[Vision2020] Kerry's election to lose?
JSullivan
jsullivan@moscow.com
Fri, 7 May 2004 21:06:21 -0700
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I would like to know who took the photos as well. I would like to THANK =
them. Would we, the public ever have known, if not for those photos?
I am in the dark, literally about most of this as I don't have a =
television. If anyone can refer me to accurate reporting, I would =
appreciate it.
Thank you,
Janesta Carcich Sullivan
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Pat Kraut=20
To: vision2020=20
Sent: Friday, May 07, 2004 10:15 AM
Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Kerry's election to lose?
What she actually said is: "Hold on to your seats, its going to be a =
bumpy night."
The soldier only told the press, as I am hearing it on the coverage of =
the committee hearings it was already under investigation. All he has =
done is make a name for himself in the news. I have so many questions =
about this and so far many of the senators are only pontificating =
getting their 'sound bite' in. I am waiting and listening till we get to =
more info. What I'd really like to know is who took the photos and what =
were they going to do with them if not give them to the press? Save them =
for their grandchildren? It is all seriously stupid.=20
PK
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Hansen=20
To: Pat Kraut ; vision2020=20
Sent: Friday, May 07, 2004 5:51 AM
Subject: RE: [Vision2020] Kerry's election to lose?
Alas! Something that Ms. Kraut and I can truly agree upon.
Yes. I think that the election in November is going to make the one =
in 2000 look like a grade school vote for hallway monitor.
Just under six months to go with virtually a dead-even race between =
Bush and Kerry with Nader's 3% to 6% in the balance, not to mention 275 =
million Americans.
As a famous actress once said, "Fasten your seat belts. It's going =
to get a little bumpy."
Put on your raincoat, as well. The weather forecast is for isolated =
and increased muckslinging from now through October.
As Don Henley put it so aptly:
Dirty little secrets
Dirty little lies
We got our dirty little fingers in everybody's pie
We love to cut you down to size
We love dirty laundry
Take care,
Tom Hansen
Just another liberal elitist loose in the Palouse
"Patriotism is not a short and frenzied outburst of emotion but the =
tranquil and steady dedication of a lifetime."=20
- - Adlai E. Stevenson, Jr.
=20
-----Original Message-----
From: vision2020-admin@moscow.com =
[mailto:vision2020-admin@moscow.com]On Behalf Of Pat Kraut
Sent: Thursday, May 06, 2004 10:23 PM
To: vision2020
Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Kerry's election to lose?
This is most interesting. Anyone brave enough to actually make a =
prediction on this election is amazing. I for one would not make any =
call at all. Yes, I know how I will vote and that is probably the same =
as this state but that is not a surprise. It is the surprise states that =
will make the difference. It will make for a long night.=20
PK
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Joan Opyr=20
To: Vision2020 Moscow=20
Sent: Thursday, May 06, 2004 3:40 PM
Subject: [Vision2020] Kerry's election to lose?
Snipped from a piece by Paul M. Weyrich, detailing speakers and =
events at a recent conservative gathering, for CNSNews, 5/5/04:=20
". . . . But it was pollster John Zogby who gave the most =
intriguing briefing. Zogby has to be taken seriously because he got it =
right when almost all the pollsters had it wrong in 2000. He also caught =
the slight tilt toward the Republicans on the eve of the 2002 elections. =
What he told the group upset most of them -- but his message =
came through loud and clear. While most pollsters view this election as =
Bush's to lose, he believes this election is Kerry's to lose.=20
He said that usually at this time of year, 20-25% of the =
electorate is undecided, but this year there only 5% of the electorate =
is undecided. Finding such people when polling is becoming exceedingly =
difficult, he told us. Moreover, the soft vote, that is the people who =
MIGHT be persuaded to vote for the other guy, is only 10% -- a historic =
low.=20
Zogby believes that this election most resembles that of 1800 =
when John Adams was running for re-election. Thomas Jefferson was his =
opponent. He surprised the group by reciting some of the nasty things =
that were said by both sides in that election. Zogby said that when we =
hear that this is the nastiest election in history, it is not =
necessarily the case.=20
Zogby went on to detail his thesis that there really are two =
Americas. The social and political differences between the "blue" =
states, which Al Gore carried in 2000, and the "red" states, which Bush =
carried in that election, are profound in every category and becoming =
more so.=20
Thus, Bush is really trying to carry those states that he =
carried in 2000 plus a few others while Kerry is trying to keep what =
Gore carried. If he can just add a state or two to the Gore =
total...Kerry wins. Zogby suggested it might be possible for Bush to =
carry the popular vote but lose the election, the reverse of what =
happened in 2000 when Gore had more than a half million votes more than =
Bush.=20
Zogby told us that while this is Kerry's election to lose, he =
might just lose it. He absolutely dismissed suggestions that are coming =
up from both the left and right that Kerry is proving to be such a bad =
candidate he might be replaced. He thinks Kerry will rise to the =
occasion at the end of the campaign, when it counts.=20
