[Vision2020] When Moscow Doubles in Population

[Jerry Weitz]

With UI's decline and BSU's incline and state population/economic shifts, 
it appears that a rural research triangle between the Universities, 
business, and our local counties may prove extremely helpful.  Planned 
growth would be need to be implemented with a full understanding of its 
permeations.  jerry


At 08:34 AM 5/21/06, Mark Solomon wrote:
>I too have heard Mr. Lambert refer to a doubling of population in Idaho 
>over 15 years. However, I have yet to hear anyone say that Moscow's 
>population will follow that same curve. Moscow has had an averaged growth 
>rate of 1%/year for decades and there is no reason to assume it will be 
>changing anytime soon, especially given the restraint of available water 
>supply and the somewhat steady state of our leading economic drivers (UI, 
>ag, retail and, to a lesser extent, technology).
>
>Here's an open question, that I keep hoping someone more versed in 
>statistical analysis than myself would undertake: how much of the 1% 
>Moscow growth rate was driven by the artificial restraint on development 
>of ag land in Whitman County and what the anticipated effect on future 
>Moscow growth might be?
>
>  My quick look at the Pullman annual growth rate is 0.5% annually from 
> 1990-2004. Given the similar nature of the Moscow/Pullman economies and 
> the removal of the ag land development restriction it is more likely that 
> we'll see a leveling of the growth rates between the two: 0.75% annually 
> for Moscow. Of course, we are a different community with different 
> amenities (such as a forested mountain just outside of town) but I would 
> like someone to explain why we should either plan for or expect our 
> population to double in 15 years when there is no historical trend to 
> indicate it will occur. We are not Boise or Coeur d'Alene or Sandpoint or 
> McCall or Kuna or Meridian or....
>
>Then there is that water thing.
>
>Mark Solomon
>
>At 8:02 AM -0700 5/21/06, Nils Peterson wrote:
>>I was at the Affordable Housing workshop yesterday afternoon, and as it
>>broke up, got to chatting will Bill Lambert who mentioned that Idaho is
>>predicted to double its population in the next 15 years. Lets assume, for a
>>minute, that is true, and further that Moscow will participate and as a
>>visioning group, work on a thought experiment. For point of topicality, lets
>>say the doubling will be achieved in the year 2020 (14 years).
>>
>>Rules for this conversation: you must be as explicit as you can about your
>>assumptions, but you are allowed to make them -- even like this one:  for
>>point of this conversation, assume Moscow has a population of 20,000 now and
>>will grow to 40,000.  Others are allowed to talk about your assumptions, or
>>to make counter assumptions.  Bashing one another is not interesting.
>>
>>My suggested goal for the opening part of this conversation -- surface the
>>topics for the sub-conversation. What are the big areas and issues we need
>>to think about? The big areas will either be represented by government and
>>civic organizations in existence today, or they will point to organizational
>>gaps we need to consider filling.
>>
>>If you will make your subject line informative, like this, we'll all be
>>better able to track what may be multiple threads of the conversation: When
>>Moscow Doubles - Topic Water
>>
>>I'm looking forward to your help thinking out this question.
>
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