[Vision2020] Are Moscow schools shrinking?

[heirdoug at netscape.net]

Andreas,

You may not pay much attention to Dale's Web site but he tends to have 
some really accurate information and he keeps track of what folks have 
said in the past.

I do have one question: what does keely mix being wrong about 
everything she's written with regards to moscow education have to do 
with Dabney?




For those who have not read the website (and for Tom who cannot access 
it):

MSD Enrollment Down Again

According to MSD Superintendent Candis Donicht, MSD enrollment is down 
again — this year about 30 students.

I’ll be asking for a public records request of MSD to get the exact 
numbers for you. But this downward trend has got to be driving the 
educrats crazy.

I would like to remind you of a quote from keely emerine mix back on 1 
June 2005:
"For all it's worth, MSD's enrollment has stabilized and is, in fact, 
increasing. The addition of new single-family houses on the east and 
north sides of town almost assuredly will lead to an increase in 
student enrollment."

At that time, I gave nine reasons why mix was wrong in her prediction. 
And, as time has shown, her optimism about MSD growth continues to be 
wrong-wrong. And she remains silent on the issue.

For my readers, here are the nine reasons I gave back on 1 June 2005 as 
to why she was wrong then (and is still wrong now). The numbers are a 
bit dated (by 16 months), but the rationale is still valid.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------

*   The U.S. Census Bureau projects 52% Increase in Idaho's Population 
by 2030 -- but 1/3 of that will be retirees.
*   Moscow has been advertised in newspapers and magazines in Orange 
County as being a great place for California refugees.
*   The U.S. Census Bureau projects the number of young people in Idaho 
under age 18 will decrease as a percentage of the population. Census 
Bureau analysts anticipate young people will fall from 28.5 percent of 
Idaho's population in 2000 to under 25 percent in 2030.
*   Moscow is well known for being an expensive city to live in. That 
means that young families cannot afford to live here -- at least not 
within the MSD boundary.
*   The major employers in town are down-sizing. In fact, if the 
Wal-Mart goes into Pullman and the Wal-Mart leaves Moscow, there goes 
one of our top three employers.
*   Census Bureau records show that Moscow actually grew 20% in the 
last 10 years. At the same time, MSD enrollment went down 13.5% -- why 
does mix think that all of a sudden a turn-around is going to happen? 
Because of the new single-family houses being built?
*   Per the 2000 Census report, school-aged children in Moscow are 
increasing at a rate of 30-35 per year. Where are those 100 students 
per year going? (increase of 30/year overall per the census + loss of 
70/year at MSD)
*   The houses that are being built are not affordable for a young 
family with kids. Take a look over at a MLS website for the price of 
houses. You'll see what I mean.
*   With the threat of another bond still hanging over us, and all the 
other impending economic issues, it's not wise for young families to 
move to Moscow:
    $4,750,000 in cut-backs at UI
    A potential $3,200,000 bond levy for the 1912 Building.
    Imminent 67% increase in water rates.

Put all these things together, and you see that no young family can 
afford to live here. That diminishes the number of families with kids 
who can move here. Furthermore, with the no-growth mentality and 
“tax-till-they-bleed“ mentality, that further exacerbates the problem. 
Finally, the Idaho growth is predicted to be mostly retirees -- and 
Moscow is particularly favorable to retirees.

Bottom line: there's no way MSD can see the growth that mix is 
predicting.



Thanks for listening
Doug






-----Original Message-----
 From: vision2020-bounces at moscow.com 
[mailto:vision2020-bounces at moscow.com]
On Behalf Of Andreas Schou
Sent: Thursday, October 12, 2006 12:44 PM
To: heirdoug at netscape.net
Cc: vision2020 at moscow.com
Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Are Moscow schools shrinking?

On 10/12/06, heirdoug at netscape.net <heirdoug at netscape.net> wrote:
> Some thing that was missed earlier in the month by the fine folks 
here
> on the Vis.
>
> http://right-mind.us/blogs/moscoweducation/archive/2006/10/09/47055.as
> px

I pay very little attention to Dale on issues of education, because, 
after
all -- in the words of R.L. Dabney -- he believes that "if our 
civilization
is to continue, there must be, at the bottom of the social fabric, a 
class
who must work and not read."

-- ACS

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