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<blockquote type="cite" cite>Visionaires:</blockquote>
<div><br></div>
<div><br></div>
<div> The World Future Society outlines some interesting trends
that will impact</div>
<div> on our future.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div> Tom Trail</div>
<div><br></div>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br>
<br>
* <span
></span
> <span
></span> **
World Future Society Report on 53 Trends Now Shaping the Future*<br>
<br>
For some four decades, Forecasting International has conducted an
ongoing study of the forces changing our world. Over the last decade,
our expectations have proved to be gratifyingly accurate. We believed
that the economy of the developed world would be much more vibrant
than most commentators imagined possible, and so it has been. We also
foresaw many of the political and social problems brought about by the
changing population. In all, no fewer than 95% of our projections have
proved correct.<br>
<br>
For their report "53 Trends Now Shaping the Future," Marvin
J. Cetron, president of Forecasting International Ltd., and science
writer Owen Davies compiled trend information across a variety of
sectors concerning many forces changing the world. Knowledge of these
trends and their ramifications will be essential for anyone preparing
for what lies ahead. Cetron and Davies have thoroughly revised their
report, covering near-term (2005-2010) as well as medium-range futures
(up to 2050). Three new categories have been added since the report's
last publication in 2003: mass migration and its impacts, the rise of
militant Islam, and the evaporation of privacy. "Increased
surveillance has become socially acceptable in an age when many people
fear terrorism and crime," they say.<br>
<br>
Some highlights from "53 Trends Now Shaping the Future":<br>
<br>
*Trend Number 33.** Education and training are expanding throughout
society.*<br>
<br>
· Approximately 130,000 additional K-12 teachers
will be needed in the United States between 2000 and 2010, according
to the National Center for Educational Statistics.<br>
<br>
· Also needed: An annual $10 billion increase in federal
spending for programs such as Head Start, aid for disadvantaged
children, the Job Corps, and the Job Training Partnership Act.<br>
<br>
· Starting salaries for teachers (as a ratio of per
capita GDP) declined in most OECD countries throughout the 1990s;
exceptions were the Netherlands and New Zealand.<br>
<br>
· The half-life of an engineer's knowledge today is only
five years; in 10 years, 90% of what an engineer knows will be
available on the computer. In electronics, fully half of what a
student learns as a freshman is obsolete by his senior year.<br>
<br>
· Eighty-five percent of the information in National
Institutes of Health computers is upgraded in five years.<br>
<br>
· Rapid changes in the job market and work-related
technologies will necessitate increased training for virtually every
worker.<br>
<br>
· In the next 10 years, close to 10 million jobs will
open up for professionals, executives, and technicians in the highly
skilled service occupations.<br>
<br>
· A substantial portion of the labor force will be in
job retraining programs at any moment. Much of this will be carried
out by current employers, who have come to view employee training as a
good investment.<br>
<br>
· Schools will train both children and adults around the
clock. The academic day will stretch to seven hours for children;
adults use much of their remaining free time to prepare for their next
job.<br>
<br>
· We already are seeing a trend toward more adult
education. One reason is the need to train for new careers as old ones
are displaced or boomers grow bored with them. The other is the need
of healthy, energetic people to keep active during retirement.<br>
<br>
· In the United States, education is moving rapidly to
the Internet, as small, rural grammar and high schools supplement
their curricula with material from larger institutions, while
universities increasingly market their programs to distant
students.<br>
<br>
*Implications:* Even small businesses must learn to see employee
training as an investment, rather than an expense. Motorola estimates
that it reaps $30 in profits for each dollar it spends on
training.<br>
<br>
Both management and employees must get used to the idea of lifelong
learning. It will become a significant part of work life at all
levels. As the digital divide is erased and minority and low-income
households buy computers and log onto the Internet, groups now
disadvantaged will be increasingly able to educate and train
themselves for high-tech careers.</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br>
<br>
<br>
*Other Trend Example summaries:*<br>
<br>
* *<br>
<br>
34. Specialization is spreading throughout industry and the
professions.<br>
<br>
35. Services are the fastest-growing sector of the global economy.<br>
<br>
37. Workers are retiring later as life expectancy stretches.<br>
<br>
39. Second and third careers are becoming common, as more people make
mid-life changes in occupation.<br>
<br>
40. The work ethic is vanishing.<br>
<br>
41. Two-income couples are becoming the norm.<br>
<br>
45. Information-based organizations are quickly displacing the old
command-and-control model of management.<br>
<br>
46. A typical large business in 2010 will have fewer than half the
management levels of its counterpart in 1990, and about one-third the
number of managers.<br>
<br>
This 32-page illustrated report, including economic, societal,
environmental, technological, and workplace trends, is available for
$8 from the World Future Society.<br>
<br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>World Future Society, February 2005
http://www.wfs.org/pr3ma05.htm</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Tahoma" size="-1"><br>
<br>
</font></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font
face="Times New Roman"><b
> <span
></span
> <span
></span> </b
></font><font size="+1"><b> World Future Society Report on 53
Trends Now Shaping the Future</b></font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">For some four decades, Forecasting International has
conducted an ongoing study of the forces changing our world. Over the
last decade, our expectations have proved to be gratifyingly accurate.