Zogby said to remember Gov. Bill Weld, who was thought to be the =
favorite against Kerry but who lost a close election when Kerry came =
alive and beat him. He said Kerry, like Bush in 2000, is constantly =
underestimated. He thinks veterans will be crucial in this election and =
right now Kerry has an edge with veterans because he has emphasized them =
so much and because there is some dissatisfaction with the way that Bush =
is handling the war. That however, according to Zogby, could change.=20
While most re-election campaigns tend to be decisive, that is, =
we re-elect the incumbent overwhelmingly (think Reagan or Clinton) or we =
toss him out of office by a wide margin (think Hoover or Carter), Zogby =
believes this election, barring some unforeseen events, is going to be =
another nail-biter. He insists that Ohio is this year's Florida, =
although the White House disputes that. They believe they have an =
excellent chance to carry Ohio. No Republican in modern times has won =
the Presidency without Ohio=20
After this daylong briefing, which began at noon and ended at 6 =
p.m, we adjourned to dinner, where the buzz was all about Zogby's =
comments. The participants in the briefing were all influential people. =
Zogby shook them to the core." =20
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bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I would like to know who took the photos as =
well. I would=20
like to THANK them. Would we, the public ever have known, if not for =
those=20
photos?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I am in the dark, literally about most of this =
as I don't=20
have a television. If anyone can refer me to accurate reporting, I would =
appreciate it.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Thank you,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Janesta Carcich Sullivan</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dpkraut@moscow.com href=3D"mailto:pkraut@moscow.com">Pat =
Kraut</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dvision2020@moscow.com=20
href=3D"mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">vision2020</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 07, 2004 =
10:15 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [Vision2020] =
Kerry's=20
election to lose?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>What she actually said is: "Hold on to your =
seats, its=20
going to be a bumpy night."</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The soldier only told the press, as I am =
hearing it on=20
the coverage of the committee hearings it was already under =
investigation. All=20
he has done is make a name for himself in the news. I have so many =
questions=20
about this and so far many of the senators are only pontificating =
getting=20
their 'sound bite' in. I am waiting and listening till we get to more =
info.=20
What I'd really like to know is who took the photos and what were they =
going=20
to do with them if not give them to the press? Save them for their=20
grandchildren? It is all seriously stupid. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PK</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dthansen@moscow.com href=3D"mailto:thansen@moscow.com">Tom =
Hansen</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dpkraut@moscow.com=20
href=3D"mailto:pkraut@moscow.com">Pat Kraut</A> ; <A=20
title=3Dvision2020@moscow.com=20
href=3D"mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">vision2020</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 07, 2004 =
5:51=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [Vision2020] =
Kerry's=20
election to lose?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004>Alas! Something that Ms. =
Kraut and=20
I can truly agree upon.</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004>Yes. I think that the =
election in=20
November is going to make the one in 2000 look like a grade school =
vote for=20
hallway monitor.</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004>Just under six months to go =
with=20
virtually a dead-even race between Bush and Kerry with Nader's =
3% to 6%=20
in the balance, not to mention 275 million Americans.</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004>As a famous actress once said, =
"Fasten=20
your seat belts. It's going to get a little =
bumpy."</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004>Put on your raincoat, as =
well. The=20
weather forecast is for isolated and increased muckslinging from now =
through=20
October.</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004>As Don Henley put it so=20
aptly:</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004><!--StartFragment -->Dirty =
little=20
secrets<BR>Dirty little lies<BR>We got our dirty little fingers in=20
everybody=92s pie<BR>We love to cut you down to size<BR>We love =
dirty=20
laundry</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004>Take care,</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004>Tom Hansen</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004>Just another liberal elitist =
loose in=20
the Palouse</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004>
<DIV><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Arial Unicode MS'; =
mso-bidi-font-family: 'Arial Unicode MS'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; =
mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">"Patriotism=20
is not a short and frenzied outburst of emotion but the tranquil and =
steady=20
dedication of a lifetime." </SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Arial Unicode MS'; =
