes.  Our overall performance in the market was 46%, compared to 45% four years ago.  Our vote percentage in seven of the 11 counties in the market declined, including slightly in Canyon (Otter's home county) and 4% in Gem.  (The Boise market is home to 43.5% of all Idaho voters.)  

              The Horse Race:  In the beginning, Otter forced Risch out of the race, and his election was considered inevitable.  It was hard to gain momentum.  However, I proved to be a better candidate than expected, and Otter proved to be worse, at times disengaged and inept under pressure.  We successfully defined the issues and carried the campaign to him.  Republicans were deeply concerned, and some came our way.  We were endorsed by all but one of the state's newspapers, as well as its leading business and agriculture papers.  

              I was able to campaign full time for l9 months. We had a good direct mail campaign: 400,000 pieces tightly targeted.  Our television campaign was superior and cost-effective.  We invested heavily in Spokane television-which Democrats typically can't afford-that helped us come close to winning north Idaho, our best region.  This provides some idea of what it takes to be viable.  (On the other hand, Democrats will not have another candidate who was a newspaper owner more progressive than the place where he lived, a handicap.)  

              Second Guessing:  Although our consultants and a lot of smart people disagree, I keep thinking we might have won.  There is no excuse for losing 80-90% of undecided voters, as seemed to have happened, even if they were mostly Republican.  Everyone knows Republicans make up big deficits in the closing week or so (Evans, Echohawk, etc.)  We should have been better prepared.   

              Until the last 10 days, Otter's attack ads had been scattered and ineffective.  Consequently, we failed to appreciate the damage that would be done by at least $250,000 last minute attack television in the hands of the Republican National Committee-on top of what Otter already had committed.  In the closing days, Mitt Romney came to Boise; 2,500 turned out to see Cheney in Coeur d'Alene.  Recorded messages from Bush, Romney, Crapo, Craig, etc. had their effect.  Plus, several hundred thousand dollars worth of direct mail hit Idaho in the last week, none of it reported so far.   

              We expended half our last week's television advertising on a positive ad, which was well received but appeared not to have persuaded the undecided.  Our defensive ads for the last week did not repel the attack or raise new doubts about Otter.  It now seems to me the first money raised in a campaign should be for last minute response television, recorded at the last minute.  That should be on top of last week TV ads carrying the candidate's basic message.  Of course, it all comes down to money: this would have required an additional $150,000.  

              We used free media well, traveled hard, and raised money doggedly.  We are credited with having a good platform, a clear vision of what a Brady administration would look like.  This energized a lot of Idahoans and still does. But not enough people thought their lives would be made better by voting for us.  Instead, Republicans played out the classic threat that we would raise taxes and somehow hurt senior citizens.  

              A Six-Pack of Recommendations-Perhaps the race could not have been won. Be that as it may, here's what I learned that I hope is helpful:

                
                1.. Close powerfully.  Plan for the last 10 days.  Raise money and reserve television time exclusively for that time-on top of a normal buy.  Think of it as a separate campaign run by someone who is not wedded to what you've done up to then.  Close strong, fresh, and powerfully.

                2.. Break down the state.  Candidates are told there is only one, statewide campaign, and it must be simple.  Swing voters will only focus on three issues at most.  All true.  However, politics is still local, so find and exploit local issues using local media, particularly in small counties.  They exist, and they don't have to be as big as Sempra.  Assign someone to that job.  


                3.. Faith.  This is another way to break down the electorate.  Unlike many Democrats, we we talk about our faith; that's what our last commercial was about.  But it wasn't enough.  To win we must connect with more members of the two large religious communities that vote the other way, Evangelicals and members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Later Day Saints.  There's no alternative.  The Vineyard, an evangelical church in Garden City, is way ahead when it comes to environmental stewardship and one of its members, Democrat Brandon Durst, got elected to the Legislature.  That should tell us something.

                4.. New strengths.  Taken together, we carried Idaho's cities and four smaller resort counties (Blaine, Teton, Valley, and Bonner).  That's where we added six legislative seats and came within five more seats by less than 500 votes each.  That's a foothold.  Start there. 

                5.. Walk the talk.  We spoke as much about values as about issues. We defended "our Idaho way of life."  People knew we cared; we had stories to prove it.  More powerful is when people know your values from deeds as well as words.  If you care about the minimum wage, take a job for a minimum wage; if it's health care for the uninsured, act it out.  I had been a businessman, lawyer, writer, and member of lots of boards.  I wish now I had spent more time in the trenches, with calloused hands to show for it. 

                6.. Media.  We ran a good media campaign for the people who actually vote.  We got good advisers and followed their advice.  We raised enough money to be competitive.  However, media is changing fast.  I'm convinced future candidates can win while being outspent by being more local, more clever, and making better use of new media.  
               Jerry M. Brady



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                    Brady for Idaho Governor
                    Web: www.bradyforidaho.org
                    Email: JerryBrady at bradyforidaho.org
                    My Profile: Update My Profile 



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