[Vision2020] Thought for the future

Sun Aug 28 09:12:41 PDT 2005

>Visionaires:

  The World Future Society outlines some interesting trends that will impact
  on our future.

  Tom Trail

>
>
>*                                **  World Future Society Report on 
>53 Trends Now Shaping the Future*
>
>For some four decades, Forecasting International has conducted an 
>ongoing study of the forces changing our world. Over the last 
>decade, our expectations have proved to be gratifyingly accurate. We 
>believed that the economy of the developed world would be much more 
>vibrant than most commentators imagined possible, and so it has 
>been. We also foresaw many of the political and social problems 
>brought about by the changing population. In all, no fewer than 95% 
>of our projections have proved correct.
>
>For their report "53 Trends Now Shaping the Future," Marvin J. 
>Cetron, president of Forecasting International Ltd., and science 
>writer Owen Davies compiled trend information across a variety of 
>sectors concerning many forces changing the world. Knowledge of 
>these trends and their ramifications will be essential for anyone 
>preparing for what lies ahead. Cetron and Davies have thoroughly 
>revised their report, covering near-term (2005-2010) as well as 
>medium-range futures (up to 2050). Three new categories have been 
>added since the report's last publication in 2003: mass migration 
>and its impacts, the rise of militant Islam, and the evaporation of 
>privacy. "Increased surveillance has become socially acceptable in 
>an age when many people fear terrorism and crime," they say.
>
>Some highlights from "53 Trends Now Shaping the Future":
>
>*Trend Number 33.** Education and training are expanding throughout society.*
>
>·    Approximately 130,000 additional K-12 teachers will be needed 
>in the United States between 2000 and 2010, according to the 
>National Center for Educational Statistics.
>
>·   Also needed: An annual $10 billion increase in federal spending 
>for programs such as Head Start, aid for disadvantaged children, the 
>Job Corps, and the Job Training Partnership Act.
>
>·   Starting salaries for teachers (as a ratio of per capita GDP) 
>declined in most OECD countries throughout the 1990s; exceptions 
>were the Netherlands and New Zealand.
>
>·   The half-life of an engineer's knowledge today is only five 
>years; in 10 years, 90% of what an engineer knows will be available 
>on the computer. In electronics, fully half of what a student learns 
>as a freshman is obsolete by his senior year.
>
>·   Eighty-five percent of the information in National Institutes of 
>Health computers is upgraded in five years.
>
>·   Rapid changes in the job market and work-related technologies 
>will necessitate increased training for virtually every worker.
>
>·   In the next 10 years, close to 10 million jobs will open up for 
>professionals, executives, and technicians in the highly skilled 
>service occupations.
>
>·   A substantial portion of the labor force will be in job 
>retraining programs at any moment. Much of this will be carried out 
>by current employers, who have come to view employee training as a 
>good investment.
>
>·   Schools will train both children and adults around the clock. 
>The academic day will stretch to seven hours for children; adults 
>use much of their remaining free time to prepare for their next job.
>
>·   We already are seeing a trend toward more adult education. One 
>reason is the need to train for new careers as old ones are 
>displaced or boomers grow bored with them. The other is the need of 
>healthy, energetic people to keep active during retirement.
>
>·   In the United States, education is moving rapidly to the 
>Internet, as small, rural grammar and high schools supplement their 
>curricula with material from larger institutions, while universities 
>increasingly market their programs to distant students.
>
>*Implications:* Even small businesses must learn to see employee 
>training as an investment, rather than an expense. Motorola 
>estimates that it reaps $30 in profits for each dollar it spends on 
>training.
>
>Both management and employees must get used to the idea of lifelong 
>learning. It will become a significant part of work life at all 
>levels. As the digital divide is erased and minority and low-income 
>households buy computers and log onto the Internet, groups now 
>disadvantaged will be increasingly able to educate and train 
>themselves for high-tech careers.
>
>
>
>*Other Trend Example summaries:*
>
>* *
>
>34. Specialization is spreading throughout industry and the professions.
>
>35. Services are the fastest-growing sector of the global economy.
>
>37. Workers are retiring later as life expectancy stretches.
>
>39. Second and third careers are becoming common, as more people 
>make mid-life changes in occupation.
>
>40. The work ethic is vanishing.
>
>41. Two-income couples are becoming the norm.
>
>45. Information-based organizations are quickly displacing the old 
>command-and-control model of management.
>
>46. A typical large business in 2010 will have fewer than half the 
>management levels of its counterpart in 1990, and about one-third 
>the number of managers.
>
>This 32-page illustrated report, including economic, societal, 
>environmental, technological, and workplace trends, is available for 
>$8 from the World Future Society.
>
>
>World Future Society, February 2005 http://www.wfs.org/pr3ma05.htm
>
>
