[Vision2020] Wayne's election comment
Donovan Arnold
donovanjarnold2005 at yahoo.com
Fri Mar 10 12:37:40 PST 2006
Kit,
I understand your frustration at losing by just a few votes. You ran a good campaign. But I do not share your view that there was something odd about this election vs. other elections. I do not claim to have all the answers. But I do have a degree in Political Science and I do closely analyze every Latah, Moscow, and federal election precinct by precinct. I offer you my opinions here:
"-- 3.95% of the ballots cast in a race with 0.57% difference between
3rd & 5th place."
This has more to do with the dynamics of the race. Bob Stout was clearly a front runner. The five candidates that got the next most votes were the ones that put the most effort into their campaigns.
"5.4 times the votes between "Carscallen" and "Craine"--adjacent
names on the list."
The names on the ballot are actually listed in random order, not the same on every ballot, only the results are listed in the same oder every time.
"Question: Is there any pattern to the overvotes?"
NO, other than the two year position for city council always gets more undervotes because it confuses people.
"Which precincts were they in?"
Overvotes occurred in almost all precincts. No precinct has a monopoly on people that cannot work a ballot.
"How many involved the third, fourth, and fifth place finishers?"
Almost all of ballots that voted in the four year council election since almost everyone voted for at least one of the third, fourth, or fifth place finishers.
"The number of overvotes for this race were dramatically more than
for the other two races."
Yes, that is because people are more likely to vote for four council members when they have three votes then they are to vote for two mayors or both people in a two way election. This occurred in the 2003 election. Over 200 people tried to vote for both Nancy Chaney and Steve Busch for the two year council seat. People do not understand the 2 year and 4 year seats and how you cannot just vote for your four favorite candidates. People also try to pick two from each council election. So they overvote and undervote on the same ballot.
"There were a large number of undervotes. Although these can be
explained by people voting for fewer than three candidates, more than
a third of the possible votes were in this category. That seems a
little extreme."
This is very common. There were more undervotes in the 2003 election, % wise. People rarely vote for as many candidates as they can. The more candidates you can choose, the larger the number of undervotes you will have as well. You also have to realize that people could cast 3 times as many votes in the four-year council election then the other two elections. More confusion + more voting = more voter errors. Also keep in mind, a person that only votes in the mayoral election, which is many, adds three undervotes for the 4 year seat election but only one for the two year. That can add up undervotes quickly. 500 people out of 5500 ( 1 in 11 people) only voting for mayor would result in 1500 undervotes.
"Question: Were any of the undervotes due to a punch that did not
displace a Chad?"
Most likely if someone did not punch the chad correctly and take care to see it was displaced, it would not be counted.
While I am not allowed to view the actual counting of ballots, I believe that ballots are counted by machine, and then by hand if the election is close.
The votes are counted by precinct. So irregularities are quickly spotted. A precinct that has too many votes, or suddenly votes liberal instead of conservative or vice versa, would be easily spotted. Any mechanical error would have to done in such a way as to make each precinct count seem normal.The odds a computer would make an error that matched the political demographics of18 precincts unnoticed seems too astronomically small to be taken seriously.
The majority of voters voted for Chaney, Ament, and Stout, as a block. A second group of voters voted Hamlet, Steed, and Weber as a block. The remaining seat was hard fought between the next three strongest candidates.
I'm sorry, but the number of votes cast, the number of undervotes, overvotes, and how each precinct voted is predictable based upon past election results, the elections on the ballot, and the individual dynamics of the campaign.
Kit, you should consider running again.
Take Care,
Donovan J Arnold
Craine Kit <kcraine at verizon.net> wrote: As one who paid very close attention to the last election, I can
definitely state that the election went seriously awry and the only
people who seemed to have noticed--or cared--were a small number of
voters who felt they were cheated.
I do not believe the irregularities which affected the outcome were
intentional. They were the result of a large field of candidates and
inexperienced organizer.
There was a known flaw in the ballots for the 4-year race. The names
in the booklet and the chads on ballot card could easily be
misaligned. This was discovered by voters who used the machines in
City Hall during the absentee period, checked their ballot, and
discovered their choice was recorded wrong. There were enough spoiled
ballots that the City reprinted them for the general election. This,
they felt, solved the problem.
Given an analysis of the numbers (shown below) and the reports of
individual experiences that I heard after the election, the City’s
assumption may not have been correct.
What disturbed me, and others, was that there were signs something
was wrong during the vote count, but the people who were responsible
for ensuring the election was fair--including the City Council--
failed to investigate. Instead, the results were certified without
question.
Even the Lapwai election officials--with their city government in
total disarray--noticed there was something wrong with their numbers
and resolved the issues before they certified the results. Moscow's
failure to do so is the issue we should be discussing.
I struggled for the entire appeals period over how to respond to the
outcome of the election. For a number of reasons--including not
wanting to be labeled as a whiny Al Gore--I decided there was no
point in publicly raising what would become a very contentious issue.
There is no way to determine who actually won the third 4-year seat
and the turmoil that were result from trying would do nothing to move
this community forward.
Instead, I privately suggested to the incoming administration that it
conduct an open, public investigation of the election and taking
steps to correct any discovered problems. Perhaps, now that the new
Mayor and Council are settled into their offices, it is time to do that.
