[Vision2020] [Bulk] Re: Human Activity Accelerating Astronomical Effects By Factor Of 10 Million

Wed Apr 25 21:09:45 PDT 2007

Ted Moffett wrote:
>  
> Paul et. al.
>  
> Paul wrote:
>
> We've been around for a mere few million years, only the last few 
> thousand of which we've had the ability to write things down.  This is 
> a small fraction of time for the Sun.  Our observations of the Sun has 
> occurred over such a small timescale that we can basically say that 
> we've only seen it as a static observation.
> ------
> Good point, a point that applies in different ways to many scientific 
> issues...We could question whether gravity has always operated as we 
> observe, given the over 10 billion year history of the universe, and 
> our limited time scale of observation.  Science makes certain 
> assumptions about how the universe operates, and the continuity of the 
> "laws of nature" is one of those assumptions, continuity over time and 
> in different places in the universe.  This principle cannot be 
> "proved" without a doubt, as far as I know
>  
> But science does have its "time machines" to see into the past before 
> humans could make observations directly.  The theory of biological 
> evolution is not based on just the life forms we have observed 
> evolving since Darwin, but on the evidence of fossils from Earth's 
> history, offering a kind of scientific "time machine" giving 
> information on life forms millions of years before humans walked the 
> planet.  And in astronomy, we have observations of many different 
> kinds of stars from many different stages of evolution, providing a 
> kind of "time machine" to allow us by inference to look into our suns 
> past and future.  The information we get from distant stars is in some 
> ways like a fossil (I don't intend this as an exact analogy), 
> given that this information sometimes took longer than the history of 
> the human race to reach us...It's mind boggling, but astronomy gathers 
> information about the universe dating from billions of years ago, even 
> before our solar system formed.

That's all true.  I was thinking more along the lines of leaving a 
kettle of water on the stove.  You've been watching it for a few 
minutes, and nothing bad has happened, but you notice it is a chaotic 
environment and you can't really predict how exactly it's going to 
boil.  Maybe it will get  more violent soon, maybe it won't.  Of course, 
a kettle of water boiling isn't going to easily harm us, but I suspect 
that a small change from the Sun's perspective can really ruin our day.  
Somewhere I found a clip of the Sun's surface as it moves.  It was 
pretty chaotic.

It is amazing what scientists can do with our limited observations here 
on Earth and in it's immediate vicinity. 

> ------
> Paul wrote:
>
> I think the 0.8 billion year number you quoted is the time it will 
> take for the slow process of hydrogen fusion at the core to raise the 
> Earth's temperature 5%. 
> ------
> The article I quoted on stellar evolution said that due to our suns 
> evolution the Earth would warm 5 degrees in 0.8 billion years, not 5%.

Five degrees, my bad.

>  
> As to how reliable this figure is, I cannot say for sure, given I have 
> not surveyed the scientific consensus on this issue in this field, and 
> there may not be a consensus.
>  
> I was wondering, can you offer some sources, articles, books, or 
> websites, for the information you were providing on stellar evolution?

Sure.  I kind of made a mish-mash of a few sites.  I'm searching for 
them again, my apologies if I miss a few.  Also, it's very likely that I 
misunderstood much of what I read.  I'm just getting started in this area.

http://zebu.uoregon.edu/~js/ast122/lectures/lec14.html
http://www.astronomynotes.com/evolutn/s5.htm
http://www.astronomy.ohio-state.edu/~dhw/Intro/lec11_giants.ps
http://homepage.mac.com/dtrapp/eChem.f/labC3.html
http://www.maa.mhn.de/Scholar/star_evol.html
http://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/Videos/general/sun.avi

Paul
>  
> Ted Moffett
>
> Ted Moffett wrote:
>
>>      
>>     All-
>>      
>>     Our sun will eventually cause fatal increases in Earth
>>     temperature in its inevitable evolution into a red giant star. 
>>     When will these temperature impacts become significant?  The
>>     article below estimates that in 800 million years the sun's
>>     impact will raise Earth temperatures by 5 degrees, the same
>>     amount predicted by some global warming models for the human
>>     impact on global temperatures in the next century:
>>      
>>     http://www.sussex.ac.uk/press_office/media/media191.pdf
>>      
>>      
>>     http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache:hAqjwfgBKT4J:www.sussex.ac.uk/press_office/media/media191.pdf+time+remaining+Earth+biosphere+sun+expansion&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=6&gl=us
>>     <http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache:hAqjwfgBKT4J:www.sussex.ac.uk/press_office/media/media191.pdf+time+remaining+Earth+biosphere+sun+expansion&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=6&gl=us>
>>      
>>     "As a first application, let us ask how long it will take for the
>>     temperature of the Earth to rise by 5 degrees (the rise
>>     anticipated in the next century or so if the current
>>     human-induced greenhouse effect continues unchecked).  The
>>     equation predicts it will take the evolving sun about about 0.8
>>     billion years to produce this rise- so human activity may
>>     be accelerating astronomical effects by a factor of about 10
>>     million."
>>     ------
>>     This puts the highly doubtful claim that the current warming
>>     trend on Earth is mostly due to increases in solar activity into
>>     perspective, it seems.
>>      
>>     Ted Moffett
>>      
>>      
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