[Vision2020] 09-24-04 LA Times: Violence Belies Positive Picture

[Art Deco aka W. Fox]

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-reality24sep24.story
Violence Belies Positive Picture
Few agree with Allawi's assessment as anxiety grips the nation amid a surge in 
attacks.
By Patrick J. McDonnell
Times Staff Writer

September 24, 2004

BAGHDAD - Large swaths of Iraq remain outside the control of the interim 
government, major highways are fraught with attackers, and interim Prime 
Minister Iyad Allawi - along with the U.S. Embassy and much of the international 
community - must conduct business in fortified compounds guarded by tanks, blast 
walls and barbed wire.

In Washington, Allawi gave Congress an upbeat assessment Thursday, but the 
situation in Iraq is more complicated.

Allawi said the Iraqi people were making steady progress in taking control of 
the nation's affairs. His interim government had assumed sovereignty from the 
U.S.-led occupation. It had reopened schools and hospitals damaged in the war. 
Despite attacks, hundreds of Iraqis were still volunteering to join the police 
and army. And he pledged that the country would hold elections in January.

Widespread anxiety engulfed much of Iraq this month as a wave of car bombings, 
kidnappings and gun battles killed scores of American soldiers, Iraqi civilians 
and hostages.

The continuing violence has overshadowed signs of progress and put a damper on 
the prospect of democratic elections.

"How can we hold elections when they will bomb every polling booth?" asked 
Husham Mahdi, a 29-year-old communications engineer in Baghdad, echoing a common 
sentiment.

In a question and answer session after his speech to Congress, Allawi described 
Baghdad as "very good and safe."

In the city of Samarra, Allawi noted, a new police chief had been appointed and 
Iraqi forces were patrolling the city "in close coordination" with the U.S.-led 
coalition. But U.S. commanders say the insurgent stronghold, which the Army 
recently entered for the first time in months, remains far from pacified.

"Samarra is not over with," said Lt. Col. James Stockmoe, intelligence officer 
with the 1st Infantry Division, which patrols Samarra.

The police chief appointed this month, at least the 12th since Saddam Hussein's 
ouster, resigned within a few days after receiving death threats.

Some U.S. military officials fear that the city's police force is largely in 
cahoots with insurgents, giving them access to weapons and vehicles. In July, a 
suicide bomber used a police vehicle to plow into the Army base outside Samarra, 
killing five U.S. soldiers and injuring 18.

Allawi blamed the American media for failing to report some of the positive 
steps his government had taken with the help of the U.S.-led coalition. He cited 
social programs such as polio vaccinations and other efforts. He said thousands 
of Iraqis had gotten jobs, salaries had increased dramatically and the economy 
"has finally started to flourish."

Allawi praised efforts to train more soldiers and police and said the 
performance of the new Iraqi security forces was "improving every day."

U.S. commanders credit Iraqi forces for helping to rid Najaf of fighters loyal 
to radical cleric Muqtada Sadr. But it remains questionable whether they can 
take on insurgents without U.S. help. Shortages of equipment and personnel 
continue to plague the forces.

On a recent visit to Baqubah, where police have often been targeted, Army Lt. 
Gen. David H. Petraeus - who is overseeing the training of Iraqi forces - 
listened as local police and national guard officers said they desperately 
needed more trained officers and equipment. His visit came a few days after 11 
provincial police officers were killed in a drive-by attack.

"We've got to create a training academy here," said Petraeus, who also offered 
to ship new armored vehicles, body armor and other gear from Baghdad.

The continued inability of Iraqi forces to secure areas after U.S. offensives 
has been a major reason such operations have been put on hold in places like 
Samarra and Fallouja.

"We have got the tactical ability to do just about anything, but what I don't 
want to do is create a vacuum," Lt. Gen. Thomas F. Metz, operational chief for 
U.S.-led multinational forces, said in a recent interview.

Allawi said that in the city of Tall Afar, in northwestern Iraq, the interim 
government had "reversed" an attempted insurgent takeover.

Reports from the city indicate that masked rebels no longer control the town. 
But the city's Turkmen majority, regarded a U.S. ally, is resentful after what 
it views as excessive American force and bombing, which was approved by Allawi's 
government.

Allawi also cited "success" in Najaf and Kufa, where residents celebrated the 
ouster of Sadr, the militant cleric.

Although the militia was routed in both cities, many fighters appear to have 
moved to Baghdad's Sadr City neighborhood. Daily firefights and roadside bombs 
have plagued the U.S. there.

Allawi said it was "a fact" that elections could be held in 15 of Iraq's 18 
provinces "tomorrow." But few experts would agree. The consensus among 
poll-watchers is that holding nationwide elections by January, as scheduled, 
will be difficult.

Apart from the widespread violence, the provinces lack electoral 
infrastructure - which some view as a greater challenge than security.

And critics say it is hard to argue that security is a problem in only three 
provinces of a nation where suicide bombers have struck from Basra in the south 
to Irbil in the north.

Allawi cited the renovation of schools and clinics and the restoration of many 
services as signs of progress. But many Iraqis note that the schools were open 
before Hussein's ouster, and power blackouts and gasoline shortages remain major 
irritants.

Allawi's upbeat assessment did not mention a core problem - the 
disenfranchisement of the Sunni Muslim minority.

Sunni Muslims, who lost their preferred status after Hussein's defeat, launched 
the insurgency that has managed to hold off the world's most powerful military.

"They are the key to the population here," said Col. John C. Coleman, chief of 
staff of the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force, which patrols the Sunni heartland 
to the west and north of Baghdad. "Many of them look to the central government 
not as their advocate.. There are many who would just like a seat at the table 
and don't quite understand how to get there just yet. They are frustrated by the 
process."

Allawi's overtures to the residents of Samarra, Fallouja and Ramadi - 
Sunni-dominated cities still far from government control - have yielded no 
lasting breakthroughs.

In his speech Thursday, the interim prime minister did not highlight Fallouja, 
which has become a sanctuary for insurgents and the target of intense U.S. 
bombings supported by his government. City leaders who have met with 
representatives of the interim government say it has lost credibility because of 
close U.S. ties.

"There were some promises made," said Ahmad Hardan, a physician from Fallouja 
who has been in talks with Allawi's envoys. "But we started to realize that 
whenever our delegation would go back to Baghdad, the city of Fallouja would be 
bombed. And we would start asking, 'Why is this happening? Where are the 
promises?' "


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Special correspondents Caesar Ahmed and Suhail Ahmed contributed to this report.


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