[Vision2020] 10-11-04 CNN: Poll: Iraq war hiked terror fears

[Art Deco aka W. Fox]

Poll: Iraq war hiked terror fears
Leaders who opposed military action fare well in AP surveys
Monday, October 11, 2004 Posted: 5:58 PM EDT (2158 GMT)


WASHINGTON (AP) -- More than two-thirds of the people living in Australia, 
Britain and Italy -- three countries allied with the United States in the Iraq 
war -- believe the war has increased the threat of terrorism.

Leaders of those countries -- prime ministers Tony Blair of Britain, John Howard 
of Australia and Silvio Berlusconi of Italy -- all get low marks from their 
people for their handling of the war on terrorism, an Associated Press-Ipsos 
poll shows.

More than half of those in the United States, 52 percent, believe the Iraq war 
has increased the threat of terrorism, while three in 10 in the United States 
think it has decreased the threat -- a view promoted by President Bush.

"In the context of the presidential campaign in the United States, this is 
undeniably a blow for George W. Bush, since it shows that a majority of 
Americans don't agree with the main justification for his policy in Iraq," said 
Gilles Corman, research director at Ipsos-Inra of Belgium, who studies public 
opinion trends across Europe.

In Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, a majority thought last winter 
that the Iraq war was increasing the threat of terrorism. That number has 
increased in each of the countries. Australians were not polled in the AP-Ipsos 
project last winter.

In Australia and each of five European countries polled, only about one in 20 
believe the Iraq war decreased the terror threat.

Leaders of several countries that opposed the Iraq war get strong ratings from 
their citizens on how they are handling terrorism.

Political leaders in the Iraq war coalition have faced domestic political 
pressure because of their stance on Iraq.


a.. Howard won re-election Saturday despite criticism in Australia of his 
support for the Iraq war. The public was evenly divided on Howard's handling of 
terrorism, with only 44 percent approving, but he apparently was helped by 
Australia's strong economy.


a.. Bush faces the voters again in early November in a campaign that is 
increasingly focused on Iraq, with public doubts about the impact of the Iraq 
war on the terrorism fight.


a.. In Britain, the poll found only one-third approve of Blair's handling of the 
war on terror. Friday's announcement of the beheading in Iraq of British hostage 
Kenneth Bigley is likely to increase pressure on Blair.


a.. Berlusconi has seen Italians' fears of terrorism increase sharply since last 
winter -- from seven in 10 worried about terrorism in February to almost nine in 
10 now. Only about one-third of Italians approve of Berlusconi's handling of 
terrorism. Two Italian women taken hostage in Iraq were freed last month, and an 
Iraqi who lived in Italy was executed by kidnappers in Iraq early this month. 
Berlusconi has pledged to lead the country until the end of his term in 2006.

In contrast, the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Mexico and Spain all get 
high marks for their handling of terrorism, with a majority in each country 
saying they approve, according to polls conducted for the AP by Ipsos, an 
international polling firm.

French President Jacques Chirac, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, Mexican 
President Vicente Fox and Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero 
have all publicly opposed the U.S.-led war in Iraq. Canadian Prime Minister Paul 
Martin has been less outspoken in his criticism of the war than some of the 
European leaders, but Canada didn't send troops to Iraq.

The leaders position on the Iraq war is only one of many factors that could 
affect public perception of their handling of terrorism.

Heightened feeling of insecurity
"The proportion of people worried by the terrorist threat has increased in most 
of the countries ... since February," said Corman of Ipsos in Belgium. "People 
feel more and more insecure."

Fears of terrorism increased in seven of the eight countries polled last winter 
and again this fall.

Only in Germany did those worries ease this year. Terrorism fears were high 
early this year after the killing of 14 German tourists in 2002 at a Tunisian 
resort and the revelation that some September 11 hijackers were part of a terror 
cell in Hamburg.

But public debate in Germany this year has focused on reforms of the social 
system, labor regulations and the health-care system, moving discussion of 
terrorism out of the spotlight, said Christian Holst, director of public affairs 
for Ipsos-Germany.

Overall, terrorism and the war in Iraq are likely to stay at the center of 
public debate in most of the European countries in coming months, said Pierre 
Giacometti, chief executive and co-director of Ipsos.

The AP-Ipsos telephone polls of about 1,000 adults in each of the eight 
countries except Mexico were taken between September 23 and October 2 and have a 
margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The poll in 
Mexico of 1,030 adults was taken face-to-face from September 23-26 and has a 
margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
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