We believed that the economy of the developed world would be much more
vibrant than most commentators imagined possible, and so it has been.
We also foresaw many of the political and social problems brought
about by the changing population. In all, no fewer than 95% of our
projections have proved correct.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">For their report "53 Trends Now Shaping the Future,"
Marvin J. Cetron, president of Forecasting International Ltd., and
science writer Owen Davies compiled trend information across a variety
of sectors concerning many forces changing the world. Knowledge of
these trends and their ramifications will be essential for anyone
preparing for what lies ahead. Cetron and Davies have thoroughly
revised their report, covering near-term (2005-2010) as well as
medium-range futures (up to 2050). Three new categories have been
added since the report's last publication in 2003: mass migration
and its impacts, the rise of militant Islam, and the evaporation of
privacy. "Increased surveillance has become socially acceptable
in an age when many people fear terrorism and crime," they
say.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">Some highlights from "53 Trends Now Shaping the
Future":</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1"><b>Trend Number 33.</b></font><font size="-1"><b> Education
and training are expanding throughout society.</b></font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">· Approximately 130,000 additional K-12
teachers will be needed in the United States between 2000 and 2010,
according to the National Center for Educational
Statistics.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">· Also needed: An annual $10 billion
increase in federal spending for programs such as Head Start, aid for
disadvantaged children, the Job Corps, and the Job Training
Partnership Act.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">· Starting salaries for teachers (as a
ratio of per capita GDP) declined in most OECD countries throughout
the 1990s; exceptions were the Netherlands and New Zealand.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">· The half-life of an engineer's
knowledge today is only five years; in 10 years, 90% of what an
engineer knows will be available on the computer. In electronics,
fully half of what a student learns as a freshman is obsolete by his
senior year.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">· Eighty-five percent of the information in
National Institutes of Health computers is upgraded in five
years.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">· Rapid changes in the job market and
work-related technologies will necessitate increased training for
virtually every worker.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">· In the next 10 years, close to 10 million
jobs will open up for professionals, executives, and technicians in
the highly skilled service occupations.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">· A substantial portion of the labor force
will be in job retraining programs at any moment. Much of this will be
carried out by current employers, who have come to view employee
training as a good investment.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">· Schools will train both children and
adults around the clock. The academic day will stretch to seven hours
for children; adults use much of their remaining free time to prepare
for their next job.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">· We already are seeing a trend toward more
adult education. One reason is the need to train for new careers as
old ones are displaced or boomers grow bored with them. The other is
the need of healthy, energetic people to keep active during
retirement.</font></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">· In the United States, education is moving
rapidly to the Internet, as small, rural grammar and high schools
supplement their curricula with material from larger institutions,
while universities increasingly market their programs to distant
students.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1"><b>Implications:</b></font><font size="-1"> Even small
businesses must learn to see employee training as an investment,
rather than an expense. Motorola estimates that it reaps $30 in
profits for each dollar it spends on training.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">Both management and employees must get used to the idea of
lifelong learning. It will become a significant part of work life at
all levels. As the digital divide is erased and minority and
low-income households buy computers and log onto the Internet, groups
now disadvantaged will be increasingly able to educate and train
themselves for high-tech careers.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1"> </font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1"><b>Other Trend Example summaries:</b></font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1"><b> </b></font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">34. Specialization is spreading throughout industry and the
professions.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">35. Services are the fastest-growing sector of the global
economy.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">37. Workers are retiring later as life expectancy
stretches.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">39. Second and third careers are becoming common, as more
people make mid-life changes in occupation.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">40. The work ethic is vanishing.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">41. Two-income couples are becoming the norm.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">45. Information-based organizations are quickly displacing
the old command-and-control model of management.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">46. A typical large business in 2010 will have fewer than
half the management levels of its counterpart in 1990, and about
one-third the number of managers.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">This 32-page illustrated report, including economic,
societal, environmental, technological, and workplace trends, is
available for $8 from the World Future Society.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1"> </font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">World Future Society, February 2005</font> <a
href="http://www.wfs.org/pr3ma05.htm"><font face="Times New Roman"
size="-1">http://www.wfs.org/pr3ma05.htm</font></a><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
color="#000000"> </font><br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><font face="Times New Roman"
color="#000000"> </font></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><tt><br></tt></blockquote>
<div><br></div>
<div>-- <br>
Dr. Tom Trail<br>
International Trails<br>
1375 Mt. View Rd.<br>
Moscow, Id. 83843<br>
Tel: (208) 882-6077<br>
Fax: (208) 882-0896<br>
e mail ttrail@moscow.com</div>
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