mso-bidi-font-family: 'Arial Unicode MS'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; =
mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">-<SPAN=20
class=3D553073812-07052004> </SPAN>-<SPAN =
class=3D553073812-07052004>=20
</SPAN>Adlai E. Stevenson, Jr.</SPAN></DIV> </SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 =
2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
vision2020-admin@moscow.com =
[mailto:vision2020-admin@moscow.com]<B>On=20
Behalf Of </B>Pat Kraut<BR><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, May 06, 2004 =
10:23=20
PM<BR><B>To:</B> vision2020<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [Vision2020] =
Kerry's=20
election to lose?<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This is most interesting. Anyone brave =
enough to=20
actually make a prediction on this election is amazing. I for one =
would=20
not make any call at all. Yes, I know how I will vote and that is =
probably=20
the same as this state but that is not a surprise. It is the =
surprise=20
states that will make the difference. It will make for a long =
night.=20
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PK</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dauntiestablishment@hotmail.com=20
href=3D"mailto:auntiestablishment@hotmail.com">Joan Opyr</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dvision2020@moscow.com=20
href=3D"mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">Vision2020 Moscow</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, May 06, =
2004 3:40=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [Vision2020] =
Kerry's=20
election to lose?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<P>Snipped from a piece by Paul M. Weyrich, =
detailing speakers=20
and events at a recent conservative gathering, for =
<I>CNSNews,=20
5/5/04:</I> <BR></P>
<P>". . . . But it was pollster John Zogby who gave the most =
intriguing=20
briefing. Zogby has to be taken seriously because he got it =
right when=20
almost all the pollsters had it wrong in 2000. He also caught =
the slight=20
tilt toward the Republicans on the eve of the 2002 elections. =
</P>
<P>What he told the group upset most of them -- but his message =
came=20
through loud and clear. While most pollsters view this election =
as=20
Bush's to lose, he believes this election is Kerry's to lose.=20
<P>He said that usually at this time of year, 20-25% of the =
electorate=20
is undecided, but this year there only 5% of the electorate is=20
undecided. Finding such people when polling is becoming =
exceedingly=20
difficult, he told us. Moreover, the soft vote, that is the =
people who=20
MIGHT be persuaded to vote for the other guy, is only 10% -- a =
historic=20
low.=20
<P>Zogby believes that this election most resembles that of 1800 =
when=20
John Adams was running for re-election. Thomas Jefferson was his =
opponent. He surprised the group by reciting some of the nasty =
things=20
that were said by both sides in that election. Zogby said that =
when we=20
hear that this is the nastiest election in history, it is not=20
necessarily the case.=20
<P>Zogby went on to detail his thesis that there really are two=20
Americas. The social and political differences between the =
"blue"=20
states, which Al Gore carried in 2000, and the "red" states, =
which Bush=20
carried in that election, are profound in every category and =
becoming=20
more so.=20
<P>Thus, Bush is really trying to carry those states that he =
carried in=20
2000 plus a few others while Kerry is trying to keep what Gore =
carried.=20
If he can just add a state or two to the Gore total...Kerry =
wins. Zogby=20
suggested it might be possible for Bush to carry the popular =
vote but=20
lose the election, the reverse of what happened in 2000 when =
Gore had=20
more than a half million votes more than Bush.=20
<P>Zogby told us that while this is Kerry's election to lose, he =
might=20
just lose it. He absolutely dismissed suggestions that are =
coming up=20
from both the left and right that Kerry is proving to be such a =
bad=20
candidate he might be replaced. He thinks Kerry will rise to the =
occasion at the end of the campaign, when it counts.=20
<P>Zogby said to remember Gov. Bill Weld, who was thought to be =
the=20
favorite against Kerry but who lost a close election when Kerry =
came=20
alive and beat him. He said Kerry, like Bush in 2000, is =
constantly=20
underestimated. He thinks veterans will be crucial in this =
election and=20
right now Kerry has an edge with veterans because he has =
emphasized them=20
so much and because there is some dissatisfaction with the way =
that Bush=20
is handling the war. That however, according to Zogby, could =
change.=20
<P>While most re-election campaigns tend to be decisive, that =
is, we=20
re-elect the incumbent overwhelmingly (think Reagan or Clinton) =
or we=20
toss him out of office by a wide margin (think Hoover or =
Carter), Zogby=20
believes this election, barring some unforeseen events, is going =
to be=20
another nail-biter. He insists that Ohio is this year's Florida, =
although the White House disputes that. They believe they have =
an=20
excellent chance to carry Ohio. No Republican in modern times =
has won=20
the Presidency without Ohio=20
<P>After this daylong briefing, which began at noon and ended at =
6 p.m,=20
we adjourned to dinner, where the buzz was all about Zogby's =
comments.=20
The participants in the briefing were all influential people. =
Zogby=20
shook them to the core." =20
<P> </P><BR clear=3Dall>
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