Kit Craine
RED FLAGS AND QUESTIONS
1) The alignment problem was discovered by voters who checked their
ballots during absentee voting at City Hall. According to Stephanie
Kalasz (on Wednesday November 2nd, 2005), approximately 160 votes
were cast before the problem was noticed.
That is:
-- 3.95% of the ballots cast in a race with 0.57% difference between
3rd & 5th place.
-- 5.4 times the number of votes between 3rd & 4th place.
-- 5.4 times the votes between "Carscallen" and "Craine"--adjacent
names on the list.
Question: What happened to those ballots? Were they counted or thrown
out?
2) A number of voters checked their ballots, found the wrong chad had
been punched out, turned in the ballot, and received a new one. The
number of ballots that were spoiled and replaced was not included in
the results that were released to the public.
Question: How many ballots were spoiled?
3) One person reported to me that she filed a written complaint at
the polls. Others (experienced voters) reported that they had to ask
election officials for help inserting the ballot in the slot and/or
checking it.
Question: How many complaints were there? How many voters reported
confusion or needed help?
4) The votes that were publicly reported show a very close race for
the third, fourth, and fifth finishers for the 4-year position. Three
hundred six (306) ballots were overvotes in this race--ten times the
difference in between 3rd & 4th and 4th & 5th places.
MARGINS
Place..............Votes..............% per Seat
3rd to 4th.........30.......................0.29
4th to 5th.........29.......................0.28
3rd to 5th.........59.......................0.57
Question: Is there any pattern to the overvotes? Which precincts were
they in? How many involved the third, fourth, and fifth place finishers?
5) The number of overvotes for this race were dramatically more than
for the other two races. While one might expect a few more overvotes
when the instructions to are to vote for three rather than one, eight
to twenty-five times as many is cause for concern.
OVERVOTES
Race.....Overvotes.....% of Ballots Cast.....Seats.....% per Seat
4-Year......
306.....................7.54.................3..............2.52
2-Year........
12.....................0.30.................1..............0.30
Mayor..........
4.....................0.10.................1..............0.10
Question: See 4.
6) There were a large number of undervotes. Although these can be
explained by people voting for fewer than three candidates, more than
a third of the possible votes were in this category. That seems a
little extreme.
UNDERVOTES
Race.....Overvotes.....% of Ballots Cast.....Seats.....% per Seat
4-Year.....
1495...................36.87.................3............12.29
2-Year.......
243.....................5.99.................1..............5.99
Mayor.........
97.....................2.39.................1..............2.39
Question: Were any of the undervotes due to a punch that did not
displace a Chad?
Kit Craine
On Mar 9, 2006, at 9:49 AM, Art Deco wrote:
> James, et al,
>
> There are other subscribers on this list who could give a less
> terse, more informative analysis of the problems of the last City
> of Moscow election than I briefly posted. I talked to at least two
> of them last night. Their words would carry much more weight than
> mine, hence I encourage them or others with the details to post.
>
> This information about the egregious defects in the last city
> election is not a deep "state" secret although some of those
> involved might wish it to be.
>
> The voting system needs to be fixed so that mistakes, cheating, and/
> or disenfranchisement have a much, much lower probability of
> occurring. The place to start is on the local level. I hope the
> Moscow City Council and the Latah County Commissioners have enough
> faith in the democratic process to invest the time, effort, and
> resources to attempt to provide for their constituents a near-to-
> perfect-as-possible voting system. Soon.
>
> Without each voter's vote counting exactly as they intended, it is
> a hypocritical farce to talk about choice and the democratic
> process. If the numbers in the original post below are not a wake-
> up call, I am afraid that the battle is already lost to apathy.
>
>
> Wayne A. Fox
> 1009 Karen Lane
> PO Box 9421
> Moscow, ID 83843
>
> (208) 882-7975
> waf at moscow.com
>
>
> ----- Original Message ----- From: "James Reynolds"
>
> To:
> Sent: Thursday, March 09, 2006 8:11 AM
> Subject: [Vision2020] Wayne's election comment
>
>
>> Morning Wayne,
>>
>> Could you elaborate on your accusation about the elections for
>> Moscow City Council members being tainted? Do you think there was
>> a deliberate attempt at fixing the results. I agree if we can't
>> trust our local election results then that should be our first
>> priority rather than fretting about the National elections.
>>
>> If we find someone cheating on the local level we could perhaps
>> find a quick remedy.
>>
>> James Reynolds
>> Moscow
>>
> ___________________________________________________
>
>
>
> bbonte at moscow.com:
>
> Why even talk about fairness in national elections?
>
> In the last City of Moscow election between 360 and 520 ballots were
> allegedly not even counted. Many that were counted were allegedly
> miscounted. In my opinion, seats on the city council were stolen from
> Craine and Carscallen.
>
> Until the sleepy electorate awakens and very loudly insists that
> systems are
> put into place to insure that every voter's vote is correctly
> sensed and
> correctly tallied, it is foolish and hypocritical to speak of the
> "will of
> the people."
>
> If we can't insure fair, accurate elections on the local level,
> what chance
> is there of ever achieving them on the state and national level?
>
> A mourner of democracy lost,
>
> Wayne A. Fox
> 1009 Karen Lane
> PO Box 9421
> Moscow, ID 83843
>
> (208) 882-7975
> waf at moscow.com
>
> _____________________________________________________
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