[Vision2020] tony's worries for american women

[g. crabtree]

>From Slate magazine (no friend to conservatives)

100,000 Dead-or 8,000How many Iraqi civilians have died as a result of the 
war?
By Fred Kaplan
Posted Friday, Oct. 29, 2004, at 6:49 PM ET
The authors of a peer-reviewed study, conducted by a survey team from Johns 
Hopkins University, claim that about 100,000 Iraqi civilians have died as a 
result of the war. Yet a close look at the actual study, published online 
today by the British medical journal the Lancet, reveals that this number is 
so loose as to be meaningless.

The report's authors derive this figure by estimating how many Iraqis died 
in a 14-month period before the U.S. invasion, conducting surveys on how 
many died in a similar period after the invasion began (more on those 
surveys later), and subtracting the difference. That difference-the number 
of "extra" deaths in the post-invasion period-signifies the war's toll. That 
number is 98,000. But read the passage that cites the calculation more 
fully:

  We estimate there were 98,000 extra deaths (95% CI 8000-194 000) during 
the post-war period.

Readers who are accustomed to perusing statistical documents know what the 
set of numbers in the parentheses means. For the other 99.9 percent of you, 
I'll spell it out in plain English-which, disturbingly, the study never 
does. It means that the authors are 95 percent confident that the war-caused 
deaths totaled some number between 8,000 and 194,000. (The number cited in 
plain language-98,000-is roughly at the halfway point in this absurdly vast 
range.)

This isn't an estimate. It's a dart board.



You can read the rest of the article at http://www.slate.com/id/2108887/

I hope that helps.



g


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Andreas Schou" <ophite at gmail.com>
To: "Tony" <tonytime at clearwire.net>
Cc: <vision2020 at moscow.com>; "Bookpeople of Moscow" <Bookpeople at moscow.com>
Sent: Friday, December 15, 2006 7:10 PM
Subject: Re: [Vision2020] tony's worries for american women


> On 12/15/06, Tony <tonytime at clearwire.net> wrote:
>> Bookpeople, where did you hear that tens of thousands of woman have been
>> killed in Iraq?  Please source and date your information.
>
> The 2006 Johns Hopkins Iraqi fatality review estimated between 450,000
> and 750,000 Iraqi deaths since the beginning of the war, or one in
> forty Iraqis. Peer reviewed, published in _Lancet_, lead researcher
> Les Roberts.
>
> Hope that helps.
>
> -- ACS
>
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