[Vision2020] Human Activity Accelerating Astronomical Effects By Factor Of 10 Million

[Donovan Arnold]

Ted,
   
  I don't doubt that the Earth is getting warmer. I also don't doubt that humans pollute and destroy their environment. However, how do you know that the impact of humans behavior is having a significant impact or contribution to global warming?
   
  Aren't there other factors in nature, the spin of the Earth, tectonic shift, chemistry of the planet, and natural cycles that are causing the global warming anyway?
   
  Lets look around us. Venus is hotter than Mercury, yet Mercury is much closer to the Sun. Mars is heating up 4X faster than Earth, and it farther away from the Sun. And look at Io a moon way out there and has tremendous volcanic activity. 
   
  It seems there are lots of factors in play. I also wonder, doesn't all that smog we put in the air, actually block the Sun's heat?
   
  Best,
   
  Donovan

Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com> wrote:
     
  All-
   
  Our sun will eventually cause fatal increases in Earth temperature in its inevitable evolution into a red giant star.  When will these temperature impacts become significant?  The article below estimates that in 800 million years the sun's impact will raise Earth temperatures by 5 degrees, the same amount predicted by some global warming models for the human impact on global temperatures in the next century: 
   
  http://www.sussex.ac.uk/press_office/media/media191.pdf
   
   
  http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache:hAqjwfgBKT4J:www.sussex.ac.uk/press_office/media/media191.pdf+time+remaining+Earth+biosphere+sun+expansion&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=6&gl=us 
   
  "As a first application, let us ask how long it will take for the temperature of the Earth to rise by 5 degrees (the rise anticipated in the next century or so if the current human-induced greenhouse effect continues unchecked).  The equation predicts it will take the evolving sun about about 0.8 billion years to produce this rise- so human activity may be accelerating astronomical effects by a factor of about 10 million."
  ------
  This puts the highly doubtful claim that the current warming trend on Earth is mostly due to increases in solar activity into perspective, it seems.
   
  Ted Moffett
   
   
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