>                                   World Future Society Report on 53 
>Trends Now Shaping the Future
>
>For some four decades, Forecasting International has conducted an 
>ongoing study of the forces changing our world. Over the last 
>decade, our expectations have proved to be gratifyingly accurate. We 
>believed that the economy of the developed world would be much more 
>vibrant than most commentators imagined possible, and so it has 
>been. We also foresaw many of the political and social problems 
>brought about by the changing population. In all, no fewer than 95% 
>of our projections have proved correct.
>
>For their report "53 Trends Now Shaping the Future," Marvin J. 
>Cetron, president of Forecasting International Ltd., and science 
>writer Owen Davies compiled trend information across a variety of 
>sectors concerning many forces changing the world. Knowledge of 
>these trends and their ramifications will be essential for anyone 
>preparing for what lies ahead. Cetron and Davies have thoroughly 
>revised their report, covering near-term (2005-2010) as well as 
>medium-range futures (up to 2050). Three new categories have been 
>added since the report's last publication in 2003: mass migration 
>and its impacts, the rise of militant Islam, and the evaporation of 
>privacy. "Increased surveillance has become socially acceptable in 
>an age when many people fear terrorism and crime," they say.
>
>Some highlights from "53 Trends Now Shaping the Future":
>
>Trend Number 33. Education and training are expanding throughout society.
>
>·    Approximately 130,000 additional K-12 teachers will be needed 
>in the United States between 2000 and 2010, according to the 
>National Center for Educational Statistics.
>
>·   Also needed: An annual $10 billion increase in federal spending 
>for programs such as Head Start, aid for disadvantaged children, the 
>Job Corps, and the Job Training Partnership Act.
>
>·   Starting salaries for teachers (as a ratio of per capita GDP) 
>declined in most OECD countries throughout the 1990s; exceptions 
>were the Netherlands and New Zealand.
>
>·   The half-life of an engineer's knowledge today is only five 
>years; in 10 years, 90% of what an engineer knows will be available 
>on the computer. In electronics, fully half of what a student learns 
>as a freshman is obsolete by his senior year.
>
>·   Eighty-five percent of the information in National Institutes of 
>Health computers is upgraded in five years.
>
>·   Rapid changes in the job market and work-related technologies 
>will necessitate increased training for virtually every worker.
>
>·   In the next 10 years, close to 10 million jobs will open up for 
>professionals, executives, and technicians in the highly skilled 
>service occupations.
>
>·   A substantial portion of the labor force will be in job 
>retraining programs at any moment. Much of this will be carried out 
>by current employers, who have come to view employee training as a 
>good investment.
>
>·   Schools will train both children and adults around the clock. 
>The academic day will stretch to seven hours for children; adults 
>use much of their remaining free time to prepare for their next job.
>
>·   We already are seeing a trend toward more adult education. One 
>reason is the need to train for new careers as old ones are 
>displaced or boomers grow bored with them. The other is the need of 
>healthy, energetic people to keep active during retirement.
>
>·   In the United States, education is moving rapidly to the 
>Internet, as small, rural grammar and high schools supplement their 
>curricula with material from larger institutions, while universities 
>increasingly market their programs to distant students.
>
>Implications: Even small businesses must learn to see employee 
>training as an investment, rather than an expense. Motorola 
>estimates that it reaps $30 in profits for each dollar it spends on 
>training.
>
>Both management and employees must get used to the idea of lifelong 
>learning. It will become a significant part of work life at all 
>levels.  As the digital divide is erased and minority and low-income 
>households buy computers and log onto the Internet, groups now 
>disadvantaged will be increasingly able to educate and train 
>themselves for high-tech careers.
>
>
>
>Other Trend Example summaries:
>
>
>
>34. Specialization is spreading throughout industry and the professions.
>
>35. Services are the fastest-growing sector of the global economy.
>
>37. Workers are retiring later as life expectancy stretches.
>
>39. Second and third careers are becoming common, as more people 
>make mid-life changes in occupation.
>
>40. The work ethic is vanishing.
>
>41. Two-income couples are becoming the norm.
>
>45. Information-based organizations are quickly displacing the old 
>command-and-control model of management.
>
>46. A typical large business in 2010 will have fewer than half the 
>management levels of its counterpart in 1990, and about one-third 
>the number of managers.
>
>This 32-page illustrated report, including economic, societal, 
>environmental, technological, and workplace trends, is available for 
>$8 from the World Future Society.
>
>
>
>World Future Society, February 2005 
><http://www.wfs.org/pr3ma05.htm>http://www.wfs.org/pr3ma05.htm
>
>
>
>
>

-- 
Dr. Tom Trail
International Trails
1375 Mt. View Rd.
Moscow, Id. 83843
Tel:  (208) 882-6077
Fax:  (208) 882-0896
e mail ttrail at moscow.com
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