[Vision2020] The Genie Is Out Of The Bottle

[Tbertruss at aol.com]

Donovan et. al.

Obviously you have not studied the issue of planning for nuclear war in 
depth.  In fact there are individuals in power in both the USA and Russia who will 
calmly discuss the survivability of a nuclear war.  The theory of MAD 
(mutually assured destruction) may not be workable in the long run to prevent nuclear 
war.  The future could bring circumstances where a nation decides they will 
take their chances at making a decisive first strike.  If a nation was going 
under already, facing a massive invasion, starvation, etc., what would they have 
to lose in using their nuclear weapons anyway?  

In fact there were members of the US military during the Cold War who wanted 
to take out the Soviet Union with a massive nuclear attack reasoning that the 
sooner we did it the less time there was for the Soviet Union to become more 
powerful.  And the brinkmanship of the theory of MAD means both sides are 
looking for a sneak attack, ready to launch as quickly as possible, to prevent the 
first strike advantage.  This hair trigger brinkmanship could lead to an all 
out nuclear war even when both sides do not want it.

Consider that we have had a nuclear arsenal for no more than 60 years or so.  
Changes inside Russia, or an expansion of China's nuclear arsenal, and the 
continuing spread of nuclear weapons technology to other nations, will make the 
nuclear weapons game much more complicated and dangerous in the future.  Think 
ahead 100 years when the world may face ecological disasters, a huge energy 
crisis with dwindling fossil fuels, a population of 15 billion, potential mass 
starvation, etc., with numerous nations with nuclear arms.

You are wrong to think that if a small group of terrorists planned to strike 
the USA with a stolen or stealthily built nuclear weapon that we would have no 
target for retaliation.  We might pick the wrong target, but what happened 
after 9/11?  I will refresh your memory to remind you that the USA has 
"retaliated" against two nations already for 9/11, an attack carried out by a small 
group of terrorists, though you can argue we have not targeted the actual 
terrorists and their support structure, who carried out 9/11.

But if Islamic terrorists knew that if they used a nuclear weapon against the 
USA that we would, for example, wipe Iran and Mecca off the map, would this 
not be some deterrent?

Ted Moffett
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