[Vision2020] Will Israel bomb Iran?

[Ted Moffett]

All-

>From a letter to a fellow Moscow High School graduate, class of '69:

I don't think the US would invade Iran, but just make strikes against
nuclear facilities or military targets.

Israel did bomb an Iraqi nuclear facility in 1981, when Saddam was in
power.  I'm sure you've heard about this.  Some think Israel will bomb
Iran's nuclear facilities within a year.  The US would not need to.  But if
the US Republican controlled power base thinks they can make Israel happy,
as we defend our critical ally in the Middle East from potential nuclear
threats from Iran, also keeping nuclear weapons out of the hands of an ememy
of the US, while helping to win an election in the process, now the idea the
US will strike Iran before next months elections makes more sense.
Ahmadinejad, Iran's current president, did make statements about Israel
being "removed from the pages of history."  Read story on Israel bombing
Iraqi nuclear facilities in 1981, and the option for them to bomb Iran's
soon, at this link, from 10/9/06:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/this_world/5409816.stm

[image: BBC NEWS]
Will Israel bomb Iran?
  By Chris Boulding
Director, Will Israel bomb Iran?

*This World investigates the debate going on in Israel about how to deal
with Iran's nuclear project, which divides the diplomatic world. *

Iran insists that its programme is exclusively peaceful, citing the
international treaty which gives it the right to use atomic energy to
produce power.

 Yet there remains deep diplomatic suspicion of Iran in the West, and
growing alarm that it is exploiting its civil nuclear programme as a cover
to produce atomic weapons.

Israel is the crux. Seen in the Arab world as America's outpost in the
Middle East, Israel's very existence is regarded as a "stain" by Iran's
Islamic regime which came to power in 1979.

Within two months of his election, Iran's current President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad approvingly quoted Ayatollah Khomeini's call for Israel to be
"removed from the pages of history".

The statement drew fierce condemnation inside Israel and crystallised
attitudes towards Iran among Israelis.

*Intelligence reports *

Israel's former Prime Minister Shimon Peres called for the international
community to shun Iran.

He said: "Iran is the only member of the United Nations that threatens
publicly to destroy another member of the United Nations. It is a call for
genocide."

The Israeli leadership had already become increasingly concerned by
intelligence reports on Iran's nuclear project.

   *Israel is not going to wait until the first nuclear bomb is going to be
dropped on Israel *
Avi Dichter, Israeli Minister for Public Security

But now Israeli feelings about Iran have reached a critical point. In order
to understand Israeli attitudes, it is necessary to get inside the Israeli
mindset, to uncover why Iran is being seen as an 'existential' threat - that
is, a danger to the nation's very existence.

Why is Israel's fear of attack so intense? And what kind of response could
such feelings trigger?

To some in Israel's political world, the country's life is on the line and
if some action is not taken, the country could disappear from history in the
way that President Ahmadinejad spoke of.

Despite Iran's frequent diplomatic reminders that its nuclear objectives are
entirely peaceful, there is a sense of foreboding inside Israel.

The former Prime Minister Ehud Barak sums up his own feelings by drawing on
a personal experience after the Yom Kippur war in 1973, when he returned
from Israel to live in America.

He said he realised - while watching a football game - that if Israel had
lost the war, it would have become a part of history and not a single game
of football would be cancelled.

"And I carried this memory with me to the chair of the prime minister.
Ultimately we are standing alone."

*Nuclear deterrent *

According to the respected Carnegie Institute, Israel has its own deterrent,
in the shape of an arsenal of as many as 200 atomic warheads.

But Israel has never openly acknowledged its atomic programme, and has
always maintained that it will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons
in to the Middle East.

The possibility that Iran could build nuclear weapons is regarded by some of
Israel's military and political class as an unacceptable danger, putting the
world's most dangerous weapons in the hands of their enemies.

The former head of Israel's security service Shin Beit, Avi Dichter,
believes Israel must now adopt a "preventative" approach.

"I was an Air Marshal and I was trained to open fire towards a terrorist
once I identified two things: one that he has a means of warfare, a pistol,
a hand grenade, etc, and the second that he has an intention to use it in
order to kill innocent people," says Mr Dichter, who is now Israel's
minister for Public Security.

"Israel is not going to wait until the first nuclear bomb is going to be
dropped on Israel."

Western intelligence services claim they have good evidence that Iran is
developing atomic weapons and President Bush has declared that he will not
permit a nuclear armed Iran.

But with its ongoing commitments in Iraq, some of Israel's strategic
thinkers believe America has too much at stake to intervene militarily.

*Iraq precedent? *

Meanwhile, Israel's foreign minister has said publicly that time is running
out. This scenario begs the question: could Israel act against Iran on its
own?

Twenty five years ago, it did precisely that. The Iraqi nuclear reactor at
Osirak was potentially capable of producing material for atomic weapons.

America was then backing Saddam Hussein's regime, and seemed unlikely to
take hostile action against a nation at war with Iran.

In 1981, when the reactor was nearly complete, Prime Minister Begin of
Israel felt that the threat required immediate action. He decided to go it
alone and launch a raid to destroy the nuclear plant. Eight Israeli F-16
fighters bombed the Iraqi facility, in what was seen in Israel as a model of
pre-emptive action.

   *As a last resort, the West should be ready to launch military strikes to
deal with Iranian nuclear capabilities. *
Moshe Yaalon, former chief of staff, Israeli armed forces
Could this happen again? According to Israeli intelligence sources, Iran's
scientists are now within a year of reaching the technical point when they
could enrich uranium to the level required for atomic arms.

This is regarded in Israel as the point of no return, after which Iran would
allegedly be able to produce the uranium needed at secret sites.

Some Israelis think this is the moment when action should be taken. For
them, a nuclear armed Iran is a doomsday scenario.

Israel's war with Hezbollah this summer reminded Israelis of Iran's reach
beyond its own borders. Iran is widely believed to provide support and
weaponry to Hezbollah.

The end of the conflict left Israel's government and its military under
investigation for what was seen as a failure to defeat the Islamic militant
movement convincingly.

Some inside Israel believe that Israel must turn its attention directly to
Iran.

The former chief of staff of Israel's armed forces, Moshe Yaalon concludes:
"As a last resort, the West should be ready to launch military strikes to
deal with Iranian nuclear capabilities ...but Israel should be ready to deal
with this kind of threat, if anyone else doesn't do it."

*Will Israel bomb Iran? was broadcast on Tuesday, 10 October, 2006 at
21.50BST on BBC Two
*
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/programmes/this_world/5409816.stm

Published: 2006/10/09 10:38:45 GMT

(c) BBC MMVI
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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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