[Vision2020] When Moscow Doubles - Questioning the premise

[Nils Peterson]

D-8 is a reference I don't understand.

If the consensus here is that Lambert is wildly unrealistic, both based on
anecdotal evidence and Census projection, and if the demographic that is
arriving is post-children retirees, then we could ask a couple questions:

1. Is this passive growth (and demographic) alright, or should we be taking
out ads in AARP magazine? How are we thinking about integrating these people
into Moscow; lacking children, they may lack some of the means that many
other people have to integrate themselves into the town.

2. Given 1-2% growth rate (not Lambert's 5%), what planning, organization,
etc, should be undertaken?  MarkS will note water. Keely will note the
schools issues (driven by aging facilities, and flat, or declining?
enrollment).


On 5/21/06 10:05 PM, "Jerry Weitz" <gweitz at moscow.com> wrote:

> Like Mark I do not see doubling potential for the Palouse in general.  What
> would be the driving variables?  Anecdotally, at the dental office, I have
> observed a moderate influx of retired folks relocating here, not families
> with children.  My basic premise for encouraging growth (economic/business)
> is to help bolster  UI's fortunes through a research triangle.  Hence, if
> this has validity, then we need planning.  Mark deserves credit for being
> the commissioner who kept D-8 in Latah County.  Mark really suffered
> through a recall that was initiated by his efforts for D-8.  jerry
> 
> At 08:22 PM 5/21/06, Nils Peterson wrote:
>> (Thanks Mark, for pointing out that I mis-addressed this; I did want it go
>> into the general conversation)
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> I think the pivotal issue here is demographics. Who are these would-be
>> doublers?
>> 
>> They are not UI or NSA students. The demographic of 18-22 year olds is
>> peaking and headed down. More likely the university will struggle to hold on
>> to its position in an increasingly competitive market. WSU seems to be
>> positioning itself as a graduate university. NSA may fare better than UI in
>> that it has a very special market niche.
>> 
>> The doublers are not university employees. See above. WSU's move up-market
>> may increase its faculty numbers, but not hugely.
>> 
>> What about high tech? Schweitzer et al? Harder to predict. The right company
>> could grow from nothing today. More likely, if the right handful that are
>> small today experienced double digit growth. Less likely, but possible, is a
>> company re-locating here. Not a huge company. 100 employees.  This makes a
>> topic for this discussion, how would we recruit/ screen/ facilitate or
>> impede such a company? Given my theme of identifying gov't & civic
>> organizations that are needed for this doubling -- the Chamber and LEDC seem
>> to be the organizations we have to do this work.
>> 
>> Are the would-be doublers retirees? At age 50, I consider myself the end of
>> the baby boom, and have watched recreational property that I might enjoy
>> (like a place at the Oregon Coast) jump way up in price as the boomers ahead
>> of me got similar ideas.  Imagine a couple that have had good, steady
>> employment for the last 20+ years. They purchased and paid off a home. It
>> has appreciated significantly because of its location in an urban area,
>> perhaps to $400,000 or more. This couple is 62, kids grown and gone, and
>> they are tired of the urban life. They draw $50K in retirement from several
>> sources. There are thousands of these people. Might they come to Moscow?
>> This is a wild card, but unlike new high tech business, I'm not sure what
>> gov't and civic organizations might be needed.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> On 5/21/06 8:34 AM, "Mark Solomon" <msolomon at moscow.com> wrote:
>> 
>>> ...more likely that we'll see a leveling of the growth rates between
>>> the two: 0.75% annually for Moscow. Of course, we are a different
>>> community with different amenities (such as a forested mountain just
>>> outside of town) but I would like someone to explain why we should
>>> either plan for or expect our population to double in 15 years when
>>> there is no historical trend to indicate it will occur. We are not
>>> Boise or Coeur d'Alene or Sandpoint or McCall or Kuna or Meridian
>>> or....
>> 
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